How much did the West’s best teams — like Donovan Mitchell’s Jazz and Devin Booker’s Suns — improve during the offseason? (Barry Gossage via suns.com)
There are a few different ways to go about guessing who got better or worse ahead of the impending start to the NBA season. One way is by simply treating it as a question of arithmetic: a team that was X good last year lost Y players and added Z players. As a starting point, that’s fine, but it’s a bit reductive as it fails to account for factors like health, chemistry, and the way new acquisitions might unlock something unique that goes beyond sum-of-its-parts type thinking.
Here, we’ll try to account for that as we look up and down the Jazz’s conference foes. Let’s evaluate every Western Conference team’s baseline coming out of last season, followed by some context around last year’s performance, analysis around what they did with their summer, and an initial verdict on whether they’re better, worse, or about the same.
(Note: We’re using EPM estimated wins from dunksandthrees.com for a sense of the arithmetic around wins added and lost. In those calculations, we don’t account for incoming/outgoing 2-way players or for players signed to non-guaranteed training camp contracts.)
Offseason in a sentence: Locking up Mike Conley Jr. was the main priority as they kept their main seven guys intact, and then they tinkered with the back of their rotation, particularly across the frontline.
In theory, the Gay/Whiteside/Paschall trio gives Utah some choices as to how to organize their frontcourt rotation, but as the EPM math here suggests, that won’t really be what drives Utah’s success. The biggest upside factor if Utah is going to improve on its league-best 59-win pace from last season is the fact that Conley missed 21 games and Donovan Mitchell missed 19. If those two are healthier and the new acquisitions work out, the Jazz could theoretically flirt with 60-win territory, but when your baseline is a .700-and-up season, even just maintaining that is a pretty notable success.
Verdict: About the same.
Offseason in a sentence: Their top eight regular season minute-getters will all reprise their roles — headlined by a returning superstar — but they’ll try some different depth pieces.
As with the Jazz, improving on a .700-plus season is pretty tough, especially when the driving force — second-team All-NBA guard Chris Paul — is 36. On the flip side, Devin Booker is nearing his 25th birthday and has generally become a more complete and efficient player as his career has progressed, so he could potentially offset any theoretical CP3 slippage. Their core rotation is the same; they’ll replace the contributions they got from Carter, Craig and Galloway with three players who EPM likes but who posted VORP/WAR stats at or below replacement level. Honestly, though, looking that far down their depth chart is kind of nitpicky. Overall, their ability to keep the core intact should mean they’ll be roughly as good, unless their good injury luck expires and/or Father Time starts to get more aggressive with Paul.
Verdict: About the same.
Offseason in a sentence: The Nuggets retained Will Barton, JaMychal Green and Austin Rivers and then signed Jeff Green as a more versatile (if also smaller) Millsap replacement.
All 2020-21 Nuggets lineups with Jamal Murray in them performed 8.4 points better than their opponents per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. All lineups without Murray were +2.5, the differential of a 47 or 48 win team. In other words, how good they can be is likely a function of when the young guard can return, and how close he is to his full self. In the meantime, they still have the reigning MVP and an interesting wing corps, but they’ll miss Murray, who is likely to miss a good chunk of the regular season.
Verdict: A bit worse.
Offseason in a sentence: Getting a long-term commitment from Kawhi Leonard — even if he’ll miss most or all of next season — was huge; otherwise, the Bledsoe trade is the most interesting acquisition.
Kawhi is notoriously mum on his injury process, but the reality is that a surgery for a partial tear usually carries about the same rehab process/timeline as a full reconstruction. That means the Clips will have to play most or all of the season without the two-time Finals MVP, and as good as Paul George is, this just doesn’t feel like a 54-win roster without Kawhi. Bledsoe was a negative-VORP player last season, but even if he gets back to being solidly starter quality as he was in Phoenix and Milwaukee, this team just won’t have the firepower at the top that other Western teams have. That said, if they can hang onto a top-8 seed and then get Leonard back, you also can’t rule them out as a postseason threat.
Verdict: Worse.
Offseason in a sentence: They’re hoping Bullock will replace some of Richardson’s 3-and-D grit on a cheaper deal, and they locked up Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Dallas is largely choosing to run it back, and their additions around the margins are actually pretty shrewd ones if you believe the various wins-added stats. But the reality is that their trajectory as a team is tied to Doncic’s. They should get better as their superstar (already a top 10-ish player at age 22) gets more comfortable picking apart defenses. They also feel like a team that could still have another trade or two to make. On the other hand, a new coach (Jason Kidd) means that a lot of the mental architecture supporting their top-8 offense might change, and general bullishness level around this Mavs team seems to be a function of how much a particular analyst believes (or doesn’t) in Kidd. Still, it’s probably safe to trust Cool Hand Luka’s progress in year four and expect at least some modest improvement.
