What’s Next for the Jazz? Fundamental Issues, Trade Ideas, and Reasons for Hope

Zarin Ficklin looks at the Jazz’s options moving forward with, among others, 3-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. (Melissa Majchrzak via espn.com)

Well then.

The Dallas series happened. Coach Quin Snyder is moving on. Fans of the Jazz are wading through the seven stages of grief, but hey, it’s familiar territory. Some are still in the denial stage, some in the depression stage. Others have one foot in the pain and the other in the anger. Let’s gloss over the woes, the issues, the bad feelings. Because some sort of Jazz team will suit up next season, and the mystery of what that team will look like is more interesting than dissecting what went wrong — at least for now, while the wound is fresh. The final stages of grief include the upward turn, reconstruction, and hope. Are we ready for that?

Let’s start with a few baselines we’ve been hearing:

1. The Jazz want to compete for a championship — that means no blow-it-up scenarios.

2. The Jazz are keeping Donovan Mitchell.

3. The Jazz would like to keep Rudy, but are entertaining trades. At the time of this writing, it feels like a coin flip.

That’s the message so far, at least. We’ve seen how quickly a situation can devolve. I remember sitting at the Chicago game where Jerry Sloan stormed off, and Deron Williams was gone shortly after. One Jazz era morphed into another in a mid-season flash. But we’ll table the catastrophic scenario.

In six straight playoff appearances (which is an impressive feat, by the way), the Jazz have failed to push past the second round. The team as we know it has fundamental cracks in the armor. I promised we wouldn’t dwell on the negative here, so suffice it to say that this team simply can’t run it back. If Don and Rudy return, that means a big shakeup with the remaining starters, and probably the bench, too.

Maybe a huge turnover alleviates the chemistry issues. As casual observers, it’s impossible to diagnose what those chemistry issues were, and who dislikes whom. But fresh faces are needed. The starting lineup is going to look very different, and each of last year’s starters serve as a hinge point for what happens next.

Donovan Mitchell

It’s clear the Jazz are operating with Mitchell at its core, in more ways than one. Nearly every big decision the organization faces ties to Mitchell. For example:

• Finding a new coach. The Jazz have amassed an impressive pool of candidates, and Johnnie Bryant appears to be a front-runner. You can point to his relationship with Donovan, the CAA ties, and the benefits of choosing a coach your star player wants to play for. Bryant may be a great choice for numerous reasons beyond that, but Mitchell’s influence on the decision is hard to ignore.
• The point guard position. Reports say that Donovan will be the starting point guard next season. This has long been the end-game for Mitchell, but its obvious ramification is that Mike Conley will move to the bench or be traded.
• Mitchell is only 25 years old, and yet has already been to the playoffs five times. He is surrounded by veteran players. Philosophically, the Jazz have to decide to either get younger (and likely worse in the short term), or reshuffle their older players to maximize their current window.

Before we move on, let’s address a few elephants stomping around the room. One: there are pros and cons to giving a young player like Donovan keys to kingdom, and Dan Clayton covered a complicated situation with great nuance here. Two: last season there was a clear lack of chemistry, and Donovan had some part to play in that. Three: there is the looming threat of Donovan demanding a trade at some point. As fans that have experienced the Gordon Hayward 4th of July, it’s easy to grab our pitchforks. Yes, last season was bad in many ways, and there’s potential for a lot more turmoil. But things can also turn the other direction fast. Look at this season’s Celtics. It was not long ago that Donovan was thought of most for his off-the-court good will, insane playoff performances, and superstar potential. It makes a lot of sense for the Jazz to build around him.

Mike Conley

Mike Conley had a great year, and a bad series. He remains a top-50 player who makes good things happen when he’s on the court. Here’s the key point: the Jazz lack length and perimeter defense. And this isn’t Mike’s fault — he’s a better defender than Donovan. But if Donovan is staying, it just makes sense to move him to point guard, and replace Mike with a longer defender. Conley could move to the bench, but it feels like a suboptimal use of resources given his salary and trade value. At this point it just seems very likely he’s traded.

The irony is that not long ago we were discussing how much the Jazz needed a secondary ball handler, and how re-signing Conley was critical for the Jazz. The Jazz will miss Conley, but circumstances have changed.

