Salt City Seven: Playoff Race Reset, Clutch Woes, All-Star Weekend & More

March 8th, 2021 | by Dan Clayton

Mitchell had a high-flying All-Star performance after a busy (and at times controversial) week. (via Utah Jazz Twitter)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

That’s right, we’re diving right into the playoff picture this week. That’s because it’s time to dust off our trusty Western Conference playoff race graphic.

After each season’s All-Star break, we break this out as a way of keeping track of the highly competitive WC race. We’ll update this every week in this space for the rest of the season, and as the playoffs get closer, I generally can’t resist the temptation to sneak an extra update or two each week over on my Twitter account.

But for now, let’s take a look at what it says about Utah’s place in the Western power structure with 36 games to go.

The playoff race coming out of All-Star weekend.

The Jazz are absolutely in the pole position right now. They have a 2.5-game hold on the No. 1 spot, and they have the easiest remaining schedule of any team with a realistic shot at the top seed.

If there’s any room for caution, it’s the fact that their remaining games against the teams most relevant to the race for No. 1 are all road games — two left in Phoenix, two left against the Lakers in L.A. Aside from that, though, they’re in great shape. Those four are their only remaining road games against top 10 teams. Nobody with a shot at No. 1 has more than Utah’s 14 remaining games against bottom-10 teams, eight of which will be played at home.

A couple other quick observations:

  • Phoenix is red hot right now, but has 14 games left against elite teams, eight of which are away dates.
  • The Lakers are below .500 against the current eight playoff teams in the West. They don’t yet have a win (0-3) against the other teams in the top 4 with them, although health is certainly a part of that.
  • Don’t forget that LAC is still elite (18-6) when both stars play, and their remaining schedule is easier than average.
  • Ten of Portland’s remaining 13 games against teams currently ranked 1-8 in the West are home games.
  • Denver has a home-heavy schedule overall and an easy opponent slate, but all remaining games against teams above them in the WC standings are roadies.
  • The play-in race should be really fun. GSW and Dallas have the easiest average opponent of those four teams, while the Spurs’ schedule from here out is brutal.
  • Right now there’s a 3-game gap between Memphis and anybody else who wants to crash the play-in.

This should be fun.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Utah was 0-2 last week before adjourning for the All-Star break, and overall has lost three of four.

All three losses were among Utah’s worst halfcourt defensive performances of the year. But a bigger worry might be Utah closing out tight contests. They have suddenly lost their last four games that were within five points at any point in the last five minutes, including both of last week’s losses.

Against the Pelicans, they probably had no business being that close to begin with, since they trailed by as many as 17 during a defensively dismal third quarter. But they lead Philly by a 2-possession margin inside the final 2:00. And yes, some 50-50 calls played a part in that collapse1, but so did the fact that Utah shot just 5-for-19 on shots that met the “clutch” criteria down the stretch of that game and in OT.

It’s not a red alert yet; Utah’s played so few clutch minutes because of how regularly they have trounced opponents. They have been involved in a league-leading 27 games decided by 10 points or more, and they are a remarkable 23-4 in those contests. The result of that is that they have played just 35 total minutes matching clutch criteria, the fewest in the league. 

But it’s something to keep an eye on. The Jazz are too good overall (+8.5 NetRtg, #1 in the league) to be as bad as they have been in the clutch (-6.9 NetRtg, #22). And of particular concern is the role that their main offensive creator has had in those struggles.

Donovan Mitchell is having a career-best season on many fronts, even more so if you look at per-36 numbers, since once again, the Jazz have had a lot of nights where starters like Mitchell have had the luxury of unlacing their shoes a little earlier. He’s been brilliant in overall terms. But his *clutch* true shooting is down to a (frankly unacceptable) 38.1%. And since he uses 43% of his team’s possessions in those situations, the Jazz seem to go as he goes when the game gets tight. Wednesday’s loss was a good example of that, as the All-Star guard missed his last nine shots on the heels of a brilliant fourth-quarter stretch that put the Jazz up 114-109 late in regulation.

He has been known to be loose with the ball in past clutch situations, but this year his turnover ratio in close games (8.2%) is actually fairly decent. It’s mostly about shot-making. He’s 3-for-15 on clutch threes this season, and especially on righty drives, teams are a lot more insistent about not letting him turn the corner. Instead of dictating the contact and getting where he wants to go, he often lets the defender bump him first, then flies off his path to accentuate the contact, hoping for a whistle. Sometimes he gets the call, but just as often he winds up scooping the ball across his body with his momentum heading away from the hoop.

