Salt City Seven: What the Jazz Need From New Bench Bigs, Spreading Happiness & More

Gay’s Jazz tenure is off to a nice start. (via ESPN)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

For the first time all season — and you might want to knock on wood as you read this — the Utah Jazz are at full strength. Rudy Gay finally seeing action gives fans a chance to see the full product the club’s brass envisioned when they spent their biggest offseason asset to bring him. There were other moves, of course, but his signing and the addition of Hassan Whiteside at backup center represent the Jazz’s attempt to add something new to the back of the rotation and complement their elite main seven guys.

At +11.2 per 100 possessions, Utah’s starting five was the second-best high-minute combo in the league last year¹, and their two main reserves battled each other for Sixth Man of the Year honors. So there really wasn’t a whole lot the Jazz need to do to improve the front seven in their rotation.

Instead, they went and looked for very specific things from the eighth and ninth man roles in an attempt to give themselves more size, flexibility and defense.

Gay and Whiteside represent the bulk of that investment. Sure, they also traded for Eric Paschall, who has had some nice moments. And the hope is that over time rookie Jared Butler is able to soak up some guard minutes when someone above him on the depth chart sits or struggles. (Right now, Trent Forrest is getting those opportunities instead, as Butler has struggled.) But they brought Gay and Whiteside to Salt Lake to play fairly important roles — and to do specific things to complement one of the best 7-man cores in basketball.

They don’t need the world from either guy. For those investments to pay off, they simply need each guy to contribute in specific ways.

What the Jazz need from Whiteside

It’s tough to back up an All-NBA center. The expectations are going to be high, and it’s going to be hard to look great by comparison. But for the Whiteside signing to be a success, they mostly just need three things from the veteran:

• Decent interior defense. Whiteside is never going to replicate what Rudy Gobert does defensively, and that’s OK. They simply need him to protect the paint well enough in drop-big settings. They won’t ask him to switch or guard in space as much as the Jazz may need Gobert to do in certain situations, and if they run into matchups where they have to abandon their core defense completely, they now have other guys for that. If he can protect the paint solidly as an anchor big in Utah’s core schemes, that should be enough.
• Rebounding. You don’t sustain a #1 defense without being able to close possessions, and rebounding was a strength for the Jazz last season. Whoever took that role was going to need to be able to sustain that advantage.
• Rim finishing. If there’s anything that the Jazz learned with the Ed Davis and Tony Bradley experiments — and even to a degree on the nights when Derrick Favors looked less springy — it’s that their prolific offense functions much better when all those shooters are orbiting around a rolling big who actually demands the opposing defense’s attention.

If the Jazz get those three things from Whiteside fairly consistently, they will be hard to beat. So how’s it going?

It’s early, but so far opponents are shooting 52.9% at the rim with Whiteside nearby. That’s not in the range of Gobert’s otherworldly 44.0% mark, but since league average on rim attempts is just under 64%, it’s clear that Whiteside is having an impact.

Gobert and Whiteside rank first and fourth, respectively in overall rebound percentage, and the Jazz have collectively retained their #1 ranking in overall rebounds percentage.

And on offense, Whiteside’s percentage in the restricted area (71.2%) rivals Gobert’s (79.0%), plus he adds a bit more touch further out. He’s shooting 40.7% in the paint non-restricted. Some roll-man finishes get classified as cuts on the league’s tracking stats, but if you combine his “roll man” numbers with the “cut” numbers, he’s averaging 1.23 points per play he finishes with a shot attempt or turnover. That figure is above average, and means that defenses will have to respond to him on the roll — good news for Utah’s shooters. (Favors was 1.27 on those two play types combined last year, so Whiteside is nearly replicating Favors’ role offensively while rebounding and defending somewhat better.)

Broadly speaking, they’re getting what they need from Whiteside. And it shows: they’re beating teams by 14.8 points per 100 when the journeyman center plays. That number may or may not hold up, but even if he can just continue to do those three specific things, his minutes should be a net positive because of the others around him.

