Utah’s Updated Bench is a Playoff X Factor

Can better bench performances help the Jazz change the postseason script? (Mark J. Terrill via The Salt Lake Tribune)

Using Utah’s past playoff performance as a future predictor is tricky. The Jazz have failed to advance past the second round the last five seasons, but especially the losses involving this core group had some unique circumstances:

• In 2017, the Warriors swept the Jazz and eventually won the Championship. The Warriors were clearly on another tier, and the Jazz were still weeks away from drafting Donovan Mitchell.
• In 2018 and 2019 the Jazz were defeated by the James Harden-led Rockets. Utah didn’t have the firepower to overcome the Rockets’ length and switching defense. It led to drastic roster reshaping, including bringing in Mike Conley Jr. and Bojan Bogdanovic.
• In 2020, the Jazz were a rimmed-out shot away from advancing past the Nuggets. But this series had all sorts of asterisks. Conley missed time and Bogdanovic missed the whole series. Utah had to start Juwan Morgan, and were killed in the minutes involving deep reserves. The bubble environment contributed to eye-popping shooting numbers of Mitchell and Jamal Murray.
• The 2021 loss to the Clippers was also funky. No Kawhi Leonard, and only 26 minutes of Mike Conley. Mitchell was hobbled and couldn’t move well on defense or use his athleticism to attack. Los Angeles found heroic contributions from end-of-bench players like Terrance Mann and Reggie Jackson. In contrast, Utah’s bench wilted. Jordan Clarkson was the only bench player who could score, and his poor perimeter defense mirrored the team’s key weakness. In game seven, Derrick Favors and Georges Niang played less that six minutes each.

The 2020 and 2021 losses are most applicable here since they featured the same core group. And you could argue that their woes in those seasons came down to three primary factors:

1. Injuries to starters

2. Bench depth

3. Schematic issues

For the Jazz to contend, they have to have a healthy starting unit. That much is clear. The starting unit has the 6th best net rating among lineups that have played at least 300 minutes this season. They’ve played together the second most minutes in the league. The Jazz are undefeated in the four playoff games they’ve played together if you throw out Clippers game 7, where both guards were clearly not healthy.

Utah’s bench hurt them in the Nuggets series. Morgan had to play because Bogdanovic and Conley were out. Tony Bradley had to play because the Jazz didn’t find a more reliable backup center mid-season after signings like Ed Davis and Jeff Green didn’t mesh. Niang was ineffective. Clarkson was Clarkson. Utah literally lost this series by a shot. Swap their bench with Utah’s current bench and I think they win handily. Utah did not lose this game to schematic issues, though another perimeter defender would’ve really helped the Jazz, just as the late return of Gary Harris gave Denver one more meaningful perimeter defense option.

Utah lost the Clippers series due to a combination of bench depth and scheme, both exacerbated by injuries. Joe Ingles did not play well because of the increased load, both before and during the playoffs. Favors was signed, in part as a counter to previously jumbo Lakers team. His strengths didn’t match up well against the wing-heavy Clippers team. Niang really struggled on both ends of the court. Miye Oni and Trent Forrest would not have played if the rotation was healthy. Clarkson’s shot creation and scoring was important, but was no help as the Clippers repeatedly killed the Jazz with dribble penetration.

The biggest question is: who wins that series at full-strength? Clearly, the Clippers were unique in their ability to play 5-out so effectively. They were definitely a bad-matchup schematically. But hey, that Clippers team was considered by many a title-favorite if healthy. And Utah had the best record in the league. It would have been a fantastic series in an alternate universe.

The other question is: could Utah have won that series with the same injuries, but with this year’s bench? Hassan Whiteside could probably punish smaller matchups better than Favors, but perhaps the Jazz elect to play Rudy Gay or Eric Paschall at center in some cases. Either would hopefully fare better than Niang did in that series. Danuel House Jr. or this year’s version of Trent Forrest could’ve slowed Mann and Jackson on the perimeter, which would have allowed help defenders like Rudy Gobert to stay at home more often and not let Mann or Nic Batum get hot from outside. Even very-end-of-the-bench players like Juancho Hernangomez and Nickeil Alexander-Walker would’ve been intriguing to see in that Clippers matchup.

I think we can safely say this year’s bench is deeper than it’s been in Donovan Mitchell era. If the starters remain healthy, we’ll see which 4 or 5 bench players actually get minutes and how they compare to other contender bench units. This bench iteration has high upside, but notable question marks as well:

• Clarkson can win you a game when he’s hot, but how much will he be targeted on the perimeter?
• House could be Utah’s best perimeter defender, but was almost out of the league. Will he be healthy in time for the playoffs, and how will he fare in huge moments?
• Forrest is an excellent defender and orchestrator, but will his lack of shooting force him off the floor?
• Gay’s length, experience, and scoring ability is ideal for playoff basketball (which is why he was signed). But he’s looked a step slower — how spry will he look in the playoffs?
• Paschall’s hustle, inside scoring, and improved 3-point shooting could make him a playoff X-factor. But he’s out of the rotation when the Jazz are healthy. What kind of role does he get?
• Whiteside has provided immense value for his minimum contract. You can chalk up his rough patch to COVID-19 recovery if you want. But his reputation is still that of a mercurial player. What version of Hassan will we see?

The biggest determining factors remains health: with the starters at full strength, the Jazz should be in better shape to compete. But with or without a healthy starting five, the Jazz getting more from their bench could really help tip the scales. Could a bench group of Clarkson-House-Gay-Whiteside-Forrest provide more playoff-specific production than Clarkson-Ingles-Niang-Favors-Oni? Or will deep bench options like Paschall, Alexander-Walker, Hernangomez and Jared Butler inspire more faith than last year’s Forrest, Morgan, Jarrell Brantley, Matt Thomas and Ersan Ilyasova? 

The Clippers persevered in large part because unheralded bench players stepped up. This year’s bench has the depth and variability to replicate something similar. Based on past experience, the bar is low, so don’t be surprised if we see a little heroic action from Jazz reserves.

We all want more moments like this:

45. pic.twitter.com/ZX126RCXoD

— Gabby Stockard (@GabbyStockard) March 13, 2022