Utah’s Unique Superstar: On Gobert’s Greatness, Continued Growth and Possible Extension

Chances are really good that Rudy Gobert is better than you think is. (Original photo: Kim Raff)

All-NBA center Rudy Gobert might be the league’s most misunderstood superstar. He also might be on the verge of being obscenely rich, which makes this a good time to try to suss out just how much impact he has on winning. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year has less than a week left to sign a supermax contract extension, and the discussion among fans and pundits about Gobert’s potential payday makes one thing clear: most people still don’t realize how good he is.

Let’s start here: Gobert is elite. Like, superstar elite. Because his impact looks different than most of the game’s top dozen or so megastars, it’s easy to forget that he changes the game at the level of an MVP candidate. That’s not an exaggeration. 

He is a top 15 impact player as measured by PIPM, RAPTOR, RAPTOR WAR, Win Shares, RPM, VORP and Total Points Added. Only six other players in the entire league were unamimously top-15 in all of those metrics, and those six guys were all serious MVP candidates: Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic. With one exception, those were the top five finishers in the 2019-20 MVP vote (Jokic was 9th), while Gobert wasn’t mentioned on a single ballot.

If we valued defensive impact as much as we valued guys who alter games with the ball in their hands, Gobert would be on the fringes of the MVP discussion every year. 

It’s a running joke on NBA nerd Twitter that the way to differentiate between a casual fan and someone who understands the nuanced nature of winning basketball is to ask what they think of Gobert. Someone whose NBA diet mostly consists of SportsCenter highlights and TNT games will largely be oblivious to the enormous impact Gobert has on winning, and the myriad ways he defines the terms of engagement at both ends of the floor. He might be the most schemed-for player in the NBA, because opposing coaches have to prepare their teams not only for his stifling presence at one end of the court, but also for his game-changing gravity as one of the league’s very best roll men.

Let’s look at the impact he has on the offensive end of the court as well as a glimpse at how his game is still evolving, and then we’ll circle back to what it all means as it relates to a payday that could net Gobert up to $227 million over five seasons.

More than a defensive superstar

You already know about his defensive impact. He remains the standard for a rim-protecting, system-defining defensive big. But he’s probably underrated even here, as most people probably still don’t realize that he wins at least as many games with a late block or stop as even the top offensive superstars win with a clutch bucket. 

But again, you don’t need me to tell you about Gobert’s defensive value. Let’s talk about the offensive end, where his influence is completely understated.

Tracking systems allow us to quantify the impact different roll men have on defenses — how often does a particular diving big draw extra help and break the defense, etc. They call it “roll gravity.” Gobert typically occupies (or is not far from) the very top spot in the league at creating gravity for his teammates by being one of the most feared rollers in the NBA. If you can’t take my word for it, check out these tweets over time from @The_Bball_Index, or read this analysis from an exasperated Nuggets beat writer during the recent Denver-Utah playoff series.

Rudy Gobert’s roll gravity has decimated this Nuggets defense today. They are so concerned with his pressence at the rim that everything else is opening open for the Jazz.

— T.J. McBride (@TJMcBrideNBA) August 8, 2020

In other words, Gobert is a dominant offensive force, whether or not he ever gets the ball on a given play. When he does get the ball, he’s merely the best volume P&R finisher in the league. Only Atlanta’s John Collins finishes as many possessions on the roll as Gobert and matches his per-possession efficiency in that play type. Zooming out from just P&R plays, he has the highest overall field goal percentage in the NBA since the 2017-18 season. Which is why Gobert is central to every opposing defense’s scouting report.

This is a different game than the one McBride was referring to, but watch how three Nuggets surround Gobert (and a fourth is leaning away from his man just in case) even though he is still 17 feet from the basket when he makes the catch. Teams are just terrified of Gobert as a roller.

Gobert draws a crowd (Game still)

Is that worth less than the guy who has the ball at the start of those actions? Not necessarily. Some ball handlers are better or worse at creating an advantage for their team by attacking in those situations. Gobert is consistently elite at the part of the symphony he’s responsible for, and the rest of the music just wouldn’t sound as good if anybody else held that instrument. There’s a reason the Jazz’s team true shooting figure is 4.5 percentage points higher when Gobert is on the court; he makes life easier for the ball handlers, the shooters, everybody.