What the Jazz need from Gay

Even before the Jazz signed Gay, this writer had the 15-year pro on the list of targets precisely because he filled specific needs for Utah in that backup 4 role:

• Defense. If you haven’t heard me shouting it from my rooftop, I’ll say it again here: the Jazz did not lose to the Clippers because of Gobert’s supposed smallball deficiencies, but because too few perimeter defenders could stay in front of the ball. Gay, even in his mid 30s, rates above average on play types that involve guarding a guy with the ball in his hands. The Jazz signed him at least in part to add another plus on-ball defender on the perimeter.
• Size on the wing. It’s related to the first bullet, but Gay’s 6’8″ size makes him more likely to be able to disrupt an opponent, and also gives the Jazz some lineups flexibility they didn’t have when that role was manned by the somewhat underrated Georges Niang.
• Shooting. That said, they also need their wings and forwards to be able to knock down open shots, at minimum.

So how is Gay looking so far? 

On the shooting front, he looks great. At 6-of-9 overall from deep, Gay has shown an ability to shoot in a lot of different scenarios: pick-and-pop, off the catch, sizing up the defender on size mismatch, pulling up in transition. The percentage (66.7%) won’t hold up, but the strong start is a pretty good indication that the stroke and the confidence are both still there.

Stats won’t tell us much about his defensive impact thus far. Sure, he has held opponents to 33% overall shooting as the nearest defender, but tracking stats like that just don’t mean much, especially two games in. Instead, let’s trust the film for a glimpse at how the veteran is actually moving and leveraging his length.

There have already been plays where it’s clear that his size and length have disrupted an opponent. Like twice on this play:

The first deflection is the most obvious way his 7-foot-3 wingspan impacts the play. But then after a couple of off-ball switches, Gay’s in the paint and notices that Jordan Clarkson got beat. He steps in front to take away the drive while also making the angle on the pass really tough. (And credit to Clarkson for sticking with the play to put additional pressure on the pass.)

His size has manifested itself in other ways, too: from an ability to get his shot off over smaller defenders, to a really nice start rebounding the ball. That’s a component the Jazz haven’t really had. Mostly, the Jazz have just felt longer when he has been on the floor. That’s not a small thing.

Defensively, he has looked a little rusty on some lateral movements: 

He gets blown by pretty easily on both plays there (although on the first one it winds up not mattering because he fights his way back into the play). At 35, it’s probably not fair to expect him to be a brick wall as an on-ball defender, but one would hope those matador moments are just the product of having been on the shelf for a bit. He was in the 84th percentile last year at guarding iso ball handlers who used the possession, and 72nd percentile guarding the ball in pick-and-roll, and you don’t get those numbers without being able to move your feet a little better than what you saw in those two clips. Again, give him time.

Eventually, they might also have him do more creating in certain situations. He can do that, especially when he starts to get the wheels greased a little more. He never really gets into second gear on this drive, but it doesn’t matter because he’s able to body right through Chris Boucher and finish unconventionally:

That’s just a professional scorer.

He’ll do other stuff: he’s a decent passer for a wing, he can guard physical guys, and he’s generally just a very smart basketball player. But as long as he can influence the game as a shooter, a big body, and a plus defender, he’ll give the Jazz exactly what they need.

Gay and Whiteside represent Utah’s best opportunities to improve upon last year’s rotation, and they don’t even need to play out of their minds to do that. So far, both guys are giving the Jazz the specific things that help the club unlock some positive things on both ends. 

In their own words

“I’m happy when you’re happy.”

-Mike Conley, via a TNT “Audio Assist” segment

This entertaining moment of in-game audio on TNT actually might shed some light on Conley and the Jazz putting more focus on attempting to share the basketball — and spread happiness — more often.

They’ve had nine straight games with 20 or more assists, a threshold they only crossed twice in their first seven outings. But this new altruistic mood stretches beyond assist numbers, which if we’re honest are just as much a measure of shot-making as anything. Their total raw passing numbers — which were weirdly low to start the season, are trending back toward league average, and they actually rank eighth in the league in potential assists over the last five games.

