What Utah’s Offense Needs Even More Than Shooting

It takes two efficient attackers to win, Clint finds. (The Sporting News)

When a team respected as an ascending contender sits at 11-13 with nearly a third of the regular season done, as the Utah Jazz do now, something has gone really wrong. Likely more than one something.

There is no arguing the the Jazz offense has been a major disappointment. Opinions on how worrisome this should be run the gamut from nothing to hyperventilate about (ESPN’s Zach Lowe) to this better improve quickly (Sports Illustrated’s Kaelen Jones) to this is consequence of a fundamental identity crisis (The Ringer’s Paolo Uggetti).

Much of the explanation for the struggles has gone to Utah’s sporadic shooting from long range. With good reason. Only 10 NBA squads take threes with greater frequency than the Jazz, yet only three teams in the league — the Thunder, Hawks, and Wizards — make a lower percentage than Utah’s 32.6 percent. 

It’s a bad combination, particularly in an era that prioritizes and, through the rules, privileges spacing. 

Yet shooting isn’t the Jazz’s biggest offensive problem, and wasn’t even prior to the unexpected trade for Kyle Korver.

I’ve been writing for several weeks now that, realistically, the Jazz need two ball handlers to score efficiently as well as two shooters to hit threes at a good volume and clip for the offense to work.

It’s becoming clearer and clearer that the first component is the most lacking.

Utah certainly gets better shooting in the games they win. In victories, Utah’s top two shooters in any particular game¹ have thus far cashed in nearly one additional triple despite taking one fewer attempt from three than in losses. Those three additional points and an extra possession would have been enough for victory in Miami.

But scoring, or the lack of it, by Utah’s ball handlers has been far more decisive than three-point shooting in determining the outcome of games this year.

Consider that in losses, whichever of Mitchell, Rubio and Ingles² is Utah’s most efficient scorer with the ball in his hands has produced 21.6 points on 17 shots. In wins, the points produced by whoever is the best of those three jumps to 26.5 points on 18.6 shots. 

That five-point difference is huge — but perhaps not as huge as the difference in performances by the team’s secondary shot creator.

In victories this season, the Jazz have gotten highly efficient scoring from a ball handler who is not their primary shot creator: 16.6 points on 10.8 field goal attempts. This has typically been Ingles or Burks backing up Mitchell, or on several occasions Mitchell bolstering a Rubio explosion.  When the team has two players who can take the ball in hand and score efficiently, the offense hums.

What is the secondary ball handler averaging in losses? 12.2 points on 12.2 shots. That’s a drop from 1.54 points per shot to a single point per shot. 

Put together, the picture becomes glaringly obvious. 

In victories, a ball-handling duo has carved up Jazz opponents to the tune of 43.1 points on 29.4 shots (1.47 points per shot). In losses, that plummets to 33.8 points on 29.2 shots (1.16). That’s a ginormous difference of more than nine points on practically identical shots. 

Scoring from a second ball handler is the key to the offense, and maybe the Jazz’s season. The team has already lost three contests where one guy showed up large but a secondary compatriot didn’t³.

Mitchell simply needs more help more consistently in his ball-dominant role.  

Ironically, trading Burks for Korver may actually exacerbate this fundamental problem with Utah’s offense. Burks was the only Jazz player beside Mitchell who could routinely get to the rim and finish there, which is absolutely essential for Utah’s pick-and-roll predicated offense.

The team knows what it’s going to get from Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors: super-efficient shooting on limited possessions. Even in losses those two are shooting 64 and 54-percent from the field, respectively. The problem is they only combine for 15 to 16 attempts from the field most games.

That leaves nearly 70 shots the rest of the team has to take.

When Jazz ball handlers are punishing defenses with their scoring, that inhibits defenses from dropping defenders as readily into the path of bigs rolling to the hoop. That means more attempts at the rim for bigs, and more quality shots for Jazz bigs is always good for this offense. Moreover, when the men with the ball are putting up points, it takes a huge burden of Utah’s spot-up shooters.

Remember, Utah’s two highest scoring games this season (133 and 132, both victories) were on nights when then team shot 33 and 31-percent from long range respectively. This offense doesn’t require a barrage of threes to work well. It does require players producing points when they initiate the pick and roll.

Three-point shooting is vital in today’s NBA, but the Jazz offense doesn’t catalyze off shooting like Portland or Golden State. Everything in Utah’s offense starts when a player comes off a pick and a big rolls to the hoop. With Ingles and Korver on the roster, the Jazz realistically can rely on two of the very best shooters in the entire world — yet neither have the revolutionary off-the-dribble three of Stephen Curry or Damian Lillard. They need other players to earn enough defensive attention to get them good looks.

The Jazz won’t often win without being able to repeatedly put the ball into a few players’ hands who they can trust to score efficiently. Not create shots for others, as Jazz ball-dominant duos dish only one more assist in wins than losses this year. This team needs points from the point of attack.

For defenses, the answer has become fairly simple: make Mitchell score on jumpers off the dribble, make Rubio score in volume from anywhere on the court, and make Ingles score off the dribble. Chances are pretty good that two out of the three won’t happen the same night, at least not at a high enough volume, in which case the Jazz probably lose.

Can Mitchell do his work largely off of jumpers? If he’s shooting off the catch, absolutely. He’s a good catch-and-shoot shooter who hasn’t had much opportunity to prove it given the on-ball burden he’s carried. Moreover, he’s a blur to the rim off cuts and hard close outs. But again, these opportunities require someone else handling the ball well enough, and menacingly enough in a defense’s eyes, to draw attention away from Utah’s clear top option.

The situation is clear. If Donovan Mitchell is the only Jazz player who concerns defenses with the ball in his hands, this offense will struggle.

Rubio fueled the Jazz’s stunning run up the standings late last season with an uncharacteristic months-long burst of offensive competency. This year he’s been mercurial, never good enough for long enough stretches to really make defenses worry.

Ingles has already matched his career high in scoring twice this year, but he’s still only averaging 12.5 points and just over 10 field goal attempts per game. 

If one of those two doesn’t emerge as second high-ish usage scorer for the Jazz, it’s hard to see where needed help may come from. Dante Exum can get to the rim when he wants against just about anyone, but he isn’t finishing those shots frequently enough. It would require a major leap in both productivity and consistency for him to even garner mention as an option to fill this need.

Nope, it will be Ricky or Joe or no one.

Hopefully, Korver’s presence will inject some vigor in Jazz shooters, giving everyone a bit more space to work. 

Hopefully, Mitchell will stay healthy and gain comfort as Utah’s offensive alpha and omega, lessening pressure on everyone else.

Hopefully, when the schedule eventually turns away from what has been a months-long road trip, Utah will feast on easier competition.

But the single biggest question for the rest of the season is whether Quin Snyder will be able to look to either of his starting smalls not named Mitchell and say, “You’ve gotta get us some baskets.”