After 20+ Games, the Hot-Shooting Jazz Appear Ready to Contend

The best start in more than a decade has the Jazz flexing. (via ESPN.com)

Not too high, not too low. One of Quin Snyder’s mantras rings especially true after a loss to the Nuggets that was not as close as the 11-point margin suggests. This came after one of the most enjoyable stretches of Jazz play in recent fandom — an 11-game winning streak that felt more dominant than flukey. The loss to Denver aside, the Jazz reached the 20-game mark in excellent shape. Today, we’ll look at where the Jazz stand at this logical milepost, as well as outstanding questions as the club looks ahead.

 We won’t dwell on the Denver loss, except to point out a few reasons why that result didn’t shatter the idea that this Jazz team is the real deal:

• Nikola Jokic is an MVP front-runner, and had the best quarter of his life.
• The Jazz were playing their 4th game in five and a half days.
• The Nuggets shot an otherworldly percentage, especially early on. That the Jazz lost by only 11 is actually impressive.
• The Jazz experimented with a new defensive strategy — it didn’t work, but I don’t begrudge them for trying it at this point of the season.
• The Nuggets remain one of the best teams in the league and a competitive matchup for the Jazz.

So. What do we make of this Jazz team now that one quarter¹ of the season has passed? This is going to be a grab bag article jumping across varying topics.

Team trends

Yes, the 3s

Much has been written about the historic proliferation of threes. All non-center rotation players are shooting a career high percentage from deep, and five Jazz players are shooting 40% or better. As a team they lead the league in 3-point frequency and third in 3-point accuracy (excluding blowout minutes and end-of-quarter heaves).

Offensive rebounds

The Jazz are also ranked first in offensive rebounding rate, and as Zach Lowe observed, it’s fairly uncommon for teams to be elite in 3-point shooting and offensive rebound rate. The Jazz’s effective pick-and-roll play is putting them in a position to rebound well; Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors often wind up with a size advantage on rebound opportunities, and this year the Jazz are allowing perimeter players like Royce O’Neale, Mike Conley, and Miye Oni to opportunistically chase rebounds from the corners.

Age is no issue

The Jazz have the league’s sixth oldest roster by average age. Before the season many worried if Conley or Joe Ingles may slow down — the opposite has been true. If anything, the older average age is a positive sign for this year’s success. If you’re unconvinced, the five teams older than the Jazz are the Bucks, Heat, Nets, Clippers, and Lakers. Contenders are always stocked with vets in their 30s. If you sort age by rotation players, the Jazz have the second oldest rotation.

Best start since 2006

The Jazz have not had a better start or held the No. 1 seed this far into the season since since the 2006-07 season. The 11-game win streak is the 5th best in franchise history. They found themselves a half game outside of the league’s top spot after losing to Denver, but have since retaken the best record in the NBA, and they are number one in adjusted efficiency differential.

A balanced roster

The Jazz have one of the league’s best top-8 rotational groups, and production has been balanced from top to bottom. The Jazz are not as top-heavy as the LA teams, and have better bench play than the Bucks and Nets. It’s been refreshing to not hold your breath when the reserves check in. Six players are averaging double figures in scoring.

Jazz forcing other teams to adapt

When the Jazz signed Favors, it felt like the Jazz might switch lineups on a matchup basis, sometimes pairing Favors and Gobert against bigger teams. This has rarely been used. Snyder was okay with Bojan Bogdanovic guarding Zion Williamson, for example. Instead of adapting to other teams, the Jazz are forcing other teams to adapt to them. Basketball executive Dennis Lindsey could have targeted a non-shooting perimeter defender in free agency, but instead built the team in a way that a rim-rolling center surrounded by four shooters are on the floor at all times.

Individual trends

Conley has been the obvious standout, and reserve scorer Jordan Clarkson is off to a hot start. Aside from those two, here are some other interesting individual trends:

• While Ingles is playing about five fewer minutes than last year, he’s averaging career highs in points per 36 minutes, 3-point percentage, true shooting percentage, rim finishing (per Cleaning the Glass), mid-range accuracy, PER, turnover percentage, win-shares per 48, and box plus/minus.
• Gobert is playing about four fewer minutes than last year, but is averaging career highs in rebounds per game, blocks per game, turnover rate, and foul rate. His poor finishing (by his standards) has snuck up to 67% (last year was his career best at 74%). His dreadful free-throw shooting is also climbing, now at 55%.
• Despite a career low usage rate, O’Neale is averaging career highs in points, steals, rebounds, and win shares per 48. His efficiency has taken a massive leap, true shooting up from 58% to 67%. He’s shooting four 3s a game at a blistering 46% (ranked 9th in the league among those that have taken at least 30). As Andy Bailey noted, no one in NBA history has matched 38.7 3P% and a +2.0 defensive box plus/minus.
• Favors is averaging a ho-hum 6/6/1, but he’s only playing 16 mpg. Adjust for per 36, and most his numbers are on par from his last few seasons. Of note, his block rate is second best in career and and turnover rate is a career best. Favors’ impact goes beyond the numbers. His knowledge of Snyder’s system and play style allow the Jazz to play the same for 48 minutes. He’s also a fantastic locker room presence and beloved by the organization from top to bottom.