Conley himself is the perfect poster child for this generosity, averaging 7.0 assists in his last eight games. He had another seven that night, which caused his coach to recognize his “unselfish” approach after the game.

“Frankly, Mike Conley dominated the game,” Quin Snyder said postgame. “It says a lot about who he is as a player when he takes four shots and dominates the game.” 

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

122.7

What a week for the Jazz offense, which finally exploded with a 42.3% mark from 3-point land. That helped their overall offense vault to 122.7, the highest in the league since November 15. In all three games since last Monday, their overall offense has been in the top 8% of all games played. (The defense has been solid, too, the result of one really strong defensive outing against Philly’s skeleton crew, followed by two games right around league average against the Raptors and Kings.)

75%

Royce O’Neale is quietly having a terrific shooting year inside the arc. His 75% on 2-point shots is tied for fourth in the league, and the three above him haven’t played anywhere close to his same minutes. His 83% shooting at the rim is part of his career-best shooting year. Joe Ingles is also shooting 88% at the rim, but as our Zarin Ficklin pointed out in the first ever Tribune-SCH crossover piece, he barely shoots there.

+13.6

Gay’s return gives Utah more ways to construct winning lineups. Any time they have had any five of their main 10 guys on the court, they have outscored opponents by 13.6 points per 100 possessions. The flipside of that is that as soon as even one member of their deep bench brigade steps into the lineup, those lineups drop to a combined -3.6 outside of garbage time. At some point, the hope is that someone from Utah’s 11th through 16th roster spots will make Snyder feel a bit more comfortable about playing them in meaningful situations.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

Every week we look at some of the many predictive systems and what they say about the Jazz’s macro quality and chances of a deep postseason run. But what we haven’t done as much is highlight the model that started right from inside the Jazz fan community.

Tru-Elo is Jazz fan and stat genius Riley Gisseman’s own attempt at quantifying team quality and predicting the basketball futures of all 30 teams. Riley tried to build a system that would start with the typical ELO factors like win/loss margin, location and rest, but then weigh other important factors, too. These include adjusting for injuries, recent play, garbage time and shot luck (i.e. a team shooting much better or worse than expected on threes or free throws).

His latest Tru-Elo update gives the Jazz a slightly better cushion on the No. 1 seed than FiveThirtyEight’s player-based model, and has them behind the balanced Clippers in terms of overall strength.

Riley Gisseman’s Tru-Elo (click to expand)

His math believes less in the Warriors and more in the Sixers, which tells you that their respective records of 15-2 and 9-8 might have more to do with schedule strength and shot luck than most people realize.

But this system is still bullish on the Jazz. They have the best “today” rating in the league. Only two teams have a better overall Tru-Elo, and in both cases the jump is based on a player that may or may not be reincorporated into his current team’s reality in 2021-22: the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard and Philly’s Ben Simmons.

Based on players available today, the Jazz look in this model like the cream of the Western Conference crop, and that’s with a defense that’s still congealing.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

A perfect week for the Jazz since our last SC7 means we have three imaginary Wilsons to give out.

Jazz 120, Sixers 85: Bojan Bogdanovic. Gobert was obviously dominant in the game that, because of the Sixers’ makeshift rotation, actually centered quite a bit on his and the Jazz’s ability to handle a 5-out team. The big fella had 15 and 17, four blocks, and was as tremendous defending in space as he was inside the paint. But it’s hard to look past 27 points on 12 shots, to say nothing of Bogey’s six boards, two assists and team-best +25. Bogey being at that level unlocks something special for the Jazz, more so when he’s decent defensively. (The Sixers shot 6-for-14 with Bogey defending, and didn’t get off a single three with Bogey as the nearest defender.) So we’ll give him the nod since Gobert gets featured here quite a lot. The next runner-up would have been Clarkson, who had a slump-busting 20 and also grabbed seven rebounds.

