Can Utah retool around its two All-Stars? (Melissa Majchrzak via espn.com)
After three years of disappointing results with roughly the same core, it is widely understood that the Jazz cannot simply “run it back” next season, whatever that means. There will be significant change. Exactly how much roster turnover is required to consider the next Jazz iteration a new experiment is still up for debate.
The one thing we do know is that, unless there’s a stunning reversal in the dialogue between the Jazz and their star player, Donovan Mitchell won’t be traded. Beyond that, how much change is necessary in order to claim a new identity? They’ll already be led by a new coach, ostensibly someone with his own governing philosophies on both sides of the court. If in addition to a new system they freshen up 40-60% of the starting lineup and also upgrade a couple of reserve rotation spots, some fans and pundits will view that as enough of a makeover to consider the resulting roster a new Jazz version; others will say that they “ran it back,” or merely reorganized the deck chairs on a listing ship.
In order for the top of their rotation to feel new enough, the Jazz are likely going to have to move on from some of the players who helped make them really good: Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson, Royce O’Neale… Those moves will be risky, and the Jazz will constantly have to balance the competing desires of freshness while also not running away from the traits and skills that elevated them to contender status to begin with.
And of course, it’s impossible to get too far into the discussion without mentioning Rudy Gobert’s name. The longest-tenured Jazz man by a wide margin, Utah’s other All-Star has been a defining figure in terms of how the club plays. Any Jazz construction still resting on the foundation of Mitchell’s dynamic creation and Gobert’s all-world defensive impact can be better described as a retool than as a down-to-the-studs remodel.
Maybe that’s OK. But that’s where the questions have to begin this offseason: can the Jazz achieve an element of newness without necessarily downgrading in quality?
Gobert is rumored to be available to other suitors, although the Jazz’s asking price is reportedly high. The sometimes-icy relationship between Mitchell and Gobert has made it popular to assume that moving the latter is part of the Jazz’s offseason plan. But if Mitchell were on board, there are plenty of ways the Jazz could retool around those two but still put out a very different basketball product.
Should they? Will they? Would Mitchell permit it? What would those roster versions look like? Let’s explore.
Chris Paul is an all-time top 10 point guard. It’s also been common knowledge for some time that he is also an all-time difficult teammate in some ways.
Former CP3 teammates Matt Barnes and J.J. Redick recently dished on the latter’s podcast. “CP is kind of an acquired taste,” Barnes admitted. “These guys today kind of need to be pampered with a message. CP wasn’t that kind of guy.”
Redick concurred: “The sick feeling I had going into every Clippers game, the performance anxiety… was amplified because I knew there was definitely going to be one of my teammates that was going to hold me accountable for every f—ing thing I did.”
Paul would argue with teammates and make little effort to conceal his disgust when things went wrong. He was frank in diagnosing team shortcomings, to the point that some people wondered if he was throwing them under the bus. Even when paired with generational offensive star James Harden, the two guards famously clashed over Paul’s “barking,” according to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon, and Harden eventually asked the franchise to trade his backcourt mate. Some of Paul’s more hilarious, apoplectic moments transformed into highly GIF-able moments. He wasn’t even wrong a lot of the time, Barnes pointed out, but his delivery “was just hard to swallow for some of our teammates.”
What’s interesting, though, is that as Paul’s career has advanced, he’s been rebranded from “consummate jerk teammate” to “fiery perfectionist.” He’s now the cultural and basketball leader on a perennial contender, and as such, people now see that intensity with teammates very differently, the symptom of a smart, demanding superstar who will sacrifice anything for a chance at success.
“He just wants to win,” Redick said of the Point God. Barnes called him “a f—ing soldier I’d go to war with.”
In other words, they love and revere him. For the same reasons they once resented him.
Gobert’s is a personality not all that unlike CP3’s: he demands near perfection, he isn’t afraid to call teammates out, and he often does a poor job hiding his frustration. Like Paul, Gobert has been labeled as a challenging teammate. With time and perspective, the collective NBA wisdom may come around the the same realization they did with the bulldog guard: that Gobert’s urgency on competitive matters doesn’t manifest because he’s an irredeemable asshole, but because he’s pathologically obsessed with winning.
