February Rewind: Award Races, Defensive Moments & Matchup Monitoring

March 2nd, 2022 | by Zarin Ficklin

The Jazz are coming off a red-hot February and gearing up for the playoff run. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

The monthly rewind is back, with a look back at one of the best Jazz months ever. We skipped the rewind after a 4-12 January, or rather the month-that-shall-be-forgotten. It turns out that reading and writing about the Jazz is much more fun after an 8–1 record.

Tracking the Jazz’s award chances throughout the season

As expected, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert were both selected as NBA All-Stars for the third time. Both will also compete for All-NBA honors later this spring. Beyond that, there’s one race worth monitoring: Defensive Player of the Year.

Gobert is now the favorite to lock up what would be his fourth DPOY trophy. That would tie him with Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace for most such awards in NBA history. Gobert is still in his defensive prime — there’s a clear path for him to win 5+ times, making him the most decorated defensive player of all-time. Pretty cool. Such accomplishment would solidify his Hall of Fame case, which is already strong: as of today he’s a 3-time All-Star, 4-time All-NBA, 5-time all-defense and a 3-time DPOY, to say nothing of his international accomplishments with France.

That said, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves in crowning Gobert the 2021-22 DPOY just yet. Draymond Green was recently the favorite. His team owns the league’s best defense and second best record. The 28 missed games will hurt Green’s case, but if he returns from his disc injury sooner than later, he has several advantages, not the least of which is voter fatigue.

In Gobert’s favor is that the Warriors’ defense has remained just fine with Green out, while Utah’s imploded during Rudy’s absence. Utah’s perimeter woes shined a limelight on how foundational Gobert is.

Also in the running are Jaren Jackson Jr. and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Both are far enough behind that they’ll need something big to happen in the last 20-ish games to make a play.

So, it likely comes down to how soon Green returns. After returning to team practice last week, he said, “In a week and a half, it could be like my conditioning is at a level, my strength is at a level, my explosiveness is at a level where you can go back out there.” Rudy won his first DPOY having played only 56 games. That few games feels like an exception, and at least a minimum bar. Draymond has only played 34 games, so even if he played every remaining game he’d have 45 total — or just over half of his team’s total. It just doesn’t feel like enough.

Green has notably campaigned for the award, and his modus operandi has been to attack Gobert. In character, Rudy had a pitch-perfect defense.

Gobert may find some help from his team. Perimeter defense has looked better, with increased effort from players like Mitchell, along with the emergence of Danuel House Jr. and Trent Forrest. If the Jazz improve their points allowed per 100 possessions they could vault from the 11th best defense to 6th. An improved team ranking could give Gobert’s case a little extra oomph.

A lot can happen, but it’s feeling more and more like Rudy will earn his fourth trophy.

Relevant on-court themes that could translate to the postseason

This regular season is all about translating regular season play into playoff success. We’ve been predominantly monitoring three things:

  1. Health
  2. Effort
  3. Perimeter defense

All three were poor in January, and the result was a 25% winning percentage for the month. All three were solid in February, resulting in an 88% winning percentage. Is it overly reductive to say the Jazz just need to be healthy and focused come playoff time and they’ll be fine?

Yes and no. We have learned that the Jazz at their peak can hang with anyone. Matchups are the other variable. We may have just seen a preview of Utah’s opponents in the first two rounds: Dallas and Phoenix. A few observations:

  • House was a valuable asset in checking both Luka Doncic and Devin Booker. Whether he or Royce O’Neale closes games against those players is an interesting debate — but just having another defensive wing has proven incredibly valuable. House is making a case for the 7th or 8th rotation spot, and if he can consistently contribute he’s a game changer.
  • Gobert’s perimeter defense on Doncic was just so good. Dallas coach Jason Kidd claimed that isolating against Rudy was to the Maverick’s advantage, and I would be thrilled to see him hold to that idea in a playoff matchup.
  • As SCH’s own Dan Clayton pointed out, both Dallas and Phoenix are good matchups for good matchups for Utah in terms of keeping Gobert in the middle for more time.
  • Booker excels at the mid-range and scored there at will against the Jazz, who encourage those shots. Chris Paul did not play, and once assassinated the Jazz when he wore a Rockets jersey.
  • The Mavericks and Suns are both very good defensive teams (ranked 6th and 4th), but it didn’t matter to Mitchell, who scored 26 and 33 respectively. As we’ve seen over the last two years, Donovan’s gained the ability to read and react to any defense.

When we look back on February, we’ll think of these key moments

We have to take the opportunity to show Gobert’s clutch defensive plays against Luke Doncic. Every DPOY campaign needs a highlight reel, and these are worthy inclusions:

As much as Rudy deserves praise for on and off the court actions, his star teammate also deserves a shoutout. Mitchell is known to heat up in the second half of the season. Last month he averaged 28 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, on 50/47/85 shooting splits. You could point to any number of clutch 3s in recent memory, but this step back was particularly fun:

Looking forward, what big issues do the Jazz still need to answer?

1. Which Jazz reserves can prove consistent?

At this point we’ve see some high highs from all key bench players. Jordan Clarkson has had flashes of defensive effort and contributions beyond his highly variable scoring. If the Jazz get the good Clarkson in the playoffs, it could swing a whole series. As the de facto sixth man, Utah really needs this happen.

House has been everything the team needed at the trade deadline. The ability to snake through screens and hit opens threes is a perfect salve for recent woes. But Houston’s beat writers have warned: “He’ll break your heart.” House just needs to keep doing what he’s doing.

Rudy Gay had an excellent start to the season, shooting uber efficiently, and using his length and IQ for disruptive help defense. Either injuries or aging have made Gay look a bit slow, and small-ball lineups have not fared well. The Gay signing always felt like a move that would matter in April and May more than the regular season. What version of Ocho will we see then?

Perhaps the most mercurial (to no one’s surprise) has been Hassan Whiteside. At times he has looked like a revelation. Other times, disengaged. But maybe we’re being extra hard on Whiteside, whose recovery from COVID-19 seriously affected his conditioning, particularly during a stretch when he played extra minutes in Gobert’s absence. So far, minutes with Gay or Eric Paschall at center have looked less appealing, which makes a solid Whiteside very important to the Jazz’s rotation.

I’m unsure if Forrest will see playoff minutes, given the players ahead of him and his lack of shooting. That said, good things seem to happen whenever he’s on the court. Quin Snyder trusts him. An injury or rough stretch from another guard could give him an opportunity.

2. How will the Jazz approach playoff seeding?

Right now the Jazz are most likely to face the Mavericks or Denver Nuggets as the 4th seed. They could try to pass the Grizzlies or Warriors for third, but they’d still likely face one of those afore-mentioned teams, just with a different 2nd round bracket. With Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray potentially returning to Denver’s lineups, along with previous playoff demons, I’d much rather play Dallas.

If the Jazz progress to the second round in that scenario, the Suns likely await. If the Jazz grab the 3rd seed, they’d face whoever holds onto the second seed, currently the Warriors. That hardly seems like a prize worth pushing for.

It will be fascinating to see if they rest more, or purposefully engineer their record to chase a preferred matchup. We’re still a ways out before those kinds of decisions, and there’s still enough time for other surprises to happen.

Either way, the team is hot right now. And just in time. “It looks different, doesn’t it?” Mitchell exclaimed on his way to the locker room after the victory in Phoenix.

Yes, it does look different. The effort is there. The perimeter defense looks much improved. The team is healthier than it’s been in months. Can we fast-forward to the playoffs?

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