Several teams are in need of a veteran point guard:

• The Knicks could package Julius Randle or Evan Fournier with assets. Randle doesn’t seem ideal, despite being one season removed from 2nd team All-NBA. The Jazz could try to recoup his value for a later trade, or try a 3-team deal. Fournier has length and is a career 38% 3-point shooter at volume. He’s not without flaws, but is the type of player the Jazz could target. The Knicks can also offer a flyer on little-used athlete, Cam Reddish. Or they can attach assets the Jazz can use on another deal.
• The Clippers are reportedly shopping Marcus Morris, who is another wing that can shoot. It would certainly hurt to help a rival, but what if the Jazz can get Morris and one other wing from LA’s endless supply? Seriously, you could throw a dart blindfolded at their roster and find a useful wing.
• The Wizards could use some veteran talent to pair with Bradley Beal, especially after trading Spencer Dinwiddie. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma are both intriguing fits.
• The Pacers already have a handful of talented guards. But the fit with Malcolm Brogdon and Tyrese Haliburton hasn’t been great. Perhaps a 3-way trade bringing Brogdon to Utah could be worked out.
• The Lakers have few trade assets, but would love a player like Conley if Westbrook is moved. A multi-team deal isn’t out of the question.
• If the Celtics win the Championship, they may have little reason to seek a big roster change. But they have a surplus of perimeter defense and could use a little more ball handling. Could a deal be built around Conley for Derrick White, with some salary and draft compensation added to the balance?

Royce O’Neale

Royce is a polarizing player. He had an up-and-down year and an ineffective series. You can point to his deficiencies, but the truth is that the Jazz want more Royce O’Neales, not fewer. Unless another team really covets him, the Jazz have a better chance of success by using O’Neale differently than by trading him for a similar player.

If the Jazz can convert Conley and another starter for quality wings, there’s a good chance Royce simply moves to the bench. Even if he remains a starter, ideally he’s paired against the types of players he defends best instead of always getting the toughest assignment. In either scenario, he should be left with more gas in the tank on the offensive end, where he can excel as a low-usage, knockdown 3-point shooter. His driving game has shown development, and I’m interested to see what that could look like if his defensive load is lightened.

Count me in on team Royce. Oh, he’s also best friends with Donovan, which probably means he’s not going anywhere.

Bojan Bogdanovic

Bojan is a tricky case. You can pencil him in for for a reliably efficient 18 points a game. If Mike Conley leaves, his secondary offensive becomes even more important. And while he’s not an athletic defender, he has size. He brought admirable defensive effort in the last two postseasons against both Luka and Kawhi. He’s also 33 and has positive trade value. Bojan’s fate could depend on what other moves are made first and what offers other teams make for him. Here are a few scenarios to consider:

• The Jazz move Don to point guard and keep Rudy, they could look to add two other big wings to the starting lineup. Hypothetically: a 6’6” Josh Richardson to defend guards and a 6’8” Harrison Barnes to defend bigger wings would be great bookends to a wing lineup with Bojan. Easier said than done, given Bojan is one of Utah’s bigger trade chips.
• Bojan could be moved in a more lateral move that bring back a similar player. Picks and another team could be included in a trade that brings back Barnes or Jerami Grant.
• If the Jazz are inclined to get younger, Bojan could be traded for an athletic player like De’Andre Hunter. Such deals are trickier because of salary differences. But plenty of teams could use a proven shooter like Bojan, so finding a deal wouldn’t be too difficult.

Rudy Gobert

Okay, here’s the big one. If the Jazz want to persuade Donovan to stay in Utah by competing for titles, keeping Rudy makes the most sense. Trading Rudy with the hope of still contending short-term requires a lot of luck. Trading Rudy will not bring back another top-25 player. And trading Rudy is going to have major ramifications on defense. Maybe Don or Danny Ainge, or other powers-that-be are weighing other factors with winning — they could aim to be competitive enough for the next few years while reshaping the team’s DNA. But that’s a fine line to walk if Donovan is zeroed in on Titles, whether in Utah or elsewhere.

The hope is this: the Jazz give the Rudy and Donovan core one more shot. They nail their trades and signings this season. They get more athletic and bolster their perimeter defense. They may have to mortgage their future a bit — most contenders do. But I still believe a Rudy and Don team with better perimeter defense can contend for a Title. The other part of this hopeful scenario is that a new coach, some fresh faces, and increased winning smoothes over chemistry issues.

But if reputable reporters place Rudy’s chances of remaining on the team at 50–50, it’s worth exploring likely trades. Three teams have reported interest in Gobert and have interesting trade pieces:

1. The Toronto Raptors. While Pascal Siakam might represent the high-end of what Utah could hope for a player-for-player swap, a Toronto deal is much more likely to revolve around OG Anunoby. While OG is a player-prototype the Jazz have coveted, at this point he’s more of a third of fourth piece of a championship lineup. But he’s young and full of potential.

In such a trade, the Jazz would have to add numerous other wing defenders and a new starting center to have any hope of a respectable defense. The Raptors could help there. OG would have to be packaged with other salary and assets. Gary Trent Jr. is a logical choice and would be a defensive upgrade for the Jazz, even if he’s not a lockdown defender. Toronto would likely also send out draft compensation, which Utah could use as ammo in another deal. Other iterations of this deal could involve Khem Birch, Chris Boucher, and or a sign-and-trade deal with Thaddeus Young — all potentially useful bench players.