The CP3-Harden relationship is actually an interesting cautionary tale. Paul openly lobbied for more structure and team-oriented play, Harden ultimately got sick of it and demanded him gone. Management granted the latter’s wish, and made a bad deal, only to learn that Paul’s bristly approach to delivering feedback wasn’t the problem. They attached picks to Paul in a trade for Russell Westbrook, who upon arrival was “appalled” at the Rockets’ lack of structure and accountability, ESPN reported. Houston dead-ended yet again with the Russ-Harden pairing and traded the two six weeks apart. In Harden’s next stop, he lasted a little over a year before his relationship had gone frosty with yet another star teammate and Kevin Durant reportedly told the Brooklyn brass, “F— it, James isn’t bringing shit.”
The problem it turns out, wasn’t that Paul was too loud; it’s that he was right.
Just like Paul, Gobert could stand to soften his approach at times. There are also things on the basketball court he should improve on to help improve Utah’s title chances. But his intensity about winning habits is not the issue holding Utah back. You can be mad at a mechanic for curtly telling you that your brake pads are worn all the way down, but ultimately the mechanic’s brusqueness isn’t your biggest issue. You can fix the underlying problem or you can ignore him out of spite and crash into a telephone pole.
The Rockets, metaphorically speaking, crashed. They scapegoated the messenger instead of reflecting on the message. They prioritized the feelings of a sensitive star instead of humbly evaluating their culture and habits, and in the end the flaws Paul tried to point out survived long after they sent him packing. Their contention window slammed shut, and they had to blow it up. They ended last season 20-62. Meanwhile, Paul has been celebrated as a cultural bastion on one of the best teams in the Western Conference, and has returned to All-NBA status.
Every team has its own personality mix and dynamic, so it’s hard to know exactly how analogous Houston’s situation is to what the Jazz are currently living through. But at the core of the Gobert-Mitchell question are some of the same things people wondered about mid-career CP3. If the two are going to continue to coexist, an absolutely vital consideration is how the club’s leaders can protect a culture where feedback isn’t considered problematic. Teams can’t win at any level if they can’t freely, maturely talk about what they need to do better.
“Sometimes I can be clumsy with what I say,” Gobert told ESPN during the season, “but I always speak my mind and it always comes from a place of wanting to win.
“Like I said to Don privately, everything that I do on the court is to help him be better.”
Circling back to the main point, if Mitchell and Gobert do both reprise their roles as Jazz icons, then enough would need to change around them for the end product to feel like a new experiment.
That’s doable. Here are a few constructs where the Jazz keep their All-Stars and at least one of their other four main rotation pieces, but still field a very different team.
Aside from the almost ironclad certainty of Mitchell returning, the thing I’m most sure about this offseason is that Conley won’t be the starting point guard next year.
Conley is still a valuable table-setter who impacts teammates positively, but identity-wise, the Jazz just wouldn’t be different enough with him, Mitchell and Gobert all returning in their current roles. The notion that Conley and Mitchell can’t produce winning results together because of their size is a myth, but it seems clear the Jazz are focused on shifting more ball-handling duties to the younger guard. So it makes sense to start with some scenarios where Conley is outgoing.
The most commonly rumored trade partner in a Conley swap is Washington, whose offer would likely be 3-and-D guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and one of their forwards. Kyle Kuzma, their second-leading scorer and minute-getter, is probably too rich a price for the Wiz, so it could come down to Rui Hachimura or Deni Avdija. I think they’ll more easily part with Hachimura, who I like better anyway, if the Jazz are trying to remain competitive. He’s a meaty four who hasn’t fully blossomed yet but who’s improving as a shooter.
Separately, Utah could dangle Clarkson to add another defensive wing. They were interested in Josh Richardson a few months ago, or this could be a buy-low moment for Matysse Thybulle, whose role dwindled over the course of the year. But my favorite target here would be P.J. Washington, whom the Hornets are evidently willing to move. Charlotte would have to include another small contract or two (or send them elsewhere).
