Which X-factor Can Lead the Jazz to the Playoffs

Agbaji could give the Jazz an unexpected jolt towards playoff territory. (Francisco Kjolseth, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Despite a handful of predictions placing the Utah Jazz outside of playoff range for the 2023-24 season, many fans are still optimistic and believe Utah will be an above-.500 team with a real shot at a No. 6-8 seed in the playoffs.

Vegas oddsmakers have set Utah’s over/under for season wins at 35.5. Andy Bailey from Bleacher Reports (known Jazz fan), predicted the record for every team and had the Jazz finishing at 37-45. Even in my own schedule release column, I projected a 37-45 record for the Jazz, which would leave them out of the playoffs for a second straight year.

Last season, after the Jazz traded away Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley, the Jazz finished the season with a 10-17 record. Over a full season that would be about a 30-win pace. During the majority of that stretch though, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton also missed time. With those two guards healthy, coupled with the addition of John Collins and the three rookies, does that add 12-plus wins to last spring’s 30-win pace get the Jazz over .500 for the year?

In Bailey’s prediction article, he even mentioned a few key areas that could help the Jazz improve upon his prediction:

“The Utah Jazz were better than expected for most of 2022-23, but they won’t have the same element of surprise this season. That alone could make it tricky to improve on the 37 wins they just totaled, but there are plenty of factors going the other way.

Walker Kessler, who ranked in the 87thpercentile in defensive estimated plus-minus as a rookie, should be better. Lauri Markkanen now has a year of confidence as an All-Star and No. 1 option under his belt. And the addition of John Collins should be a nice boost for an offense that finished top 10 last season.

If even one of Utah’s young guards (a group that includes Collin Sexton, Talen Horton-Tucker and Keyonte George) exceeds expectations, this team has a shot to be above .500 and in the playoffs.”

His comments lead well into an interesting question for most every team. For this team to maximize it’s potential and be a potential playoff team, who is the X-factor that could be the driving force to an improved season? Let’s explore three potential players whose hypothetical leap in production could end up being the key to the Jazz making a run at the playoffs.

John Collins Bounce-back Season

Since Collins was traded to the Utah Jazz to kick-off free agency, you may have heard that he averaged 19.5 points in his second year in the league, and then posted 21.6 points and 10.1 rebounds during the 2019-20 season. Since that strong start to his career, his production started to slowly dip, going to 17.6 points, to 16.2, and all the way down to 13.1 points last season. You can point to multiple factors that likely played a large role in his dip in production, but the two primary were Collins constantly being rumored to be on the trading block, and then a recovering broken finger last season that dropped a career 37.6 percent three-point shooter down to 29.2 percent.

The reason it is easy to envision Collins being the biggest x-factor and taking a leap that would help help push the Jazz into playoff contention is that we’ve seen him do it before. It’s one thing to project a young player to take a leap to a level he hasn’t been before, but Collins was a borderline All-Star and was ranked number 51 in SI’s annual Top 100 NBA Player Rankings just three years ago. A new environment, new coach, and a fully healed shooting hand finger may be the secret ingredients to getting him back to a closer version of his previous self.

An important thing to remember about Collins that is often forgotten is that he will only be turning 26 years old on September 23. This isn’t projecting a 32-year-old to play like his 28-year-old self. John Collins should be entering his prime, and a potential Kessler, Collins, Markkanen front court could pose some major problems for opposing teams. They can have massive size, while still maintaining shooting across four positions with Kessler anchoring the defense.

Ochai becomes elite 3-and-D Starter

The Jazz may have the best depth and talent in the frontcourt compared to any other team in the league. Backcourt and wing depth though… starts to become more concerning. They definitely have talent, but there are a lot more unanswered questions compared to obvious answers. If a few players can make a leap and a more clear pecking order between obvious starter versus reserves can be established, it could do wonders for this team.

The player that first comes to mind in that regard is Ochai Agbaji. The Jazz have a lack of wing stoppers that can both handle the quicker crafty guards, but can then also physically handle the Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, Paul George types. At 6’5″, 215 pounds, paired with elite athleticism, Agbaji can be that player.

Ochai finally receive solid and consistent playing time in the early parts of January. Beginning January 5, he played every game and received double-digit minutes in every game. During that stretch he averaged 10.1 points and shot 37 percent from three on nearly five attempts per game. He also started the final 20 games of the season and upped the scoring average to 13.6 points. As a starter, playing 30 minutes per game and being more of a focal point due to Clarkson and Sexton being out, his shooting dropped to 39 percent from the field and 32.8 percent from three.

I can envision Ochai becoming the souped up version of what Royce O’Neale was for this team. Defend the best wing scorer on the other team, and move off-ball and knock down threes at a high-level on the other side. Ochai is taller than O’Neale, more athletic, and a much better shooter though. If he can become the player he’s capable of being sooner rather than later, he could be a major x-factor in helping the Jazz make the playoffs.

Kessler receives the FIBA bump

He didn’t log a ton of playing time for Team USA, but playing organized basketball under Steve Kerr and alongside some of the best young players in the league is going to have a positive impact on Walker Kessler. We’ve seen a large history of young players participating with team USA, and then going on to have a career year the following season. After a strong rookie season where he finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and was a First-Team All-Rookie, if Kessler can take another leap forward, he could be a major impactor to the Jazz making a surprise playoff appearance.

We’ve all made the parallels to Kessler and Rudy Gobert, but a common thought around Gobert was that as long as he was healthy, you could surround him with rec league guys and defensively you were still going to be a top-10 team. Offensively, as limited as he was, his high-level screening and the pressure he put on the rim also always led to Gobert being a major net positive on the offensive side as well. Similar to Gobert, Kessler has the potential to turn the Jazz into an elite level defense all on his own. Kessler was one of the best interior defensive players as a rookie last season, averaging 3 blocks per game as a starter in only 28 minutes. On shots defended within six feet, opponents shot just 51.3 percent, which was fourth best in the league behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bismack Biyombo, and Jaren Jackson Jr. He’s not on his own though, he’ll be flanked by 6’10” Collins, 7’0″ Markkanen, 6’11” Kelly Olynyk, and 6’10” Taylor Hendricks. If Kessler becomes an even better defensive player in year 2, the Jazz may be looking at a much improved team defense.

If Kessler returns from Team USA with added confidence and increased skills due to time spent with some of the best trainers, coaches and players the US has to offer, then the Jazz will be able to boast one of the best, biggest and versatile frontcourts in the league. Last season, the Jazz had the ninth ranked offense in the league, and with the added size of Collins and Hendricks, paired with improvements from Kessler and Ochai, they could potentially have a Top 10 Defensive as well. Being Top 10 in Offense and Defense has always been the recipe of a playoff team, but it will start with Kessler making a jump and being our anchor in the paint.