Award watch

One reason this season has been fun is that the Jazz have contenders for multiple end of season awards.

All-Star

Gobert and Mitchell seem likely to repeat as All-Stars. They’re not quite locks, but most media members have them pencilled in as reserves or wildcards. The more intriguing question at this point is: can the Jazz have three All-Stars? We may be getting greedy at this point, and Dan Clayton wrote about Mike Conley’s chances of finally making the All-Star team. It feels like the Jazz will need to be the number one seed for this to be realistic. Another thing to watch is if an actual All-Star game takes place and there are injury replacements. The league appoints those replacements and they often are given to players who were regarded as snubs in the voting process. Conley’s reputation across the league could give him an edge there.

Regardless, even two All-Stars is a great reward for a Jazz team that has finally started a season hot.

All-NBA

It’s still early to evaluate this award, but it’s especially relevant to Mitchell, who stands to earn an extra $6 million a year if he makes the team this year. This will have domino effects on the chances of re-signing Conley or adding other pieces in coming years. Right now, the first four guard spots are likely to be some combination of Damian Lillard, Steph Curry, James Harden and Luka Doncic (assuming LeBron James stays in the forward spot and isn’t considered a guard). Mitchell’s competition includes Bradley Beal (keep on eye on a trade, because it’s hard to make All-NBA with the worst record, even while averaging close to 35 points per game), Jaylen Brown, Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, and the Suns’ guards. It may come down to seeding, and right now Mitchell has a decent shot.

Meanwhile, Gobert is on track to make the third team, behind MVP candidates Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. Unless Anthony Davis gets votes at center, it’s Rudy’s spot to lose.

Conley is a fringe candidate who may benefit from the voters being a mix of sportswriters and broadcasters.

Sixth Man of the Year

We’ve already written about Clarkson’s case for 6MOY, and Vegas still agrees: Clarkson currently has -155 odds to win the award, with Chris Boucher in second at +700. So Clarkson is the clear favorite. He’s currently averaging 17.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.8 assists. While he’s trending slightly below the 50/40/90 club, he’s still at a very efficient 60% true shooting percentage.

Defensive Player of the Year

Vegas has Rudy Gobert with the second highest odds to win Defensive Player of the Year at +300, just a hair behind Anthony Davis at +200. Myles Turner is also +300, and no one else is very close. Both the metrics and eye test show that Gobert is having a dominating defensive season:

Davis has not yet won the award, and narrative tends to hold a lot of sway. The Lakers are currently the #1 defensive team per Cleaning the Glass, the Jazz will likely need to steal that position to give Gobert a solid edge.

Coach of the Year

This is a funny award, as there is no clear criteria so sometimes it goes to the coach of an overachieving team and other times to the best team. Despite doing a masterful job of amping up Utah’s offensive system, unlocking Clarkson’s game, and reinstating a dominant defense, Snyder is only 16th in Vegas odds for winning Coach of the Year. But if Utah maintains a top one or two seed throughout the season, this could change. He earned Coach of the Month honors for January.

Areas of concern

It’s been about a good a first quarter as the Jazz could’ve asked for. The team has been healthy. They have the best record in the league and the best record against teams above .500. There’s not a ton to complain about. But here are a few nits to pick:

Free throw shooting

Salt City Hoops’ David Smith summarized Utah’s recent free throw shooting:

Recent Jazz FT shooting:

vs. NOP: 96%
vs. GSW: 77%
vs. NYK: 86%
vs. DAL: 76%
vs. DAL: 92%
vs. DEN: 85%

UTA jumped from 70% to 75% on the season, 22nd in NBA. Steps in the right direction.

— David J. Smith (@davidjsmith1232) February 1, 2021

While on the rise, it’s still an area of concern, and mostly driven by Rudy Gobert, who is only shooting 53%. Conley and Bogdanovic are also shooting a little below average. Meanwhile Clarkson’s 97% is likely to decline.