People snicker at all the screen assist talk, and that’s fine. It is a funny, almost patronizing way to describe the offensive contributions of someone who is much, much more than a large human obstacle. The reality is that every defender on the court is always aware of where Gobert is and concerned with how to guard him in core actions. I’ve been in opposing locker rooms and seen Gobert’s name circled and underlined on the whiteboard. He’s a known offensive threat, just not the same kind we’re used to raving about.

Still improving

If Gobert never improved an inch past this point, he would already be far more impactful to winning basketball games than 95% of NBA fans realize. But he is improving. Even in the last season or two, we’ve seen him get better at little things that might seem subtle, but actually make a huge difference. We’ll talk about three of them:

1. Finishing after putting it on the floor
2. Short roll passing
3. Guarding in space

Finishing. The fact that he’s now able to finish with 1- and 2-dribble moves forces teams to respect him even when he catches further out. That’s why in the screen shot above, Denver sends three defenders to him above the free throw line. That’s a new development in his game, and some of the finesse we’ve seen from him has been downright nasty.

OK, that last one was a little gratuitous, since that’s not really his typical M.O. But try to imagine him making that move just a few short years ago. For that matter, try to imagine any of those moves from 2016 Gobert. He’s catching the ball clear out at 18 feet and beyond, and still putting pressure on the rim with softer hands, better footwork, and more creativity on the finish. Oh, and his body: the rather large Kristaps Porzingis just bounces of Gobert twice in the video above.

Look, if he can get away with merely catching and dunking every trip down, he should. That’s the most efficient shot in basketball, and it’s not like he’s getting extra points for dribbling first. It’s just that having these types of moves and finishes in his bag of tools puts pressure on the defense at very different points on the floor. Teams are already worried about him catching the ball near the rim, and now they have to worry about him catching 18 feet away, too. That’s why it’s noteworthy that last year was his best season yet at producing efficient shots after one or more dribbles.

Gobert is diversifying his finishes. (Source: NBA tracking)

Short-roll passing. Our Trevor Gustaveson wrote a whole piece on this during the playoffs, so I’ll save you from reading a bunch more words about this development. Just watch some of Gobert’s burgeoning ability to read the help and unload the basketball on time.

Those are all pretty simple but important reads, knowing that the help will likely come from the weak corner. Once in that set of plays he has to look to the top instead, but the principle is the same. On the second to last play he essentially gives up a wide open dunk to let Bojan Bogdanovic do more damage from outside. That last touch pass to Royce O’Neale in the Portland game was extra nice, especially given score and situation.

Most of Gobert’s assists still come on dribble pitches and hand-offs, one way Utah tries to punish teams for dropping the big on screens out front. But decoding the defensive help is an important skill for a diving big to have, and Gobert is making that read more often these days.

And there are a lot more of these that aren’t direct Gobert assists — those passes enhance the team’s ability to exploit an advantage created by Gobert’s gravity and get the blender going, too. (He’s also making other passes a bigger part of his game, hitting cutters from the elbow or nail.)

Guarding in space. But perhaps the most important development to his game has been an improved ability to guard in space. Teams have tried to use switches and small lineups to make Gobert uncomfortable in the past, especially in the protracted chess match that is a playoff series. But as he has grown more elite at guarding switches and isos, it’s no longer wise for guards to hunt Gobert.

Yet for some reason guards still hunt him out, and get wide-eyed and excited when they get the switch. Just watch Charlotte’s lead guards take turns gleefully fishing for Gobert switches and then settling for forced stepbacks or getting their layups spiked.

Those aren’t isolated incidents, tracking stats say. When an iso scorer uses the possession against Gobert, he allows just 0.66 points on average, tied for literally the best figure of any big man in the league with a minimum of 60 such plays. (He’s tied with Jokic and Bam Adebayo; Ivica Zubac is the best iso-guarding big at 0.57, but on literally half the possessions guarded.)

It’s still better for Gobert and the Jazz if he can most often do what he does best: control the team defense from the paint. But it’s no longer a disadvantage when he does get pulled away. That will keep him on the floor more and neutralize somewhat the strategy of going 5-out against the Jazz or fishing for switches.

Extension eligible

So what is all of that worth? That’s a complicated question. For some reason, the marketplace treats defensive superstars differently than offensive ones. That’s probably unfair and arbitrary, but it’s a reality that makes finding the starting point for Utah’s negotiation with Gobert a little more challenging. In a vacuum, it would be hard to blame the Jazz for throwing every penny of the supermax at Gobert, based on the impact we discussed above. But given their specific roster and money situation, they’ll probably try to come in lower than that while still recognizing the big man’s value. That’s OK too, but obviously a delicate dance as it related to Gobert’s feelings and long-term commitment to Utah.

