Where Do the 7-13 Jazz Go From Here?

The next couple of months could tell us a lot about how Ryan Smith and Danny Ainge see the future playing in Utah. (Francisco Kjolseth, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Optimism abounds for most fan bases heading into a new NBA season, and this year’s Utah Jazz were no different. After a surprising 2022-23 season where many expected the team to be in the running of the Wemby Marathon, the Jazz came out of the gates strong and were 10-3 at one point. They did trail off, but they stayed a near-.500 team until the spring (35-36 on March 20). Mid-season trades and subsequent guard injuries caused the Jazz’s hopes play-in tournament hope to ultimately fade. Nevertheless, last season’s success, the offseason addition of John Collins, and promising signs from rookies Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, and Brice Sensabaugh had many fans thinking they could improve on their 37 wins from last season.

A quarter of the way through the season, it’s looking more and more like that might not be in the cards. The Jazz currently sit at 7-13, with an offensive rating ranked 25th and a defensive rating ranked 23rd. Those struggles have come despite having the 21st ranked strength of schedule. They are currently still scheduled to play 28 games against the top 10 offenses in the league.

There are signs of life on the defensive end. Over the past week they went 2-2 and had an impressive 108.3 defensive rating, which was 5th best during that stretch. If you push that further to the past 10 games, their defense has had a 115.6 rating, which is 16th and right around league average. The problem is that despite the defensive improvements, the offensive has continued to look lifeless at times. During that same 10-day stretch they have an offensive rating of a 110.7.

All of this points to an interesting question about the Jazz’s direction from here. Their current win percentage of .350 would equate to a 28-win season, which would have resulted in the fifth best lottery odds last season. But they’re also still just 2.5 games out of a play-in spot. It feels like a crossroads moment for the Jazz, where staying the course is not all that likely. As the season moves along and the February 8 trade deadline approaches, it’s likely that team brass will want to determine which way this season is headed.

Option A: Push to make it into the Play-In Tournament. 

Option B: Lean into the skid and bottom out in hopes of securing a top-3 pick in next year’s NBA Draft. 

Let’s play a game of “Would you Rather”
Option A – The Jazz turn things around and make it into the Play-In Tournament (They’d lose their 2024 1st Round Pick).
Option B – They trade off a few pieces, bottom out, but end up with a 2024 Top 3 Draft pick.

— John Keeffer (@john_keeffer) December 1, 2023

Let’s look at each of these and determine what would need to happen to make it realistic, and then you can decide your preference.

Option A) Jazz make the Play-In

For the Jazz to make the Play-In Tournament a few key things would need to happen. First, they need a healthy Lauri Markannen playing at an All-Star/All-NBA level. So far when healthy, they have largely gotten that. He is averaging 23.7 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, while shooting a 38.3 percent from three-point range on high volume. Not only would the Jazz need that to continue to break into the top 10 in the conference, but Markkanen would probably need to be even a bit more aggressive in getting his own shots to see if he can up his scoring to over 25 points a game, which is where he was last season.

They’ll also need a few specific first- and second- years players to take a leap. Walker Kessler is now back and healthy and has looked fantastic over the past few games. His rocky start to the season makes a lot more sense once they announced his injury from the first game of the season. In his past five games he has averaged 11.2 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.4 blocks. If he can maintain being a consistent double-double threat while bolstering the already improving defense, it will lead to additional wins.

Ochai Agbaji is the other second year player who needs to bring more to the table. In roughly the same amount of minutes per game compared to his rookie season, his scoring has gone down from 7.9 to 5.7. The Jazz don’t need Ochai to be a high volume shooter and scorer, but they do need him to be more of a consistent threat. He has been fantastic on the defensive side of the ball and is doing a good job of taking on the challenge of defending the top offensive wings on the opposing team each night, but on 5.7 points and 4.8 shot attempts per game isn’t going to cut it.

The final player to step up would be Keyonte George. He is a rookie and we are all going to give him grace and time to grow, but if you want the Jazz to make the Play-In, they will likely need him to really start maturing into the player he can be. His passing and playmaking have already been a huge surprise and largely ahead of what you would expect from a rookie point guard. He is leading all rookies with 5.0 assists per game, one shy of 100 total for the season. The next closest rookie in total assists is Marcus Sasser at 57. In the 12 games as a starter, he has upped that assist per game rate to 6.1 per game, while also chipping in 12 points and 4 rebounds. 

Those are solid numbers, but the Jazz will need him to gain more confidence as a scorer as well. At times he has seemed hesistant to take too many shots, and struggles to find the balance between facilitator and scorer. He is shooting just 31 percent from three and 34.7 percent from the field overall. His aggression to score will not only boost his own numbers, but will open up opportunities for others on the floor.

Keyonte George with his most profound scoring game of the year so far.

Scored from 3, from the midrange, off the floater, and at the rim. Very well rounded attack from him pic.twitter.com/5nVy1klK69

— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) December 3, 2023

The final step for the Jazz to get more competitive would likely be at least one roster move to bolster their guardline. I am a Jordan Clarkson truther so I am not going to go there, but they could package either Talen Horton-Tucker or Collin Sexton, paired with one of their many future draft picks to see if they can bring in a more solid and consistent presence in the backcourt, ideally a shooter. THT may be the more appealing option to other teams due to his age and expiring contract.

If the Jazz choose to go this route they are opening up the option of a single big risk. They owe a first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but it is top-10 protected. If the Jazz choose to make a run at the play-in, they better get in, because falling just short of making the play-in while also failing to hold onto that draft pick would be an enormous loss.

Option B) Lean into the skid and bottom out

I am not generally a fan of “tanking,” but I do understand the need of a smaller market team to put themselves in a position for the best odds at landing top tier talent. Winning and playing hard is an important part of building a culture, but at the end of the day, you need stars to truly compete. Free agency has not shown to be that route for most of those teams in a small market, so sometimes the best option is to make moves to generate future assets at the expense of near-term competitiveness.

Most rebuilds are a 3-5 season process, and if bottoming out is going to happen eventually, delaying that process would be more frustrating to most Jazz fans. Especially if they try and fail to make the Play-In but win enough games that they head into next offseason with no first-round pick. Even if this draft class is supposedly weaker than others, losing an asset like that for nothing will only slow down that rebuild process. 

Doing this option is pretty easy. The Jazz are already loaded with some really intriguing young assets, and you could give them ample opportunity to prove what they have to offer to the franchise going forward. If the Jazz were to try and trade some of their veteran talent to contending teams, they could increase draft capital or bring in additional young talent. Kelly Olynyk, THT, Sexton, and as much as it pains me to say, Jordan Clarkson, are all players that would have value in the marketplace. It would definitely decrease their chance of winning, but that would free up playing time for George, Agbaji, Sensabaugh, Hendricks, and Kessler. 

The Jazz are currently tied for the Bulls with the seventh worse record in the NBA. This early in the season, it wouldn’t be hard to bottom out. With option B you end up with a potential top pick in this upcoming draft, but the Jazz still also have 14 first-round picks over the next six seasons, and they can use any numbers of those to try and pounce on the next distressed star to pair with Markkanen and their young core.

Twenty games into the year and with trade season just around the corner, we should have a very clear understanding of the direction the Jazz front-office wants to take this thing very soon. The one things that absolutely should not happen though is: nothing. If we have learned anything about Danny Ainge in his time as Utah’s CEO of Basketball Operations, is he is not one to just go with the flow. He and Justin Zanik have been aggressive in either gathering assets or using acquired assets to bring in high-end talent. The next two months should tell us a lot: buckle up!