In the long run, these 35 minutes are probably mostly noise. The Jazz will be fine. Mitchell will be fine. Overall efficiency margin remains a much more stable predictor of future success, and in that sense the Jazz appear to be in great shape, despite missing a few extra shots in those high-variance situations late in close games.

At the same time, playoff basketball more closely resembles the pressure cooker of clutch games, where every possession matters and teams win by unlocking another level with precision execution and tightening D. So while it’s way too early to worry about Utah’s scant 35 minutes of clutch action, it’s something to watch as the club moves into the second half of the season.

In their own words.

“I don’t want to be rude, but I really don’t care… People have been talking s*** about me for a while…

“I don’t really think this affected us and we don’t really play this game to seek the approval of him (LeBron James), or anyone else.”

-Mitchell, on comments made by James about selecting Utah players last for All-Star teams

For better or worse, it’s impossible to tell the story of the week in Jazzland without mentioning the drama, perceived slights and controversies. First, a physical game in Philadelphia led to enough questionable calls and missed calls that Mitchell and fellow All-Star Rudy Gobert both took fines to make their case that the Jazz are officiated differently, perhaps because of market size. The consternation even inspired some local fans to pay for an electronic billboard ad demanding that the NBA “Recall the refs.” Umm. OK.

On Thursday, Jazz fans got to double down on the persecution complex when All-Star captains James and Kevin Durant left Mitchell and Gobert until the end of the All-Star draft. (Mike Conley hadn’t been named as a replacement All-Star yet.) When razzed by the TNT crew, James offered up the explanation — if you can call it that — that he never played video games even with the 1990s Jazz that were led by two Hall of Famers.

Look, the comments were a bummer. The Jazz are the best team in the league and a really interesting part of the overall product right now. And here’s the de facto spiritual leader of the league’s 450 players openly stating that stars like Mitchell and Gobert are less worthy of his esteem by the simple fact of where they play basketball. All while staring up at them in the standings, which adds a special level of dissonance (and arrogance) to the commentary. Was he playing mind games, hoping to knock down an emerging conference rival a peg with some clever psychology? Or does he really believe that players who reside in Utah are inherently worth less than those who have different zip codes? Either way, it was a bad look for LeBron, and a bad look for the NBA.

Gobert responded to the slight by donning an NBA Jam T-shirt featuring Jazz legends Karl Malone and John Stockton, a hilariously passive-aggressive way to send the message back to LeBron. Mitchell took the, umm, more direct approach.

“At the end of the day,” the fourth-year guard said, “I made it to the All-Star game. Rudy made it. Coach made it. Mike made it. We’re here.”

He was talking about the Jazz contingent being “here” in Atlanta, but the statement works in a broader sense, too. The Jazz are the best team in the league. They’re elite on both ends of the court. They’re a conference-leading 13-6 against .500+ teams. They’re here. LeBron and his peers will have to reckon with that reality, one way or another. 

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

0%

The Jazz’s lost at New Orleans was weird on a lot of fronts, including in the way the league’s second-best defense just couldn’t get a stop to save their life. But among the weirdest things was how completely ineffective they were on set plays. Utah, usually an elite team in “ATO” (after time out) settings, shot 0-for-9 with one turnover on their first offensive possession following quarter breaks and timeouts in the game’s second half. On five of those possessions, the Pels scored within 10 seconds off the Jazz’s misses, meaning that they literally got more from Utah’s ATO plays than Utah did.

20

In another sign that the Jazz were probably ready for a mental and physical break as All-Star approached, the Jazz really let Philly take them out of what they wanted to do. They got just 20 rim attempts all night (making 12), but on the other hand finished 1-for-13 on 2-point shots outside 15 feet. That’s the most long twos they’ve taken in a game all year, and they are now a pretty pedestrian 3-3 when at least 8% of their non-garbage time shots come from that area.  

14th

Per Dan Feldman of NBC, Conley’s selection to Sunday’s All-Star game set a new record for the latest in a player’s career he made his first All-Star appearance. Vlade Divac, Tyson Chandler and Kyle Korver each made their debut in their respective 12th seasons; Mike’s in his 14th year and just attended the midseason classic for the first time.