If the Jazz and Gobert agree to an extension before the close of business on December 21, they can give him any amount up to a 5-year, $227 million extension that would start with the 2021-22 season. They can give him less than that, but it has to start at $33.6M, the 30% max figure. With standard raises, that comes out to $195M, although @poetlburner aptly pointed out that the year-to-year salary could stay flat or decrease by up to 8% instead of increasing. I don’t think that’s a very likely outcome, but they could structure the deal with a fifth year and less than the $195M.

Otherwise, they can offer a regular veteran extension without the extra year or the higher starting salary (so 4/$151M max), now or even after December 21. That extension could be inked right up until just before 2021 free agency starts, but frankly there wouldn’t be much incentive for Gobert to sign at that point, especially since he could wait until free agency opens and be eligible once again for the same 5/$227M contract from Utah as a free agent.

A team with cap space could offer him 4/$144M in free agency, so the Jazz have to compete with that number, at least mentally. It’s not a sure thing that someone will have that offer waiting for him next summer, and some of will depend on whether star free agents like Leonard and Chris Paul stay put instead of soaking up finite amount of team’s cash under the cap. Antetokounmpo, Paul George and others already opted out of 2021 free agency, so Gobert could be a top-3 free agent in a year with probably six or more teams projecting to have cap space. That makes 4/$144M a pretty good reference point for what Gobert may regard as the bird in the bush as he weighs whatever Utah is currently offering.

From there, it’s just a question of what it takes. The full supermax ($39.2M) would push Utah to within $3M of next season’s tax threshold, and that’s with only eight players and Gobert accounted for. Even a modest deal for Mike Conley would take them over the apron, and they’d still have four more roster spots to fill. Even if they let Conley walk and filled the roster with minimum-salary players, they would be unable to use their non-taxpayer exceptions. It’s limiting, but the thing to remember here is that’s not really Gobert’s fault. He earned the right to negotiate all the way up to $39.2M by being an all-league star and a repeat DPOY winner.

On the other hand, the Jazz could try to secure his commitment closer to the 30% max level. With the extra year and the higher raises, that would still be at least $50 million more in guaranteed money than what the open market could give Gobert.

They could even make his exact starting point dependent on his 2020-21 impact, as Miami did with Bam Adebayo’s rookie extension. For example, if Gobert would agree to it, they could decide that he was guaranteed a starting salary at 30% of next year’s cap, but have it escalate to 32% if he makes the All-NBA third team, 33% if he makes second team, or 35% if he makes first team or reclaims DPOY. Something like that is allowed, but obviously subject to negotiation.

Frankly, there’s enough middle ground here that it’s hard to imagine them not getting a deal done this month. Of course, that’s moot if Gobert just wants to try a new basketball situation, but if he’s earnest about his desire to continue his title chase in Utah, the Jazz can easily offer enough money to help justify that choice and far exceed his other options. It will probably require Utah to stay in the supermax territory — somewhere between 30% and 35% — but it doesn’t feel like they’ll need to go all the way to $227M to keep their All-NBA center.

If a deal doesn’t get done by December 21, it doesn’t mean the relationship is inevitably ending. The Jazz can still extend him to a lower figure later or throw the same Brinks truck worth of max money at him next summer. But at that point they do have to start thinking about whether he is as committed to a joint future as he has publicly suggested. Trading a top-15 player would be a devastating blow for a team that is poised on the brink of true contention; Utah will probably only resort to that if they calculate that it’s very likely they’ll lose him next summer without getting a return package.

We love to decide what players’ “ceilings” are. Gobert is a perfect example of why that’s silly. He entered the NBA in 2013 as a raw, skinny late first-rounder who spent that first season shuttling back and forth between the Jazz and their (then) D-League affiliate, under a coach who hadn’t really caught the vision of what he could become. If we had collectively decided at that point what the arbitrary limit was on how good he could be, we certainly would have guessed very wrong.

More than once, I remember Gobert insisting through a wry smile that he could be better than anybody realized. He was right. He’s a superstar, full-stop.

And he’s about to get paid like one.

Note: A previous version of the story stated that Gobert could not receive less than $195M on a 5-year extension. That has been edited, since the salary technically could decrease after the first year of the contract, allowing the Jazz to pay him less than $195M on a five-year deal. The text that was changed is in red above.