Salt City Seven: Olynyk Shrugged, Agbaji’s Growth, Chicken Stats & More

Agbaji’s growth was a major plot point in the Jazz’s spring. (Leah Hogsten, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

There was a moment in the final week of the Utah Jazz’s season that just felt like a perfect encapsulation of the 2022-23 squad.

The Jazz were down three starters against a surging Laker team with a pair of superstars and clear motivation to win. They had kept it close despite LeBron James’ typical brilliance, but had let the rope slip late and found themselves down 10 in the final three minutes. Kelly Olynyk then assisted a pair of threes and Kris Dunn scored a layup, but victory still seemed pretty unlikely when the Jazz took possession still down five with 46 seconds to play. Stat site inpredictable.com estimates that a generic NBA team has a 3% chance of victory with those parameters.

That’s when Olynyk came across midcourt and launched a 30-footer. Dennis Schroder was waiting for him, but was way back below the 3-point line. Time was an issue, and Olynyk likely knew that Utah’s win probably was waning with each second. So he took a quick — but fairly ugly — shot. He splayed his legs, twisted his body, and practically heaved what might have been the most “eff it, might as well” shot of the season. And of course, it banked in.

The veteran forward turned around and literally shrugged as he went back down the court. 

Olynyk’s missile only took Utah’s likelihood of winning to 11.8%, per Inpredictable, but after another stop and a pair of Damian Jones free throws, the game was tied. The Jazz would eventually lose in overtime, but even taking James’ Lakers to an extra period with one of the unlikeliest 10-0 runs was just so quintessentially Team 49.

I’ve hypothesized — with zero sources or inside info on this, mind you — that Olynyk’s shrug might have been an indication that he didn’t really expect the Hail Mary to go in. I’m as confident as I’ve ever been that the Jazz wouldn’t ask players to do anything other than try to win every game, but Olynyk’s flip attitude about having sunk it made me wonder if the shrug was directed at executives who happened to be sitting in the front row that night: a way of saying, Hey, if even THAT shot is going in, then I guess we’re doing this.

That game, that shot, that shrug — the whole thing might have been the most apt metaphor possible for Utah’s entire season.

The way the focus going in was on who wasn’t there and not who was. The way Utah hung around despite an objective talent deficit. The way Utah surged every time the outcome looked obvious. The way they kept hilariously finding ways to compete. Even the way they ultimately fell short, but in a way that was legitimately fun and endearing.

Following the previous year’s team caused me to reflect a lot on the relationship between expectations and fan enjoyment. Had last year’s team lost that exact same game in that exact same way, it would have triggered a flurry of frustrated think pieces about the players’ mental fortitude and the tactical flaws. In contrast, this year fans got to have the emotional experience that Olynyk had after his shot careened hard off the glass and through the net: a sort of bewildered acceptance of, “Oh, I guess we’re good.”

It’s also kind of perfect that it was Olynyk. The Jazz were very intentional about assembling a roster that was very much youth-focused, but with enough grown-ups in the room to enable the group as a whole to experience meaningful basketball situations. Sometimes it was Olynyk. Sometimes it was Mike Conley (pre-trade) organizing the Jazz into a mature and competent offense. Sometimes it was Jordan Clarkson’s ability to break down defenses. This transitional Jazz team was as much about those veterans as it was a true rebuilding effort, and that was not by accident.

Would the Jazz have improve their lottery odds by some percentage points had they been less reliant on those veterans? Probably. But the logic was that by embracing the maturity of those professionals, they would create a better ecosystem for the kiddos. And even when it started to look like they might pivot to a more long-term focus, some moment like this would happen to make it clear that this group was too good, weird and plucky to contend for top-5 lottery odds. And usually, like Olynyk after his 3-point heave, the fan base would collectively just shrug and grin.

So let a shrugging Olynyk stand as the lasting embodiment, the perfect symbol of Team 49. Let the historians or epic poets or whoever remember this Jazz squad as a group of guys who never once got hung up on what they didn’t have, who improbably yet consistently stumbled into competitiveness, who ultimately lost more than they won, but who approached their work with a joyful looseness and a “Why not?” spirit.

Team 49? Try Team Shrug.