Switching defense

Historically, switching defenses have been Utah’s Achilles heel. Luckily, two of the best switching teams in the Warriors and Rockets have different personnel and reduced talent levels this season. The Jazz have yet to see much defensive switching, and it will be worth keeping an eye on how this new offense responds. This season Boston and the Raptors have used a lot of switching while playing without anchors at the center position. The Kings, Blazers, and Heat have also switched with mixed success. This could end up being an important adjustment in a playoff series, but a team really needs the right players to do it successfully.

Elite guards

The Jazz have also struggled to contain elite guards, like Damian Lillard, Steph Curry, and James Harden. But who doesn’t? The West is loaded with elite guards. The larger issue is when players like Austin Rivers or last year’s Derrick Rose cook the Jazz. This offseason Utah could’ve chased a guard stopper like Kris Dunn, but instead elected to bring back Favors. So far it’s paid off, but the Jazz are still susceptible to quick guards that O’Neale isn’t best equipped to handle. Luckily Conley has proven to be a solid defender at the point of attack this season. Shaq Harrison has the tools to be a defensive specialist, but Snyder has been hesitant to use him outside of garbage time. Ideally Mitchell is able to make a defensive jump.

Nikola Jokic

Okay, I’m not sure any team or player can stop Jokic at this point. The Jazz are very familiar with him after last year’s playoff series. But Jokic didn’t have his usual All-NBA game against Utah over the weekend — he had an eviscerating, MVP-statement game. It’s something they may need to figure out, because even if the Jazz’s best case scenario lands them the one seed to avoid playing both LA teams in the first two rounds, they would likely matchup with Denver in the second round as a fourth or fifth seed. Denver has assumed the position as Utah’s primary rival, and they are likely to lock horns over the next few seasons.

Looking forward

February slate of games

This month the Jazz will test their mettle, with games against Celtics, Bucks, Lakers, and twice against the Clippers and Sixers. Their schedule thus far has not been soft (14th ranked strength of schedule), but this next stretch is an opportunity to measure themselves as a true contender.

The LA teams

Speaking of true contendership, most analysts have the LA Lakers and Clippers in a tier above other competing teams like the Nets, Bucks, Nuggets, and Jazz. The Jazz have beat the Clippers once already, and winning at least one of these next two games could prove critical in end-of-season seeding as both teams are jockeying for position in the standings.

Then we have the Lakers. No game is more anticipated, not just because of LA’s star power, but because the champions are the measuring stick for the Jazz right now. Last season the Lakers swept the Jazz, winning 95–86, 121–96, and 116–108. Lindsey has since spoken about how the Jazz added Favors specifically to give them options to match up against the Lakers.

The Lakers won the championship, and then retooled by adding Dennis Schroder, Marc Gasol, Wesley Matthews, and Montrezl Harrell. Eventually the path to playoff success will go through LeBron — who has not lost a playoff series against a conference opponent in the last decade. The Jazz have hit a superstar wall in the playoffs throughout their history: MJ’s Bulls, Tim Duncan’s Spurs, Kobe Bryant’s Lakers, Steph’s Warriors, and Harden’s Rockets. This is the new team to beat.

The matchup will be fascinating and we’ll cover it in detail as we get closer to the game.

Ebbs and flows and regression to the mean

In a near perfect first quarter, almost all the Jazz players have played well. Donovan has had some streaky performances, but that’s to be expected with a younger, high-usage player — and he’s already above his career efficiency numbers. Bogdanovic has been the biggest slumper, which is easily explained by injury recovery and conditioning; but he’s starting to heat upup, now at 15 ppg and 40% from three.

It’s safe to expect that other players may experience slumps during the next quarter.

From a team perspective, the 40.6% from three accuracy may come down, but it’s not an entirely outlandish number, especially given how many are open shots.

We may see the team’s free throw percentage (24th in the league) and rim finishing (22nd in the league) go up.

Is this the best team since Stockton and Malone?

We’ll monitor this question as the season progresses. The main metrics we’ll track are win percentage, offense and defense rankings, roster talent, and playoff success. The win percentage to beat is 0.659 from the 07–08 Jazz. At 0.762, this year’s team is well above that. The same Boozer/Williams-led team ended with the 1st ranked offense, and 10th ranked defense. Per Cleaning the Glass, this year’s Jazz have the 4th best offense and 2nd best defense.

On paper this is the most talented Jazz roster, but awards will lend some validation. Ultimately playoff success is the most important factor, and the Western Conference Finals is the hope and expectation. At the quarter mark of the season, the Jazz are well on pace.