15

One other note as we evaluate what’s left for the Jazz and their Western Conference peers: Utah has been remarkably healthy thus far. They’ve only missed a total of 15 player games among their top nine in minutes per game: Conley missed seven, Joe Ingles four, while Mitchell and Derrick Favors each missed a pair. That’s it. By contrast, LAL’s top nine mpg guys have missed a combined 41 games, Phoenix’s have missed 46, LAC’s have missed 53, and Portland’s have missed 60. If those teams get healthier — or if Utah’s main guys miss more team after the break — the second half standings could get tighter.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Uh oh, for the first time this year, we have no Jazz wins to commemorate with a fake Spalding. So instead, we’ll update you on where the game ball standings are as of the break.

At 27-9, the Jazz are being led (unsurprisingly) by their 3 All-Stars on most nights.

We have been doling out credit to a top performer from losses this season. Here were the “strong in defeat” players from New Orleans and Philly.

Strong in Defeat:

  • Jazz 124, Pelicans 129: Bojan Bogdanovic. Bogey was hot early as Utah controlled the scoreboard for much of the first half. He did go a little quiet after intermission, but still finished with 31-5-7 (and 3 steals), including a late three that gave Utah life. Mitchell scored eight (and assisted three more) during that late 14-3 run, but the Jazz wouldn’t score again.
  • Jazz 123, Sixers 131 (OT): Donovan Mitchell. This is a bit complicated given the closing problems mentioned above, but the reality is that no Jazz player was anywhere near as stellar or impactful as Mitchell was for the game’s first 46 minutes. He had 33-8-6, and until that last 9-shot drought, he was doing it efficiently, too. Ingles’ 16 points on 6-for-7 shooting would probably be my backup pick, and Royce O’Neale had another nice all-around game, including on the defensive end against the likes of Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris. 

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

The Jazz get some time to relax and recuperate before the second half of their season gets underway this weekend.

Friday 3/12, Jazz vs. Rockets: Somehow, this is Utah’s first game against the new-look Rockets. Houston traded a pair of All-Star guards, and now Victor Oladipo’s future is uncertain after he turned down the Rockets’ offer to extend2. The result is a team struggling to find its identity. They’ll resume play with the third worst record in the league, as well as the third worst offense. This would be a reunion with Dante Exum, but the beleaguered former Jazz guard is still in a walking boot after a lower leg injury. Five other Rockets also missed the last game before the break, including leading scorer Christian Wood, who hasn’t played since February 4. So we’ll see who’s even healthy by Friday.

Sunday 3/14, Jazz @ Warriors: The Jazz used balanced scoring to beat the Warriors on January 23, with eight guys scoring between nine and 23 points. Since then, GSW has limped along at 11-10, led by another stellar season from Steph Curry, who’s averaging just a fraction under 30. After him, Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre Jr. and James Wiseman can all score, but with middling to bad efficiency (all are 37% or under from three), and Draymond Green is posting his worst statistical season since his rookie year. They do protect the rim decently well, and you still have to worry about them (especially Steph) getting hot. But this is a below average offensive unit, which sounds crazy to say about a Curry-lead team.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

So many great choices this week. I was going to share an updated Gobert block graphic that accounted for Conley’s addition as an All-Star, or there was the awesome E:60 feature on Rudy that aired Sunday. Deron Williams and Raja Bell got together to swap Jerry Sloan memories. And the great story of Conley’s dinner getting interrupted with some great news.

Ultimately, there was only one way to end this week’s SC7, though: celebrating Utah as the most well-represented team in the association at 2021 All-Star Sunday.

  • Mitchell had the best All-Star Sunday, with a 15-point night that included a sweet one-handed alley-oop finish and a buzzer-beating three in the third quarter.
  • Gobert, after pouring in 21 during his 2020 All-Star debut, added 10 more this time around, shooting 5-for-6 from the field. 
  • Conley started the night by coming in a close second to Curry in the 3-point contest. He actually made more shots than the 2-time MVP in the contest, but Curry made more with the bonus balls. Turns out, Conley left his sharp shooting in that 3-point contest, because it took him a while to get on the board in the main event. Ultimately Mitchell found him for an open three, plus he had a couple of nice assists.
  • Quin Snyder and the Jazz staff presided over the whole affair on Team LeBron’s sidelines. The role of All-Star coach is largely pretty ceremonial, but still, that means Snyder and Gobert shared the victory. And anyway, the presence of the Western Conference Coach of the Month for January and February was further recognition around Utah’s league-leading performance so far.

Congratulations to all of the Jazz All-Stars, both in the game and on the bench.

Halfway there. Thanks for reliving another week with us.

© 2024 Salt City Hoops. All Rights Reserved.