At that point the Jazz have given up enough shooting and creation that they should probably hold onto Bogdanovic in the short term. They’d also need to target a backup PG with the midlevel exception. I’d see if they could get Utah collegian Delon Wright for around TMLE money. He’s a solid shooter, defender and P&R creator. They’d also want a minimum-salary center (let’s say, eh, Damian Jones), although with the Hachimura-Washington combo they could feasibly play small at times, too. Re-sign Danuel House Jr. with non-Bird rights. If they can find a deal for Rudy Gay, see if Juancho Hernangomez wants to stick around at the minimum.
Resulting depth chart:
(Assuming they could retain Eric Paschall for around $5 million or less, this version would actually get the Jazz just under the tax, too. They’d also still have the Ingles TPE intact, plus they’d create new TPEs for the different in salary on the Conley and Clarkson deals.)
How different is this? Two new starters and five new rotation pieces is not nothing. With a new coach/system and with Mitchell as the full-time ball handler, this could feel like a pretty different take on the Mitchell-Gobert Jazz.
How realistic is this? The Washington deal is in the realm of what’s being discussed. Clarkson-for-Washington is a bit reachier, but there’s not a ton of intel out there about what Charlotte wants for PJ. Wright is a former Ute who knows Salt Lake.
Competitive impact: That team is huge, but also younger, in a way that could produce a backwards step from the current Jazz version at its peak. Maybe there’s enough size and variability to make it worth it, especially if Mitchell has another mini-leap that could take him to top-10 status.
Four months ago, Sacramento was hoping to be competitive enough to make the play-in, so they were passing up offers like Clarkson and a pick (plus filler) for Harrison Barnes. But then they went 9-16 after the trade deadline and missed the play-in. Maybe they’d be more likely to listen now, particularly if Utah upgraded its offer to include, for example, O’Neale or a sweetener like Jared Butler. It’s a longer shot than the above, but would give Utah another bona fide scorer — one with a big body and championship experience.
Then they could afford a few offense-for-defense swaps. Would Atlanta’s crush on Bogey get them to consider a deal around De’Andre Hunter? The latter has a lot of tools and was a recent lottery pick, but was a negative-value player by every all-in metric last season. Bogey is by far the better player as of today. The Jazz might also have to take back some undesirable salary for this deal to work — like eating Danilo Gallinari’s $5M guarantee for them, so maybe they could also extract the #44 pick. Alternatively, they could have Atlanta include Gorgui Dieng in a sign-and-trade (with his consent) at the lowest dollar figure that makes the trade work, or the Hawks could route a small salary elsewhere.
If Gary Harris’ market is restricted to MLE offers, the Jazz could try to entice him with a deal starting at $9.87M, the most they could take back in a sign-and-trade using their trade exception from February. That’s a slight haircut from the full MLE for Harris, but more than the TMLE that many contenders (like Denver) can offer. Orlando would want something to help facilitate: probably a second or at the very least second-round swap rights, but maybe they’d consider just straight cash since he’d be walking anyway.
In this scenario they haven’t dealt Conley yet — and that’s probably OK. As stated earlier, he’s not going to start for them, but maybe at his age an 18-22mpg role is better suited anyway. They could explore his trade value later, and in the meantime they’d have the best insurance polity in the league at backup PG.
Utah would still need a minimum-salary center (is Robin Lopez still interested?), and I’d use some or all of TMLE to add one more defense-minded reserve. Bruce Brown maybe, or is Thaddeus Young willing to play for the TMLE at this point? Keep one of Hernangomez/House.
Resulting depth chart:
How different is this? Pretty damn different, honestly: 60% of the starting lineup would be different, with multiple new rotation pieces as well.
