An Honest Look at Conley’s All-Star Chances

Could the Jazz wind up with three All-Stars this year? (David Sherman via espn.com)

Mike Conley deserves to be a 2021 All-Star.

The veteran guard has never made an All-Star team, but he’s having his best season in many respects. He leads the league in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric that gauges overall impact through stats and on-off numbers, and he also ranks in the top 20 in RPM, BPM, Win Shares, Net Rating, VORP and other macro stats. He’s averaging 17 points, six assists and four boards as the stabilizing force on the team that currently sits atop the league standings.

But here’s the problem: a lot of guys deserve to be All-Stars. That’s the case every year: 12 spots isn’t enough to recognize all of the brilliant play and positive impact across 15 Western Conference teams. 

There are eight Western Conference guards who, frankly, SHOULD be All-Stars. Eight, and that’s without counting CJ McCollum who was undeniably playing at an All-Star level before an injury took him out for a month or more. There are a maximum of six guard spots available, and that’s only if guards claim both “wildcard” spots again, as they did last year. Here are eight that are unquestionably “worthy” of All-Star selections, even though not all of them can earn them:

• Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard are locks, and probably starters. Along with James Harden (now in the East), they got the most poitns in the combined fan-player-media vote than anybody else, by a wide margin. Steph Curry, injured last year, is also a lock. Those three are the true superstar guards of the West, and whichever of the three doesn’t get in on the fan vote will be the easiest ballot choice for Western Conference coaches, who will be responsible for selecting the reserves.
• 2020 All-Stars Donovan Mitchell, Chris Paul* and Devin Booker are all likely to repeat.
• All-Star virgins Conley and Jamal Murray have been on the cusp before, but both are having stellar seasons for two of the conference’s top teams. (CJ McCollum fits here too, but again, he will have missed too many games.)

(*You can quibble with CP3 based on declining stats, but coaches love those emeritus picks, and even though his raw numbers are down slightly, he’s exactly the kind of superstar who often makes it in based on résumé. Also, any counting stats argument you make against Paul (15-5-9) also weakens Conley’s case (17-4-6). The argument for both of those guys is centered on overall impact, not raw numbers.)

That’s without considering the strong cases from transplanted Eastern Conference All-Stars Victor Oladipo and D’Angelo Russell, or from youngsters De’Aaron Fox or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Those four are all averaging 20+ and leading their teams, but being central figures on lottery squads doesn’t always get it done. Those four are likely to draw some votes, if nothing else. (Ja Morant has barely played this year, but he absolutely belongs with that group of youngsters who are headed for star status.)

It gets even harder for someone like Conley or Murray to crash the party if guards don’t get both wildcard spots this time around. That’s quite possible, as superstar forward Paul George is back in the All-Star mix after some early-season injuries kept him off the 2020 All-Star team. He’s a lock to reclaim the status, averaging 24-6-5 on an elite team.

PG-13’s All-Star return could cost a guard a wildcard spot, unless he instead unseats one of last year’s six frontcourt players who were selected. LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis are mortal locks, though, and 2020 All-Stars Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert and Brandon Ingram all deserve to repeat. The frontcourt has its own first-time hopefuls, too. Zion Williamson and Christian Wood are both averaging 23-plus.

A bevy of past All-Stars also reside in the West, although most of them are role players now, or producing far less than they did at their All-Star peaks. The guy with the best case is DeMar DeRozan, who’s quietly averaging 20-5-7 for the surprising Spurs, currently fifth in the West. 

So far we’ve rattled off the names of 22 guys who have an earnest case. Most of them have better individual numbers than Conley, so any argument for Mike is going to come down to team success and the on-court impact of the veteran guard.

A look at leading candidates for the 2021 Western Conference All-Stars

Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Conley has the strongest case of any of the potential first-timers OR the former All-Stars near the bottom of that graphic. He’d still have to beat out two of 13 above him on that list: 11 2020 All-Stars still in the West plus Steph and PG. The seven at the top are locks, and Jokic and Gobert will likely be safe because of the six dedicated frontcourt spots on the ballot. That leaves Ingram, the Phoenix guards, and of course Conley’s own teammate, Mitchell.

The Mitchell/Conley argument is actually kind of fascinating. One is a more traditional type of star with big numbers and highlight plays, while the other has powered the Jazz with the smarts and intangibles behind his league-leading plus/minus. But let’s be honest: Mitchell is going to be the default choice if Western Conference coaches vote for only one Utah guard. His production is basically identical to last season’s, and he’s the guy opposing coaches are primarily game-planning for when they prepare to face Utah’s top-5 offense. So if Conley makes it, it will likely be as a third Jazz All-Star, not by supplanting Mitchell.

Landing three isn’t all that uncommon — for elite teams. The 2020 All-Star Game was the first time since 2007 that there wasn’t at least one team with three All-Star representatives. Some teams — like the GSW superteams and early 2010s Atlanta — had four in the same year. 

So which two can Conley feasibly beat out from among Ingram, Booker and Paul?

Stats of candidates for WC guard/wildcard spots

Ingram might be the most vulnerable 2020 All-Star. His production is basically identical to last year, but his team is 6-10 as of this writing, 14th in the conference. His selection last year had a lot to do with his team outperforming expectations. That said, he’s the highest scorer of this fringe group.

Both Booker and Paul have slightly lower individual numbers than last year, but again, you have to be careful crafting a pro-Conley case around counting stats. That said, if Mitchell is in and Ingram is out, it could come down to two of Booker, Paul and Conley making it. Booker’s advanced stats make his case more problematic, but who knows how deep coaches will look beyond the obvious offensive skill. Paul doesn’t have a single metric that screams “All-Star!” but he’s a respected commodity who will get a lot of votes almost by default.

The point here is, it’s going to come down to the eyes of 15 beholders. Some will vote for Booker, the primary engine on a team projected to finish in the top six. Some will vote for Paul, this generation’s Point God and the force that instantly legitimized the Suns. Some will vote for Conley because of his impact on a surprise contender.

Of course, all of that was based on the assumption that Conley leads the pack of potential first-time All-Stars. That might be the case, but it’s not a sure thing. Murray (19 points & 4 assists, coming off a historic postseason), Williamson (24 & 8, plus undeniable raw starpower) and Wood (23 & 11) could all siphon votes from Mountain Mike depending on what coaches value.

To these eyes, Conley’s credentials outweigh the remaining guards (SGA, Fox, Dipo, DAR) based on their teams’ sub-.500 records, but there is no fixed criteria around team quality. The Spurs’ success strengthens DeRozan’s case, but I’d rate Conley ahead of him, too.

Frankly, a lot might come down to the next month. Starters will be announced on February 18, and the coaches will then have a couple of days to get their ballots in before reserves are named on February 23. If any of these 22 candidates hits a rough patch (or goes bonkers) in the next three weeks, that could be enough to dictate where the swing votes land. 

Conley deserves it. So do 20 or so others. Whether or not he makes his first All-Star team in 14 NBA seasons is going to come down to how far coaches will look past the box score and toward impact on winning.