Who should start at point guard for the Jazz?

Which guard will be at the helm of Will Hardy’s offense when the Jazz’s season starts? (Photos via sltrib.com)

The Utah Jazz roster may essentially be set for 2023-24. Unless the Jazz made additional moves in free agency after having their offer sheet to Paul Reed matched, we know who is going to be a part of next year’s team. Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler figure to start in the frontcourt, with Kelly Olynyk and Taylor Hendricks penciled in as primary backups and a sprinkling of Simone Fontecchio and Luka Samanic. Rising sophomore Ochai Agbaji may slide to the three as well, but he and Jordan Clarkson will mostly manage the shooting guard spot.

That leaves point guard, the rotation argument that gives the fan base the most struggle. Who deserves to be the starting point guard for the Utah Jazz?

Utah has a lot of capable guards who each have a solid argument for needing playing time. Collin Sexton, Talen-Horton Tucker, Kris Dunn and now Keyonte George are the prime suspects, and even Clarkson showed an increased ability to be a facilitator last season.

Let’s assume JC will continue to play shooting guard like he historically has. Dunn could see time as a backup, but the 29-year-old vet only started three of his 22 Jazz games even as Utah’s late-season rest strategies opened the door for others. So it feels unlikely Dunn will start at point guard.

That leaves us with three intriguing options for Utah’s starting point guard role.

Collin Sexton

The most obvious option is likely Sexton, a top-10 pick in the 2018 draft who is still just 24 years old. In his career, he has averaged 19 points per game and just two seasons ago with the Cleveland Cavaliers, he reached 24.3 points per game. His next season was cut short due to injury, and he only appeared in the first 11 games. He was then traded to the Jazz last offseason in the deal that also brought Markkanen. Sexton’s first season with the Jazz was a strange one. In his career, he had started in 208 out of a possible 218 games. With the Jazz, he only started in 15 of the 48 games he suited up in. He primarily served as a change-of-pace guard behind Mike Conley Jr. until the latter was included in a trade deadline deal.

Sexton started a 9-game stretch in November while Conley was out with an injury, and then he started five more games after Conley was traded. After that, he appeared in just one game as he managed his own injuries and as Utah played it safe with a surgically repaired knee.

Sexton has clearly shown that he can be a high-level scorer in this league, and at the guard positions, the Jazz can definitely use all the scoring they can get. Averaging 19 points per game in his career and having two full seasons averaging over 20 points per game is nothing to sleep on.

There are two big questions for Sexton going forward though. First, for as great of a scorer he can be, can he orchestrate a productive offense? Sexton has a career assist average of 3.2 per game, compared to his career turnover average of 2.4. Per Cleaning the Glass, his career assist to usage rate percentage has been in the bottom 30 percent for his position since entering the NBA. That’s not great for a lead point guard. In the two seasons that Sexton averaged over 20 points per game for the Cavs, their Offensive Rating ranked 26th and 28th in the NBA, and they finished a combined 41-96. In the year he mostly missed due to injury, Cleveland’s offense was better when he sat. It’s worth monitoring how he impacts Utah’s overall efficiency.

Second, if Sexton is a great scorer but not a great facilitator, he may simply better suited to a sixth man role like Clarkson in the previous iteration of the team. Will Hardy could give him the ultimate green light and he can become the Jazz’s scorer off the bench. In the 15 games he started last season, Sexton averaged 16.5 points and 4.8 assists, and the Jazz went 6-9. In seven minutes less off the bench, he still averaged 13.2 points, and the Jazz went 24-24. 

Sexton brings a lot to the table for the Jazz. They need his scoring, and they need the pure unrivaled energy that he brings each and every second he is on the floor. It will not shock me if he is the starting point guard on day one, but he would need to have a strong focus on being a table-setter to bring Hardy’s offense to life.

Talen Horton-Tucker

It is shocking to me that more people aren’t on the Talen Horton-Tucker train. Really when you are talking about THT, the question is whether or not you believe in his performance as a starter to close the season. With Conley gone and Sexton ailing, THT was thrust into a more prominent role to close the season. In the final 24 games of the season (19 starts), he averaged 17.3 points, 6.2 assist, and 4.8 rebounds. The Jazz did just have a 7-12 record in his 19 starts, but you have to remember that this was the final stretch of the season and the Jazz were playing their main guys sparingly.

That stretch included this wild game:

People seem to forget that THT is still somehow only 22 years old! There were four rookies drafted in the first round of this most recent draft that are older than him. While he definitely has some flaws and areas of opportunity, he is young enough for optimism that he has a real shot to improve those areas.