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

The regular season is over, but there’s still a little bit of pick-watching to do as this week’s Play-In Tournament unfolds. Because the Jazz own Minnesota’s pick in the upcoming draft, the Play-In really matters because it could put a second lottery pick in Justin Zanik’s toolkit.

Utah has three picks in the upcoming NBA draft.

It feels a little gross to root against former Jazzmen Rudy Gobert and Conley in this week’s play-in tournament, but a pair of Wolves losses this week would mean Utah’s lottery chances get a boost.

The Wolves are going to take on this challenge amid injuries and drama. Their best wing defender, Jaden McDaniels, reportedly fractured his hand on Sunday, and Gobert reportedly won’t participate in the play-in as the result of a sideline scrape with teammate Kyle Anderson. 

Meanwhile, some of the teams Minnesota will/could face are playing pretty well:

• The Lakers ended the season on a 9-2 surge and are finally mostly healthy. (Dennis Schroder missed Sunday with a neck issue, but is listed day-to-day.)
• If they fall to L.A., they’ll most likely face New Orleans, which itself was 9-2 before surrendering a double-digit lead in Minneapolis. Sounds like Zion Williamson still won’t be back.
• The other West playoff team, OKC, had a 12-8 close: they went 8-2 starting with a pair of games against Utah, then lost six of eight, they closed with a pair of wins. They’re healthy except for their long-term injuries (Chet Holmgren and Kenrich Williams), and likely All-NBA honoree Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been phenomenal.
• The only Eastern Conference team whose play-in fate impacts the Wolves pick is Miami, which finished 4-1 (against mostly unmotivated teams) after an extended 8-12 malaise. The Heat went 3-1 against the Hawks this season, but a combined 1-6 against the Raptors and Bulls, one of whom would await them if they somehow lost to Atlanta on Tuesday.

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

Rather than use this space to recap a somewhat inconsequential week, let’s check in on some stats we’ve been tracking all season and/or some other data points that tell the story of the Jazz’s season.

64%

Only MVP frontrunner Joel Embiid and superstar Damian Lillard scored more than Lauri Markkanen’s 1,691 points this season on at least the same 64% true shooting figure. Markkanen had a truly special season. In the last three years, the only players to average 25+ per game and score that efficiently are Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, Zion Williamson, Embiid, Lillard and Markkanen: quite the who’s who of scoring superstars.

51.5%

The other big discovery this season was Walker Kessler, one of just four players to hold opponents under 52% at the rim on at least 350 contests. (Markkanen also held opponents to 56.5%, making him also an above-average rim protector.) Kessler also had the highest eFG% (72%) of any player with at least 400 shots.

9.6

The Jazz were the third best offense in the NBA through February 7, the day before their midseason trade. Since that trade, their offense ranked 24th. Part of the difference is owed to 3-point shooting: they went from making 14.4 threes per contest to 11.2, a 9.6-point-per-game delta in that one department alone.

100+

On the other end, the Jazz became the first team since 1990-91 to allow 100 points in every game of a season, per Tyson Ewing. Their opponent eFG% was actually average at 54.1%, but they were the third worst team at forcing turnovers.

23

In all, 23 Jazzmen saw the court this season, and 14 of them at some point had a career-high in points, rebounds or assists. That of course includes rookies Kessler, Ochai Agbaji, Simone Fontecchio and Johnny Juzang. Markkanen (25.6) and Jordan Clarkson (20.8) both averaged career-highs for the season.

Looking at the Xs and Os behind a successful play.

I’ve said it before: as the season wound down, my eyes were increasingly glued to one guy: rookie guard Agbaji.

The KU product’s development is probably the most important thing that the Jazz could have focused on in April, and as more guys shuffled in and out with various maladies, the Jazz started to get pretty creative with Agbaji’s workload. It was awesome to see him gain experience with scenarios and play types where we haven’t really seen him deployed all that heavily before.

Let’s dedicate our final “playbook” section of the year to that development. Here are two plays from Agbaji’s 22-point game against L.A. that demonstrate the encouraging growth in his menu of options.

From an X-and-O standpoint, this is nothing all that spectacular. It’s a pretty simple BLOB (baseline out of bounds) set play where a shooter fakes a backscreen to freeze his defender, then sprints into a pick set for him to the perimeter. The Jazz — um, how shall we put this nicely — are aware of Malik Beasley’s defensive tendencies and also know that scheme-wise the Lakers are going to leave Anthony Davis near the paint on the second pick. But the play itself isn’t rocket science. Every team has a play like this in the “BLOB” section of the playbook.

