Would Load Management Ruin the Season?

It’s hard not to be optimistic about the upcoming Jazz season with the added offensive weapons and already elite defensive makeup. Depending on where you look, the Jazz are mostly slated to win 50 plus games and finish somewhere in the top half of the Western Conference standings.  ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has the Jazz virtually tied for 4th place in the West, but with only 46.7 wins. The win total feels low, but that seems to be due to the nature of Pelton’s projection system that predicts no NBA team to win 54 games. What stands out, however, is a line of reasoning for the Jazz’s lower prediction from Pelton:

“Utah’s projection has dropped by virtue of the hit the team’s depth took. Additionally, Conley is projected to play only 64 games, and an extended absence would leave the Jazz short-handed at point guard.” 

The Jazz are deeper than Pelton gives them credit for, but a major injury to Conley, Mitchell, or Gobert, would certainly put a damper on the season. Conley is probably most susceptible to the injury bug at the ripe age of 32 and having played no more than 70 games any of the last 5 seasons. If Conley missed 18 games I would have a hard time picking the Jazz to be anything more than a middle of the pack team in the West, so I agree with Pelton there. But is there any way the Jazz could lighten Conley’s load of an 82 game schedule, prevent injury and still be an elite team in the NBA?

Popovich is probably the Godfather of resting players in the Modern NBA era.

Load management has become the hot topic of the NBA season in the last 12 months, although it’s not a new concept. In 2017 Adam Silver sent a warning to teams that they could be fined for resting star players. In response Lebron James defended his decision to sit games by saying that Gregg Popovich had been resting players “for years” and also called it “the smartest thing.”

When asked about the resting issue in 2017, Popovich had this to say:

“The one comment that I’ve heard that makes a lot of sense, is that if you’re gonna rest somebody, if you can do it at home, then you should. Like, we’re resting Danny Green tonight. Danny Green is not LeBron James, but if we rested Kawhi, if there’s a way we could do it at home, that seems like a logical thing to me; a reasonable thing that a coach or GM should think about, rather than one time somebody’s gonna watch him play someplace else, if you can do it. Sometimes the schedule dictates differently. But that makes sense to me.”

It’s incredible how far the league has come in regards to resting players. Two years ago Popovich had to tiptoe around the issue. Today it is a necessary part of managing an 82 game schedule and greatly benefitted the Raptors in winning a championship. Not every team feels like they can do it, because playoff seeding matters for them. The Jazz may be one of those teams. 

The Jazz should consider resting 2 of the 3 players seen here this season. (Photo via espn.com)

There is a lack of scientific evidence to support the necessity or manner of “resting” players, although any issue this new will be short of supporting evidence. There is some evidence, however, and it’s hard not to imagine that the decrease of back to back games and four games in 5 night in NBA schedules is due to such research.  

In terms of the Jazz, let’s look at a case by case basis on who would benefit from load management:

Mike Conley

Conley is essentially the 2nd oldest Jazz man on the team and has played an average of 33 minutes per game over a 12 year career. On top of that, he just came off a season that saw him have a career high in usage and shot attempts. Other than lacking a deep playoff run, you could argue that Conley had the biggest load on him last season compared to any other year.  

Joe Ingles

Ingles is 9 days older than Mike Conley, but he had the highest usage of his career last season and was asked to carry a large share of ball handling duties. He has only missed one game in the last 4 seasons and holds the current consecutive games played title among NBA players.  Games off might not be necessary, but a decrease in minutes and especially in usage, would probably be useful.

Donovan Mitchell

At his age, it probably isn’t necessary to give Donovan games off completely, but if Conley and Bogdanovic are able to take some of the shotmaking and ball handling load off Mitchell, it should help him tremendously for a 100 game run.

Rudy Gobert

Unless Tony Bradley shows that he can handle 20 minutes in an NBA game, it is probably unrealistic to purposely rest Rudy for complete games. Similarly, Gobert’s health is paramount for this season given the makeup of the team.

Bojan Bogdanovic

Bogdanovic has never played more than 31 mpg in a season and the Jazz would be smart to keep that trend up, using Ingles, O’Neale, Exum, and Oni to fill forward minutes. Bogdanovic has also only missed 5 games in the last 3 seasons.

How Might Load Management Work

There are a handful of games that provide an opportunity for the Jazz to rest. These games include back to backs, games that the Jazz are very likely to win, even with a shortened roster, or games that the Jazz are likely to lose, even at full strength. It’s a worthy debate whether the Jazz should take breaks during games they should win, since losing those games would be extra detrimental, but there are games that the Jazz should win, even without a starter or two. With all that in mind, here are 8 games, this season that the Jazz should consider sitting a player or two:

Jazz at 76ers- Dec 2

I can already hear the groans from Jazz fans reading this, but this game is not important to the Jazz at all and is probably a loss any way you slice it. It would certainly feel good to beat Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid on their own floor, but the Jazz should look at the big picture. This game is the 5th in 7 nights, on a back to back and the last game of a 5 game road trip. Give Conley the night off and let Exum and Mudiay guard Philly’s bigger guards. Jazz could even consider giving Gobert the night off and starting Tony Bradley for some experience in a matchup that suits him.

Knicks at Jazz – Jan 8

This is a back to back for the Knicks and the final game of a West Coast four game road trip. Last year Dante Exum started this game on his way to 13 points and 13 assists and the Jazz led 71-34 at the half. Like last year, this would be an ideal time to get the starting point guard some rest.

Thunder at Jazz= Dec 9

Back to Back for the Thunder, but not the Jazz. The Jazz have already shown they can beat the Thunder without Mike Conley making any baskets.

Heat at Jazz- Feb 12

This is the last game for both teams before the All-Star Break. It’s a weird matchup for Conley with Justise Winslow at point guard, but the Jazz will be at home and the Heat will be finishing a five game road trip and will almost assuredly be looking toward the All-Star break more than battling it out in Salt Lake.

Jazz at Nuggets- Jan 30

A back to back in Denver is almost an automatic “L.” It would be incredible to sweep the Nuggets this year, but the Jazz should just play for 3-1.

Wizards at Jazz- Feb 28

On paper the Wizards have the worst roster in the NBA, although they’ve been surprisingly competitive so far. This is a tough game for the Eastern Coast team, going two hours West in time zones and playing a team that knows how to defend Bradley Beal very effectively.

Jazz at Pistons- Mar 7

Back to Back at the tail end of a four game road trip. Even if Reggie Jackson is back, the Pistons don’t have the point guard play to spook the Jazz. A nice time to get Conley some rest.

Grizzlies at Jazz- Mar 14

There is a running theme of resting Conley on back to backs, but this Grizzlies team will probably be playing a full team of young guys at this point of the season. Should be a game the Jazz can rest starters and still win.