Verdict: A bit better.
Offseason in a sentence: Crisis averted, for now: Damian Lillard remains in Oregon for now, Norm Powell re-signed, and Nance is a nice pickup that gives them some versatility.
After the 2019-20 season, I argued non-stop that the Jazz’s win percentage wasn’t an accurate baseline for understanding who they were, because their core pieces had barely been on the court together. The same caveats definitely apply for Portland, who didn’t get Norm Powell until midseason, and still had to nurse CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic back from injuries. Their preferred lineup — those three plus Lillard and Robert Covington — played just 21 games together but posted a ridiculous +14.4 differential. In other words, I’m not sure it’s accurate to view them as a 48-win team before their offseason moves. They also did well there; Nance in particular is a great fit who should improve their defense and give them some lineup versatility.
Verdict: Better.
Offseason in a sentence: No contender reworked its roster to the degree the Lakers did: they traded for Russ, secured Talen Horton-Tucker’s commitment, and then added nine (!!) veteran free agents with exception money or minimum deals.
The Lakers’ trendline depends largely on superstar health. They played like a 60-plus win team (+9.9 efficiency differential) when LeBron played, but he’s 37 and missed more than a third of last season. Their second best player, Anthony Davis, hurt his Achilles and shot 42-21-77 after returning, then 40-18-83 in the playoffs. That’s why the range of outcomes for the purple and gold is pretty wide. Westbrook adds some dynamism and vitality that may help them bridge gaps if LeBron/AD need nights off, but his particular brand of electricity hasn’t always correlated directly to wins. Some of the nine vets they added with exception signings will help here and there, but none of them will move the needle in a major way on his own. Simply put, this team could absolutely return to contender status if the superstars stay healthy, Russ clicks completely, and the veterans find new life playing off of that trio. But that’s the ceiling. If LBJ/AD miss some time or if the Russ fit isn’t totally snug, the floor here might be lower than most people realize.
Verdict: High ceiling, but small margin for error.
Offseason in a sentence: On paper, they might have taken a step backwards by parting with Valanciunas, but they still have some upside with Jaren Jackson Jr. returning to full health.
Memphis appears to be consciously shifting to a more Ja-centric identity, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Occasionally a young team doubles down on a budding superstar and gets rewarded with a meaningful leap. That’s the Grizzlies’ best hope of repeating as a playoff team, because the supporting cast around Morant did get somewhat worse. Jackson’s return — he played just 11 games last season — can offset some of that. While the win math says he hasn’t really had a major impact on winning so far in his career, he does unlock some things for the team overall because he’s a big, athletic body who can space the floor. One or both of those young studs will probably have to have a big year for Memphis to be really relevant in the West.
Verdict: Slightly worse.
Offseason in a sentence: They got solid bench vet upgrades to fill out the rotation, but the key here is just how healthy Klay Thompson looks after another lost year.
Even without Thompson, the Warriors found a way to be competitive late last season. After injuries forced them to remove some net-negative influences from the rotation, they posted the third best efficiency differential over the final month of 2020-21. They didn’t lose anybody who is vital to replicating that nice close, and in fact they signed some useful veterans. (Iggy, Otto and Bjelly are all better than their 2020-21 EPM estimated wins would suggest.) They also added a pair of lottery rookies, and James Wiseman should see some second-year improvement. So even if it’s a while before we see Klay back on the court — maybe in January, as GM Bob Myers speculated — they can probably build on the success they tapped into late in the year. Then, if Thompson does wind up looking like his former self at some point this season, the ceiling just goes up from there.
Verdict: Slightly better initially, maybe more so when Klay settles in.
Offseason in a sentence: The Spurs used S&T to get a return for DeRozan — including Young, an advanced stats darling — and also signed McDermott and brought back Forbes in moves that could help raise their league-worst 3-point ratio.