What’s impressive, then, isn’t the X-and-O architecture, but the fact that they are constantly putting Agbaji in these types of sets. “Movement shooter” is a very different offensive profile in the NBA than “spot-up guy.” The fact that the Jazz are constantly running him off screens and/or drawing up set pieces for him is a whole new realm of role exploration for the 22-year-old. That’s meaningful even regardless of shot outcomes; he shot 4-for-8 from deep on Tuesday and 0-for-8 in the very next game, and I kind of couldn’t care less. It’s about him trying on this bigger role.

Speaking of which, the Jazz also put the ball in his hands more as other guards needed time off down the stretch. Here’s another play:

That’s Agbaji running the show as the pick-and-roll ball handler! If you got in a time machine and went told someone last December that Och would be running P&R, they’d think you were joking, based on his early timidity about, you know, touching the basketball. But he executes the “snake” really well here. Again, he knows Davis is going to be not just in drop coverage, but ALLLL the way back. So when he veers around the ball screen, he can use a beat and then get behind Udoka Azubuike’s roll as almost a second brush screen. Eventually Davis and Rui Hachimura offer some token help, just leaning in his direction, but the instant they relax a little, Och lets fly.

Again, nothing groundbreaking here from a play design. Guards snake the P&R all the time. But this isn’t a position we’ve seen Agbaji in almost at all. Play type stats at NBA.com say that he finished just 38 plays all season as the P&R handler. The Jazz started giving him those reps late, partly out of necessity but also partly because that’s exactly what a team in that position should be doing with late-season possessions: experimenting.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

Here’s the final batch of game-by-game recognition for top performers. 

Jazz 118, Nuggets 114: Ochai Agbaji. The rookie looked mighty smooth in this one, mostly by getting the ball into the paint and showing the athleticism, strength and body control that made him a lottery pick. He finished with a career-best 28, including three clutch buckets — all self-created off of righty drives — and a pair of free throws to ice it. Kris Dunn deserves consideration for dishing the most assists by a Jazz player (14) in just over nine years, as well as 19 points, eight boards and three steals. Luka Samanic (23 points on 14 shots) also can freaking play. But sometimes it’s not all that complicated, and this was one of those times.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 133, Lakers 135 (OT): Kelly Olynyk. Seven finished in double figures in this one, but Olynyk is the primary reason this one ever even went to extra time. It was practically over when the Lakers went up 10 with 2:30 to go. Olynyk then promptly set up two teammates for threes, and his own 30-foot pull-up banker followed by a shrug was the perfect encapsulation of the Jazz’s season. The Jazz were down five inside the final minute when he hit that, so part of me wonders if that was just a “screw it, might as well just let ‘er rip” type of attempt that surprised even KO when it went in. Then he went on to score six more in OT, for a final line of 23-7-7. Agbaji’s my runner-up on this one, but how about Damian Jones with 16 & 8 (on 5-for-5 shooting)?!
• Jazz 98, Thunder 114: Kris Dunn. This pretty easily could have been another Olynyk night (16-14-8), except for the seven turnovers and problematic plus-minus. The Jazz actually won Dunn’s minutes, as the veteran guard flirted with a triple double (22-7-8) on 9-for-10 shooting. He was also good defensively: Thunder players shot 6-for-19 when guarded by him, including 2/11 from deep.
• Jazz 117, Team 128: Kris Dunn. It’s temping to reward Udoka Azubuike on a 6-for-6 night that included several flexes and primal yells. Or for that matter, I’ll probably remember this game more for Simone Fontecchio’s night (20 & 9, including that silly stepback) than anything. But I think this has to be Dunn again: team highs in points (26), rebounds (10) and assists (8, T-Agbaji), but also another really nice close. The Lakers were up nine when Dunn scored nine during a 14-8 Utah run that made it close. The Dunn Floater™ is a real thing now, and his 9-point fourth also included a leaking dunk and two eff-that-if-you’re-going-to-back-off-me-that-much jumpers. Just a really nice close by Dunn as more minutes came his way late in the season.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