Jazz 119, Raptors 103: Rudy Gay. Gobert’s (14 & 11, 7/7 shooting, +31) ability to guard in space was huge in defining the terms of engagement for this game, and you already heard Snyder say that he felt like Conley (7 assists, +33) was dominant against the Raps. But let’s not overthink this one: Gay was the story of the night, while also earning team-high honors (tied with Mitchell) on nearly perfect shooting. In normal circumstances I would argue that awarding a guy for his performance in 18.5 minutes kind of breaks my rule about this not being a “nice spark” award, but because this turned into a blowout, nobody topped 30 minutes. That makes it easier to justify recognizing Gay’s 20-point, 5-rebound debut since that’s what we’ll all remember about that game in a month anyway.

Jazz 120, Kings 85: Donovan Mitchell. I mean, let’s be honest: the Golden 1 Center cleaning crew deserves the game ball, a week paid vacation, and a huge raise. But in a contest we’ll all remember as the puke game, I still think it’s worth recognizing some in-game contributions with the fake game ball. The Twitter consensus said Mitchell, and it’s hard to argue: 26-5-5, and a big second half precisely as the Jazz pulled away. Gobert was the runner-up with his third 20-10 game of the season 921 and 14), and Conley had kind of the inverse of Mitchell’s game: a red hot start and a discreet second half. 

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

Weirdly enough, this will be the Jazz’s first Monday game of the season… 

Monday 11/22, Jazz vs. Grizzlies: Utah’s 2021 first-round foe is having a rough stretch, with four losses in their last six tried, including a 43-point loss on Saturday night in Minnesota. They bring the league’s worst defense — on an absolutely basis AND excluding garbage time — and their 13th-ranked offense just isn’t good enough to offset that alarming level of notgoodness on the other end. That’s especially true with Kyle Anderson, Desmond Bane and De’Anthony Melton are all shooting under 32% for the last 6 games. Dillon Brooks is getting incorporated back into Memphis’ lineup, and he’s averaging 19 a game on 44% 3-point shooting.

Wednesday 11/24, Jazz @ Thunder: The inverse of Memphis, OKC had a middling defense but just can’t score the ball (2nd worst offense). With scarcely anybody else for defenses to focus on, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has backslid both in terms of scoring and overall efficiency. His shooting is down from all over the court, and while his FT percentage is holding, he is getting there far less than last year. Even beyond his struggles, they’re the worst shooting team at the rim and the second worst 3-point outfit. Defensively they’re a bit more sound, except that they give up a lot of threes and a high percentage — good news for the visiting Jazz. Former Jazzman Favors is a part-time starter for the veteran-starved Thunder.

Friday 11/26, Jazz vs. Pelicans: The preview & preparation for this one change greatly based on the outcome of Zion Williamson’s next reevaluation, which is coming this Wednesday. The young star has been cleared for 1-on-1 activities, and could get the green light to become a full participant in team workouts. Even if the news is good on Wednesday, it’s unlikely they’ll rush him back for a pair of Jazz-Pels games, or if New Orleans will even have a practice in the middle of this 4-in-6 stretch to work him back in. So it’s more likely the Jazz will face the same version of the Pels that is 3-15 without Zion. Devonte’ Graham (15.3 ppg) is also day-to-day with a foot injury. 

Saturday 11/27, Jazz vs. Pelicans: Assuming no Williamson for either game, it’s still worth mentioning that Gobert is 12-12 in his career against Jonas Valanciunas, a player who has for some reason always been able to test the Stifle Tower. Brandon Ingram is averaging 22.5 this season, but he also missed a chunk of games, and NOP went 0-7 without him. But the real problem is on the defensive end, where New Orleans ranks 29th. They allow 68% in the restricted area (third worst) and 38% from three (fifth worst), and in particular they have the worst halfcourt defense in basketball. 

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

I don’t know if “fun” is precisely the right word, but we all know what the funniest scenario of the Jazz’s week was, right?

If for no other reason than that it provided us with this:

pic.twitter.com/h3vmkRryJg

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) November 21, 2021

(And also this and this and this and this. The moment just kept on giving.)

That’s a wrap on one more week in Jazzland.