They lost first-tier starpower with DeRozan and even savvy possession eaters like Gay and Mills. The result is that they’re going to be asking a lot from guys like Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, the only remaining Spurs with usage rates above 20%. (OK, reserve Lonnie Walker IV was technically at 20.1%, too.) Those two have historically produced average to below-average efficiency, but the interesting thought experiment here is whether a more open floor can help those guys thrive more. San Antonio was dead last in threes taken and made last year, what with an offense built around midrange experts like DeRozan and (for part of the season) LaMarcus Aldridge. Those guys are gone, and the Spurs have filled a lot of their auxiliary roles with capable shooters. Still, I’m going to want to see more evidence that Murray can flourish in a starring role — he’s never averaged more than 15.7 points — before I forecast a big improvement.
Verdict: Same to slightly worse.
Offseason in a sentence: The Pelicans recouped some value for Ball by leveraging his rights in a S&T, and then did quite well in their other big trade, turning Bledsoe, Adams and assets into two bona fide scorers into Valanciunas and Graham. (They also kept Josh Hart.)
The Pelicans’ trajectory is tied to Zion Williamson’s growth, but looking at the sheer win math here, it’s hard not to feel like the Pels made some sneaky potent upgrades. JV and Zion both like to operate below the free throw line, so it could get crowded at times, but the former still commands enough attention that we might see a freer Zion at times. Graham/Satoransky is a very different guardline than Lonzo/Bledsoe, so there will be some necessary adjustment here as everybody learns to play together. The Pels also have a first-year head coach (Willie Green) trying to pull it all together, so that dynamic is something to watch. But as with Dallas/Luka, I’m choosing to trust in a team whose trendline will be tied to a young superstar in the making. Zion averaged 27-7-4 as a 20-year-old, even with obvious areas for improvement. He should be even better in year three, unless the offseason foot injury we just learned about proves to be a bigger deal.
Verdict: Better.
Offseason in a sentence: Mitchell’s promise greased the wheels for a Wright-for-Thompson swap, and Richaun Holmes, Maurice Harkless and Terence Davis all stayed put.
The Kings didn’t add anybody that makes me rethink their place in the basketball universe, but Mitchell should be fun. It’s also not insignificant that Holmes and Harkless, who both probably had other options, chose to stay. De’Aaron Fox — 25.2 ppg, 7.2 apg last season — will have the biggest say in how much improvement they can make in the guard’s fifth season. This is also a team to keep an eye on when trade season heats up, because they have some big salaries tied to non-core pieces. But barring anything dramatic on the trade front or a remarkable leap from Fox, they’re probably still in roughly the same range from the macro level.
Verdict: About the same.
Offseason in a sentence: It was a relatively quiet offseason, which may have to do with why GM Gersson Rosas was shown the door right before training camp; they didn’t even get around to re-signing RFAs Jarred Vanderbilt and Jordan McLaughlin until early September, although they did swing trades to upgrade their bench with Beverley and Prince.
Here’s something: the Wolves’ top four 2020-21 scorers appeared together in exactly ZERO games. They played literally the entire season down at least one key contributor, but when their three core players — Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards — played together they were surprisingly competent at 13-11. Can improved health and a couple of key bench additions help them climb out of the lottery? That’s a tall ask coming off a 26-win baseline, but they should be better.
Verdict: A bit better.
Offseason in a sentence: The rebuilding Thunder are still mostly focused on generating assets (like they did by absorbing Favors) and then moving to secure their pieces when one of those picks hits (like they did with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s max extension).
It’s a good thing they got SGA’s long-term commitment, because they probably just made life harder on the fifth-year guard. OKC put even more youth around the 23.7-ppg scorer in their quest for a next-gen Thunder core. Giddey and Mann should see the ball a lot right away, but Gilgeous-Alexander only has two teammates who posted a WAR above 1.0 last year, and they’re both utility reserves: Favors and Kenrich Williams. Just as the Jazz and Suns don’t have a ton of room to get better, it seems wild to forecast a 25-win team actually losing ground. There’s just not a lot on this roster, until some of the young fellas prove otherwise.
Verdict: Somewhat worse?
Offseason in a sentence: Another team focused on the future, Houston let veterans walk and lined up several draft swings, then used its mid-level exception on Theis.
Theis is a curious investment for a team that otherwise showed categorical disinterest in veteran help. John Wall, Eric Gordon and Christian Wood missed a combined 108 player-games last season, and Wall has already been ruled out as a 2021-22 Rocket. So it seems as though we’ll see the Rockets emphasize the growth of Kevin Porter Jr. and the four incoming rookies. There’s not a lot of room to regress from a win-total standpoint, but this will be another year that requires patience from the fans as the Rox continue their post-James Harden rebuild.
Verdict: About the same.
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