Writer Panel: Keys and Expectations for the Jazz’s Stretch Run

The Jazz have some big tests coming up, including two games against the Thunder. (Joe Murphy via okcthunder.com)

Fifty-seven down. Twenty-five to go.

The Utah Jazz’s season resumes Friday following the league’s All-Star break. The NBA has 48 more nights to sort out the jumble that is the Western Conference standings, and for the 32-25 Jazz, that means trying to climb from the sixth seed over the final 25 games.

We asked a panel of SCH writers how far they think the Jazz can go, and what the keys are to defining and achieving success. Dig in!

How will you measure success over the Jazz’s final 25 games?

Clint Johnson: Do the Jazz reach the No. 5 or better in the West. They still have arguably the easiest remaining schedule in the league, whereas Houston and Portland have moderately challenging schedules and Oklahoma City faces possibly the most difficult closing stretch in the league. The Jazz should pass at least one of those teams in the standings if they play the way they need entering the playoffs.

Thatcher Olson: The most successful thing the Jazz can do over the last 25 games of the season is to get into “playoff form.” This means maintaining their defensive excellence, staying injury free, and finalizing their playoff rotation. Hopefully Dante Exum’s consistent play can be a part of that, and the fifth-year guard can become a steady part of a nine-man rotation. The Jazz will likely end up between three and seven. Although some first-round matchups are preferable, there are no easy first-round opponents in the Western Conference and no team from two to eight that the Jazz can’t beat if they’re playing well.

Clark Schmutz: I hate to be too demanding, but at this point, a top-6 seed and 49 wins feels like a baseline expectation. But I could forgive regular season faltering if they can compensate in the playoffs.

David J. Smith: While record and seed will most definitely be important as the season finishes up, I would be looking at how the team is performing on the court. The process seems to have already started (winning 14 of 19 helps big time), but will the team be as simpatico as it was to end last season? Will they be cohesive defensively? Will we see the stellar passing continue? Will we see another post-All-Star Ricky Rubio resurgence? Like Joe Ingles said, the team wants to be playing its best ball of the season going into the postseason.

Dane Coles: I’ve decided to be a little more critical with these questions regarding the remainder of the season. Only because the lack of off season and deadline deals were meant to keep team chemistry high. Well, if if Utah can’t channel that continuity into consistent play leading to wins over playoff caliber teams, why would chemistry be a priority over aggressively acquiring better players? Having said that, I think a successful ending of the season is finishing between the fourth and sixth seeds. 

What game during the stretch run are you most looking forward to?

Clint: Thunder at Jazz, March 11. This game will be as much a toss-up game as remains on the schedule, and that makes it key in the fight for playoff seeding. Utah is five games behind OKC in the loss column at present, which is a lot to make up given the number of games yet to be played. But the Thunder schedule is brutal, so there’s a chance that this game might put even the third seed into play.

Thatcher: Maybe it’s because it’s top of mind on the current calendar, or maybe it’s because they haven’t played in months, but Oklahoma City. This is a team the Jazz beat in the playoffs last year, but OKC has certainly improved. Part of this could be attributed to more depth with players like Dennis Schröder, Nerlens Noel and others, but I’d attribute most of it to Paul George. He is a a legitimate top-5 MVP candidate, and he is having a career year. It will be interesting to see how the Jazz and Thunder match up, and whether they can slow down George as they did during last year’s playoff win.

Clark: The game at the Thunder on Friday. Maybe it is just the 10-day break, but I also like watching Utah play the Thunder. I’m not expecting a win, but I think that game will set a tempo for the Jazz to finish the season.

David: There are a number of match-ups that intrigue me. The two games versus the Oklahoma City Thunder loom large. I will be interested to see where the Lakers stand come those two outings in the final eight games. But the game I have circled on my calendar is the final home game, versus division rival Denver. The Nuggets have been one of the stories of the season. They have some difficult stretches these last two months. Chances are they will weather the storm and maintain a high seed. But stranger things have happened. Could this April 9 game loom large?  

Dane: Friday’s game against OKC is huge. The first game back from All-Star break will set the tone and propel the Jazz into the lighter section of the schedule. But more importantly, this is a high emotion game between two teams that battled in the playoffs last year. OKC already won the first two games of this season series. If the Jazz fail to take this game, or at least keep it competitive, it gives OKC a mental edge and shows the Jazz may not have what it takes to contend with top tier Western Conference opponents.

What’s one improvement by a Jazz player or the team as a whole that would significantly change the team heading into the playoffs? 

Clint: Donovan Mitchell’s effective field goal rate. It’s a lot to ask for a second-year player with the offensive burden he carries, but it’s also what would transform the Jazz. Mitchell has the potential to be a high usage, high (or at least moderate) efficiency scorer. That’s the player who playoff defenses fear. That’s the player who would create offensive opportunities for everyone else on the roster, lifting their games. Pair that with Utah’s defense and the Jazz probably become the every Western team’s most dreaded playoff opponent outside of the Warriors.