How realistic is this? No idea where Sacto’s threshold currently is on a Barnes deal, but he’s in the final year, so Clarkson, Royce and a 1st doesn’t feel like a total lowball. Bogey-Hunter could give both teams more of things they each need, but Atlanta may be more focused on his profile and potential than what today’s negative impact stats say. In terms of the free agents, vets like Harris, Lopez and Brown would want to know who’s calling plays and setting rotations before they’d commit to the Jazz.
Competitive impact: If you think Barnes is “third quasi-star” level good, this one is pretty interesting, competitively speaking. Harris can also create a little. They’d be bigger and longer, but this version is a bit more veteran-heavy than the last group. You’d definitely want to be able to win now with this collection of veterans.
Per the Athletic’s Tony Jones, Bogdanovic has “garnered a lot of interest.” His scoring ability and reasonable, expiring contract might represent Utah’s best chance at fishing for an upgrade. If Atlanta won’t do the Bogey-Hunter swap mentioned above, maybe they’ll listen on Bogey-John Collins frameworks. B/R’s Jake Fischer said Collins is “clearly the guy they’re most interested in moving,” so maybe there’s something there. Even a construct where the Hawks get a center (Jakob Poeltl? Myles Turner?) and Bogey lands with a third team should be an option. Including O’Neale in the deal could give the Jazz a chance to add Wright while keeping their TMLE intact.
Let’s say the Jazz still do the Harris S&T maneuver from above and they would also trade Conley for size in this scenario. New York and Cleveland are the other teams with rumored interest, so let’s pretend the package is something like Evan Fournier. The Jazz may want to bundle Gay as well, but then New York has to be OK including Cam Reddish. If they can land a cheap backup center (maybe Willie Cauley-Stein if his personal stuff is taken care of), then in this scenario they have a way to keep the likable Clarkson, and they’d still have the TMLE so any young guys they sign throughout the season could get longer, team-friendly deals.
Resulting depth chart:
How different is this? Once again, that’s a pretty different squad, with only three of the main six guys returning, and 60% of the starting lineup being younger, bigger players than the guys they’ll replace in the lineups. (Fournier is technically the same age as O’Neale.)
How realistic is this? The Collins thing is the big unknown here. They want to move him, but is Bogey in line with their anticipated return? Portland would probably offer draft capital instead, so it depends on Atlanta’s short-term goals. Once again, Wright, Harris and WCS would have to *choose* the Jazz, so that’s a question mark, too. The Conley deal seems pretty realistic.
Competitive impact: This one all comes down to whether you think Collins can be a third star. And there’s a good chance he can. He’s an efficient scorer and he even grades out as above-average defensively. Fournier, Harris and Wright would be size upgrades at their respective positions, but might be less good overall than the guys they’d replace.
By the end of the week, Rudy Gobert may well be employed elsewhere. It’s just naive at this point to pretend that the Jazz dealing the big fella isn’t a distinct possibility. If there is a move out there that checks all their boxes and convinced them to move forward without the 3-time Defensive Player of the Year, it’s likely that we learn about it in these next four days. A trade involving Gobert would almost certainly include draft capital moving around, so be on your toes between now and the close or Thursday’s draft. I’d consider it fairly like that the Jazz make at least one deal involving a current rotation player before bedtime on Thursday.
Given all that we know about Gobert’s market, his skills, his limitations and his strained relationship with the club’s other All-Star, the chances of a Gobert-themed “Woj bomb” is somewhere around a coin toss. Let’s just be honest.
But suggesting that the Jazz have to break up their All-Star duo to come back different enough is just plain inaccurate. As shown here, there are multiple ways the Jazz could retool around those two and bring back a roster that is bigger, younger, better, or all three. These scenarios offer three specific examples, but that’s just a start, really. There are myriad other ways they could use their TMLE, their trade exception, and the market interest in their complementary pieces. We didn’t even explore Cleveland as a Conley trade partner, and there are other teams asking around about Bogdanovic, Clarkson and O’Neale. Heaven knows they’ll look different, they have exceptions to fill out minor roles, and a new coach will inject some freshness. Keeping Mitchell and Gobert doesn’t have to mean “running it back.”
If the Jazz want to re-envision themselves but keep their cornerstones in place, they can.
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