Nothing is happening for the Jazz in the next seven days, but there are a lot of important dates to keep an eye on:

• Play-in tournament: April 11-14. This matters to the Jazz because, at outlined above, the outcome of the each game could impact Utah’s second pick, which comes via the play-in-bound Timberwolves.
• Draft ties broken: April 17? The coin flips to break draft ties happens during the first Board of Governors meeting after the playoffs are set. Last year that took place on April 18, the first Monday after the play-in. We don’t know exactly when the board meets next this season, but next Monday is a good guess. However, Utah’s and Philly’s picks are set, so this date only matters to the Jazz if Minnesota and New Orleans either both wind up IN the playoffs or both wind up OUTSIDE the playoffs.
• Draft lottery: May 16. If the Jazz move into the top four (they have a 20.3% chance, per Tankathon.com), this could wind up being one of the most important days in franchise history. In a locked room with league officials, representatives from each lottery team, and an outside auditor, ping pong balls marked 1-14 will be placed in a drawing maching. Four will be selected, and each of the 1,001 possible 4-number combinations will be assigned to a lottery team (except for one; they’ll re-draw if that one comes up). After the first pick is assigned that way, they’ll go again for No. 2, and this time if any of the combinations assigned to the first winner are drawn, they’ll redraw and start again. They’ll repeat for Nos. 3 and 4, and then stuff logo cards in envelopes so they can repeat the drama on live TV in a last-to-first format. The Jazz will have 45 of those 1,000 combinations assigned to them.
• NBA Draft: June 22. The Jazz have drafted in the top 10 just three times in the past 17 drafts. The last time, they selected Dante Exum, who struggled with injuries and ultimately lost the faith of his coach. Before that, it was Enes Freedom (nee Kanter), who forced his way out of Utah while still on a rookie contract, but who definitely missed the mountains. Before that, they drafted Gordon Hayward ninth and saw him develop into an All-Star before leaving to Boston. This June, they’ll try again. 

Random stuff from the Jazz community

After the home schedule wrapped up with the sweet reward of free chicken, I started to wonder: just how often has an opponent sent Utah’s crowd home with a tasty sandwich?

So you probably know the drill: if a visiting player misses both freebies during a fourth-quarter trip to the line in a Jazz home game, folks at the Viv get a chicken sandwich, as was the case when Peyton Watson had an 0-for-2 trip on Saturday. But did you know the promotion was only triggered SIX TIMES this whole season?! Here are some fun facts I found during a deep dive on fried poultry:

• Utah’s six glorious free chicken moments were spread pretty evenly throughout the season: one each in October, November, December, January, February and April. The only month home fans didn’t get that sweet, sweet bird was March.
• The Jazz were 5-1 in games where the chicken was obtained, the only loss coming to Atlanta after Jalen Johnson missed a pair.
• The Clippers were the most generous opponents, feeding Utahns twice via missed free throws. Terance Mann and Moussa Diabate were the heroes on those two nights.
• Indiana (Ben Mathurin) and Memphis (Xavier Tillman) were the other two, before Watson on Saturday. Tillman actually missed both FTs on two different instances — but both were in the same game, so the chicken was only triggered once.
• There were 24 other times when a player teased the Utah faithful by missing the first of two fourth-quarter freebies with the prize on the line, only to let the chicken, uh, fly the coop. If you’re good at math, you know that means that players shot 80% on the second free throw when chicken hung in the balance — well above the league average for free-throw shooting.
• The biggest fowl foils were Jeremy Sochan, Jusuf Nurkic and Montrezl Harrell, who each had two different times where they goaded the Utah crowd by missing one, only to deny them the goods seconds later. As a team, San Antonio got Utah’s collective mouth watering five different times but never ceded the sandwich.
• Phoenix, Orlando and Milwaukee never missed a fourth-quarter free throw in Utah this season — on 9, 2 and 2 attempts, respectively.

Hey, it’s a big deal:

Kelly Olynyk was FIRED up for free chicken after the Clippers missed both free throws 😂 pic.twitter.com/j5mguRJBgZ

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) January 19, 2023

We did it! Another year of Salt City Sevens is in the books! Thanks for following along with us, and we’ll obviously have a ton more coverage as the Jazz head into a potentially franchise-defining summer.