Thatcher: Until the Jazz give up on him or he excels, the answer may always be Exum. While I am still a big fan, I’ve begun to recalibrate my expectations. I now view Exum’s ceiling as a very good defender that can switch with ease from 1 through 3, a strong driver and finisher, a good passer, and a passable shooter. I don’t know if he’ll become the future starting point guard of the Jazz, but he should at least be a valuable bench player and third guard. If he contributes more than 15-20 minutes a game this season, it will be because he is excelling, which will be a huge positive for the Jazz and their playoff hopes.

Clark: Three-point shooting overall has some room for improvement. Royce O’Neale is on fire and Exum and Jae Crowder are shooting as expected from distance, but Rubio, Mitchell, Kyle Korver and especially Ingles could all get hot and get back to average performance from deep.

David: Not sure I can stick with one stat, so here are a few. Mitchell’s recent uptick in free throws is big. If he can stay close to his nearly 7 FTA/game in January, he becomes all the more dangerous. O’Neale is playing the best basketball of his young career. He is shooting lights out in February (69-65-88 splits). While I doubt he can keep up that 65 3% rate, if he can keep at 42% or higher (which he has done each month outside November), it adds another much needed weapon for the Jazz offense.

Dane: Consistency from Korver. His singular role on this team is to give the team 15 plus minutes of three point accuracy. When the team sees threes going down, it is contagious. This also creates space for Donovan to go to work.  Korver has had multiple games this year where he does not make a single shot or only makes one of four or more attempts. If the Jazz want to make a run to the second round again, it will take consistency from Korver on a nightly basis. 

The Jazz have a better record than 20 of their final 25 opponents. Who will benefit most from the softer schedule?

Clint: Ingles. His lack of athleticism is a liability against teams that brim with talent, execute smart schemes, and are playing hard. Against teams that lack these attributes, however, his diverse game and smarts make him a much more effective player. I expect him to finish really strong, and probably to lift his three point shooting a bit against teams indifferent to closing out on shooters, which happens when a squad knows its ownership is more invested in draft position than winning games.

Thatcher: Mitchell. In Jazz wins, Donovan is shooting 45% and 35% from three. In losses, he is shooting 38% and 28%. An easier schedule and lighter competition will likely help Donovan get back into the groove (after a phenomenal January and a rough start to February) and ready for the playoffs.

Clark: Ingles. He’s one of the oldest players and is asked to carry a pretty big offensive and defensive load. I expect to see a much fresher Aussie from here on out.

David: Exum and Korver. Once again, Exum was playing some stellar ball before his setback. Going against lesser opponents (and teams shutting down players, both playoff teams in secure seeds and lottery-bound squads) will hopefully help him get back into the groove. Korver’s shooting has been such a catalyst in the season’s change. A lot of the teams Utah faces are not great offensively, which means he should be able to have some big outings. If he can enter the postseason firing on all cylinders, he can prove to be huge in April and May.

Dane: The role players. Players on the depth chart listed 6-9 will be able to get fairly significant playing time in some of these quote/unquote “easier” games. O’Neale, who has been fantastic of late will continue to see major minutes at the three and four positions. Re-integrating Exum and Thabo Sefolosha will be key in this playoff push. This lighter schedule should give the role players a chance to solidify themselves in the lineup before the playoffs. Giving the Jazz their full arsenal just in time. 

Call your shot: where will the Jazz land in the Western Conference standings?

Clint: Fourth. Houston is hurt and old and Harden will get exhausted, the only question is when. Portland improved by bringing in former Jazz players and will be tough to pass by, but I think Utah’s creampuff schedule is probably enough to do it. I’d love to say they’ll reel in the Thunder as well, and it is possible given Oklahoma City’s horrendous schedule. But the Thunder are really good and have enough of a lead in the standings that I think Utah stays beneath them in the seeding.

Thatcher: Fifth place.

Clark: The Jazz capture the No. 4 seed with 51 wins.

David: I see Utah finishing with a 50-32 record, good for the fourth seed. I see them jumping Portland and Houston. Denver and Oklahoma City both have enough of a cushion to stay where they are.

Dane: In the Western Conference this year, literally anything is possible. The Jazz are two and a half games out of fourth for home court advantage. Personally, I do not see that happening. Not that I don’t believe that Jazz can go on a run, I fully believe that. But Houston just got Clint Capela back, Portland is a veteran-led group, and OKC is absolutely rolling. The margin of error is very small here for the Jazz to make a last-minute climb. I predict the Jazz finish sixth and play the Nuggets in the first round.