If the Jazz can trade Conley, one of Bojan or Clarkson, and the picks from Toronto to get, say Harrison Barnes, and a serviceable starting center… a lineup of Mitchell, Trent Jr., Anunoby, Barnes, and X is intriguing, at the least.

2. The Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are much more motivated to make big changes than any other suitor. That, combined with their putrid defense makes them a sensible partner. The Jazz would look to get De’Andre Hunter and John Collins. Atlanta may so no to both and try to feature Clint Capella, Danilo Gallinari, or draft picks instead.

The idea of Hunter and Collins is appealing — both are young, athletic, and lengthy wings. Hunter has the potential as lockdown defender, and Collins can score the ball. Both have struggled to stay healthy and Hunter in particular has been up-and-down. Maybe such a move is smart in the long-run, but adds a lot of risk to winning now. The Hawks have reported interest in Bojan as well, so potentially a mega-deal could be made that brings back Capella or a 1st round pick as well.

Again, let’s say the Jazz are able to convert the additional assets along with Conley for a player like Harrison Barnes and a center. Does a core of Mitchell, Hunter, Barnes, and Collins appeal more than the Toronto variation?

3. The Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are also incentivized to make a big trade after a disappointing season. Trade ideas center around Nikola Vucevic and Patrick Williams. The problem is that Vucevic does not help the Jazz. He’d have to be rerouted for the Jazz to still compete. Williams is comparable to Hunter in terms of raw potential, which is less likely to convert into immediate winning. The Bulls do have other players that could help the Jazz win right now. Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso are solid two-way guards that could slot next to Donovan. There might be something there. But it requires another team to take Vuvevic, and I’d probably rather have Anunoby and Trent Jr. than two of Chicago’s wings.

Beyond these front-runners, other teams could emerge as suitors (note I’m not the originator of many of these trade frameworks):

• The Hornets desperately need a player like Gobert, but the Jazz aren’t bringing back Hayward, and Miles Bridges and Terry Rozier aren’t the type of player Utah needs. PJ Washington and draft picks would be useful to the Jazz, but a deal with Charlotte probably needs a third team.
• The Warriors could offer Andrew Wiggins and some combination of their young players. But it doesn’t move the needle as much as other trade partners and it helps a rival team.
• The Grizzlies could offer Stephen Adams, De’Anthony Melton, and a trove of picks or prospects … which is just, fine? There are likely better offers out there.
• The Wizards could also make a similarly “meh” offer around Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, and assets — all nice pieces, but a huge talent downgrade.
• The Knicks could offer Evan Fournier, Cam Reddish, and picks. But why not try a similar trade with Mike Conley instead?
• The Nets would eagerly swap Ben Simmons for Gobert, but this would be a truly desperate move. Maybe a 3-way deal that sends Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner to Utah instead?
• The Celtics could trade Robert Williams, Derrick White, and assets. Williams is a solid approximation of Gobert’s skillset, and White would help on the perimeter. Flipping Conley for another wing makes for a neat reshuffle.
• The Lakers trading Anthony Davis for Gobert is good as a thought exercise if anything.

What will actually happen?

It’s hard to predict, especially given the coach change, a turbulent last season, and Danny Ainge at the helm. Few things would surprise me a this point. But since making predictions is fun, here are mine:

1. The Jazz hire Johnnie Bryant. It just makes a lot sense. The organization likes him. His camaraderie with players is what this locker room needs. And his ability to tell Donovan no, while retaining his respect is huge. While Bryant may lack experience, adding a former head coach to his staff could alleviate that.

2. The Jazz entertain Rudy Gobert offers, but don’t make a trade. Rudy is too good to trade if they don’t have to. They have the time to find out what Rudy’s value is, while giving this core one more year. They can trade him a year from now, or even at the deadline and hopefully get comparable value.

3. The Jazz trade Mike Conley, Rudy Gay, and one of Bojan Bogdanovic or Jordan Clarkson. We’ve talked about Conley’s likely departure. Gay also seems likely to move given how last year went — unless no other teams want him either. Bogey and Clarkson showed up for the Jazz against Dallas, but they both have trade value, and the team simply needs to trade some offense for defense. It may come down to who has a better market.

4. The Jazz make a strong push for either Harrison Barnes or Jerami Grant. Reports are that they tried hard last offseason. If the Jazz trade Conley and keep Gobert, they really need to add another difference maker to convince Donovan that the team is still contending. If the Jazz can leverage their limited assets, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them let go of future picks or younger players.

5. Next season is better than the last. Look, there are a lot of ways this coming season could go wrong. Losing Quin is going to hurt. Losing Rudy, Mike, Bojan, or Clarkson will hurt. Donovan could demand a trade. I don’t need to list all the reasons. But I’m an optimist, and following a sports team is more enjoyable with some hope. This team has reasons to hope. They have a lot of talent and are just one season removed from having the best record in the league. The team knows what its issues are, and it has tools to fix them. It could be a really fun season! It will be an interesting one at the least — and hey, we’re here to be entertained.