Competition Watch: What We’ve Learned So Far About a Potential Jazz-Clips Matchup

Rudy Gobert and Kawhi Leonard lead elite teams that may face off this spring in a playoff series. (via Clippers.com)

After the best start in franchise history, the Utah Jazz limped into the All-Star break and overall have split their last 10 games. Now they can enjoy one of the easiest remaining schedules by average opponent record over the second half of the season. They’ll tackle that schedule with three All-Stars and an All-Star coach. That coach is a serious Coach of the Year candidate, and they also employ the frontrunners for Defensive Player of the Year, and Sixth Man of the Year. They have the best record in the NBA, and the second best offense and defense with garbage time removed. So life is good in Jazzland.

Looming over of all of this success is the question of whether the Jazz can beat either LA team in a seven game series. On one hand, Jazz fans should enjoy the present no matter what happens in the post season. But the Jazz will likely face one or both LA teams to reach their ultimate ambitions.

They blew the Lakers out in late February in a game Anthony Davis missed, and those two teams will square off two more times in April. Since they’ve already finished their matchups with the Clippers, winning two of three, let’s start there and see what we’ve learned (and what we haven’t) about a potential Jazz-Clippers matchup should the two teams cross paths in the playoffs.

What we’ve learned

The Jazz and Clippers have played each other three times:

• Jan 1: Jazz win 106–100
• Feb 17: Jazz win 114–96 (no Kawhi Leonard or Paul George)
• Feb 19: Clippers win 116–112

Because the Jazz haven’t played the Lakers at full strength, the Clippers have proven the biggest threat to the Jazz thus far. The second game of the season series isn’t very helpful from a predictive standpoint since the Clippers’ stars sat, but the combined score of the other two games is 118–116. In other words, these two teams are evenly matched, and a playoff series projects to be a tight one that could be swung by marginal factors:

Home-court advantage

One of those margins could be homecourt advantage, and so the tie-breaking win matters, even if it was because Leonard and George didn’t play. A lot can happen, but right now the Jazz have a path to keep the top seed and the Clippers are in line to finish 2nd through 4th. If that holds out, the Clippers will face a really tough second round matchup. If a Western Conference Finals matchup between the Clippers and Jazz is destined to happen, the ideal situation would be for the two LA teams to play each other in the 2nd round. Now it’s looking like the Lakers or Clippers could fall to the 4/5 bracket as the Suns own the second best record. It’s a bit early to read too much into seeding, but keep an eye on Dan Clayton’s playoff picture graphics.

Whatever happens, homecourt advantage will help, especially if fan attendance continues to increase and a series comes down to game seven.

Midrange shots

In the two close games, the Clippers’ midrange frequency was in the 89th and 91st percentile of all NBA games played this year. The Jazz defense forces midrange shots, but the Clippers happen to be comfortable taking them (5th in frequency and 9th in accuracy). The Clippers lost when they shot them poorly (31%) and won when they shot them well (50%). Do the Jazz still want the Clippers to take a lot midrange shots? And will the Clippers live or die by the midrange in a tight playoff game? That’s somewhat been the story in the regular season.

Small-ball lineup

Ty Lue tipped his hand in the February 19 win, deploying a small-ball lineup with Marcus Morris at center in the 4th quarter. Whether it was the lineup, Morris’ hot shooting, or Kawhi’s offensive rebounds that deserve credit for the win is up for debate. But the template for countering Utah could be playing five shooters to pull Rudy Gobert away from the paint (that may sound simple and obvious, but few teams have the personnel to effectively do this). We didn’t get a chance to see Utah’s counter. Gobert isn’t going to beat smaller defenders with post-moves, but he can win those matchups with lobs and offensive rebounds — that Leonard stole a pair of crunch-time boards buried Utah’s hope of a comeback. If LA relies on this lineup more in the playoffs, it means fewer rotational minutes for Ivica Zubac and Serge Ibaka, both solid players. If this is a Clippers trump card, Quin Snyder will now have time to prepare for it.

Unanswered questions

Can the Jazz overcome Leonard and George in the playoffs?

Much has been said about how the Jazz could use another perimeter defender to help Royce O’Neale. The pair of Clipper stars may be the primary reason. But in regular season matchups, neither player scored 30 points or more. Perimeter containment did not appear to be a concerning issue. That said, playoffs are a different animal. Historically Leonard elevates his game in the postseason, while Paul George has been more mercurial.