The most interesting thing to me on THT is how he performed depending on what his role was last season. In games that he played greater than 30 minutes, he averaged 21 points, 6.5 assist and 6 rebounds. In 20-29 minutes, he averaged 13.5 points, 5 assists and 4.1 rebounds. In games where he played less than 20 minutes, his averages dipped to 6 points, 2.4 assists and 1.1 rebounds. Simply put, THT is not one of those players who can fit into any role. He seems to need larger minutes and usage to impact games. During the final 24 games of the season, he had a usage rate of 29.9 percent! During that same time, Markkanen had a usage rate of 30.5 percent. Markkanen also averaged 28.2 points with THT having that high usage and production, so his usage wasn’t taking away from the All-Star.

As with Sexton, there are legitimate conerns, starting with the fact that Utah may not be the best version of itself with THT being the second highest usage rate player. That was mostly an anomally because Clarkson and Sexton were out with injuries, and if the current Jazz team is healthy he’ll have to yield some touches to those other guards as well as now Collins. Because he’s not a consistent threat from three, he doesn’t always draw a lot of attention unless he has the tall. THT is a career 28 percent three-point shooter, but he was able to up that to 32 percent on four attempts per game with the Jazz. His ability to be productive as a spot-up shooter and not just a primary ball-handler may be the difference between his ability to gain the starting role or not. Again though, at only 22 years old and in a contract year, THT could put up a productive season if given the opportunity.

Keyonte George

Jazz fans are super hyped about Utah’s second 2023 draft selection. George has absolutely been balling out during the Summer League. After a slow start to the SLC portion, he found his way to averages of 16.3 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists. Then in the first two games in Vegas, he put up 29.5 points and 8.5 assists, while shooting 53.8 percent from the field and 44 percent from three, before an ankle injury on Wednesday night.

Key was the seventh ranked prospect coming out of high school, but when he got to Baylor, he was asked to play the small forward due to the other guards on the roster. In response, he upped his weight 15 pounds to better fit the position, but that seemed to slow him down and cost him some explosivity, and then he didn’t look the same after a midseason ankle injury. Concerns over how he looked while playing out of position and hurt at Baylor are what caused him to fall to the Jazz at number 16. Now though, he trimmed back down to his preferred weight and moved back to guard — and boy, does he look explosive.

“I was a little bit heavier. That’s no excuse at the end of the day, but you see the change, and now I feel great,” George said. “I definitely like it. I feel lighter, I’ll be able to cut faster, be faster downhill. Those are the main differences I see, but also being able to play above the rim, get higher now. The change in weight has been good for me.”

There’s still some uncertainty about his best NBA position. The Jazz clearly want to turn him into a lead guard type at his size, which why I have really watched his Summer League play to gauge his ability to be more than a scorer. In order to start at point guard, he’d have to show the Jazz he can run an offense as a facilitator and creator for others, rather than just for himself. We know he is going to be able to score, but in college he had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio: 95 turnovers to just 91 assists. So far in this Summer League, he has answered that question loud and clear. In five games, he has racked up 30 assists to just 10 turnovers, including his incredible 33-point game verses the Clippers where he also had 10 dimes. (He had two assists and one turnover before exiting Wednesday’s game.)

Ultimately though, very few 19-year-old rookies are in a position to make an immediate and positive impact on a team hoping to get to the playoffs. Key appears to have bright future ahead of him, but it is rare that a rookie point guard has a positive impact on winning right away. A real concern would be how he will hold up on the defensive end. Already in the Summer League, we have seen him struggle with awareness and getting through and around screens. Those aren’t things that are surprising for any rookie, but if you want him to be the starter from day one, you may also have to be okay with the Jazz having some growing pains that will impact their win-loss record.

So who is it?

What I suspect the Jazz will do with their starting PG spot and what I hope they’ll do are two separate questions.

At the end of the day, I would expect Sexton to be the starter heading into next season. Rumors around draft time suggested the Jazz could be open to trades involving Sexton, but if nothing materializes, he has the lead to be the day one starter. As a starter last season, he did increase his assists to 4.8 per game compared to his career average of 3.2. If he can be more of a facilitator while continuing to be a scoring threat, he’s a great option.

Personally, I’d love to see the Jazz give the reins to Horton-Tucker and see how much of his late-season push is sustainable. He is only 22 years old and showed real flashes of sustained success over the final quarter of the season. He is a better passer than people realize, he is a great rebounder for the point guard position, and he has the length and strength to be a plus defender guarding multiple positions.

The Jazz may not have a star point guard on the roster. (Not yet anyway, check back on George in 2-3 years.) What they do have plenty of solid options available to them. It’ll be interesting to see which of the multiple options will step up during training camp and preseason to seize the reins.