Obviously, the Clippers are going to play their stars more in the playoffs. Let’s compare their regular season numbers with last year’s playoff numbers:

So we can expect Kawhi to play an extra 5–7 minutes while maintaining his efficiency and impact. You can count on him to be a very focused defender. This is all no surprise.

George is also likely to play an extra 5–7 minutes, but his playoff impact has been much more varied. Last year his playoff efficiency was bad, at 53% true shooting. But his career playoff true shooting is not much better, at 55%. A bad George is still dangerous, and we could see a more motivated player this post season. But historically he does not instill the same fear that his teammate does.

Can the Jazz stop midrange shots?

Assuming the Jazz want to stop the midrange shots, how will they do so? The defensive scheme is based around dropping Gobert and running 3-point shooters off the line. The Clippers are the best 3-point shooting team in the league, so the Jazz can’t slack off on perimeter defense. Perhaps if Gobert is drawn outside of the paint by Morris or Ibaka, the Jazz will be forced to cede more inside shots anyway. How Utah adjusts their defense (or doesn’t adjust) will be fascinating, and we’ve seen Snyder be very creative in the playoffs before (e.g. guarding James Harden from behind to take away his lethal stepback three).

Will roster adjustments change the equation?

The Jazz just signed Ersan Ilyasova. Even if he earns minutes away from the likes of current ninth man Georges Niang, he doesn’t really change how the Jazz play schematically. It’s unlikely any player added through the buyout market will crack the rotation. At this point added players are more likely injury insurance. If there is a player that would help against the Clippers, it could be perimeter defender. But there are few players out there who can legitimately slow down George or Leonard. Fans have wondered if Trevor Ariza has enough in the tank, but he was traded to Miami on Wednesday to help the Heat with their own battle for playoff seeding.

Perhaps the biggest needle-mover would be Otto Porter, an elite role player who can guard multiple perimeter positions and knock down 3s. But Porter has been injured, and every contender will covet him — if he’s even bought out.

Unfortunately the Clippers are bigger destination, and may have first dibs on the more impactful buyout players. To wit, Nicolas Batum ultimately chose to join the Clippers after his offseason buyout, even though we recently learned that his countryman Gobert made a push to recruit him.

What are the weak links?

Luckily, Utah’s 9-man rotation is already rock solid. LA is also one of the most talented teams in the league, with a fantastic bench. There may be a few weak points however.

For the Clippers, Lou Williams had a really rocky start to the season. He’s since bounced back, but he may be such a defensive liability come playoff time that he can’t be played much. I expect the Jazz to target him repeatedly in the playoffs. Patrick Beverley has the reputation as a great defender, but can be beat in space. Batum has a been a revelation, but will his age show more in the playoffs? It’s unclear of Luke Kennard, Reggie Jackson, or someone else will earn the 9th spot in the playoffs — it may not matter too much. The Clippers depth is solid, but may prove rickety in some aspects during the playoffs. Count on Snyder to probe for weaknesses.

On Utah’s end, keep an eye on Bojan Bogdanovic’s perimeter defense. He’s been largely fine this season, and Snyder does a good job of hiding him on the defensive end. But opposing offenses have targeted Bogey more than usual over the last several games. In the playoffs, he and Niang will certainly need to be up to the challenge if teams decide to go at them. Fortunately Niang, at least has shown great improvement in those situations.

The matchup

These teams are close enough that a playoff series will likely come down to health, coaching adjustments, and star play. So far Utah has had great health, while the Clippers stars have been banged up. If a star goes down, Utah becomes heavily favored. Quin is one of the best X-and-O coaches in the league, and finally has a roster to utilize his ideal systems.

The Clippers have the clear superstar advantage. Kawhi may be the player you most want on your team in the playoffs outside of LeBron James. But the star advantage may not be that lopsided. It’s unclear what version of Paul George we’ll see. The narrative on Rudy is that he’s not as impactful in the playoffs. Last year he averaged 16.9 points, 11.4 rebounds, on 63.8 TS%. Yes, Jokic had a great series, but Rudy’s defense affects opposing systems more so than individual center matchups. And then there’s Donovan Mitchell, who averaged 36.3 points, 5 rebounds, 4.9 assists, with 69.6 TS%. Kawhi has proven he can elevate his game in the postseason, but Donovan has too.

While this Jazz team is no spring chicken when it comes to playoff experience, the Clippers are clearly more seasoned. Their top-9 rotation players have a combined 575 playoff games under their belts, compared to Utah’s 272.

They both have depth, great coaching, and incredible stars. A playoff series between the two could end up being the marquee matchup of the post season.