Salt City Seven: Sexton’s Growth, Markkanen Awaiting All-Star News & More

Markkanen and Sexton were acquired for the long haul, writes Dan Clayton. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

The Jazz rebuild is decidedly ahead of schedule. They amassed a pile of assets over the summer with the idea that some of them might yield star-level pieces. One of them already has, as Lauri Markkanen could be on the cusp of All-Stardom. (More on that in the next section.)

They also have long-term control over two rookies who have announced themselves as potential key players on future contending versions of the Jazz. Walker Kessler’s feel for the game and elite paint defense has him looking like a potential long-term starter, and Ochai Agbaji has shown flashes of his lottery talent. Those three, according to some reports, are the least likely Jazzmen to move in the next 10 days as teams stare down the leaguewide trade deadline. So that rebuild is off to a strong start, even before they’ve used a single one of the eight draft picks they acquired last summer.

But how far ahead of schedule the Jazz are might just be determined over time by a fourth Jazz figure: fifth-year guard Collin Sexton.

The former Cav wasn’t mentioned when one outlet shared its list Jazzmen off limits for trades. On the other hand, plugged-in local reporter Sarah Todd did include him in the Markkanen-Kessler-Agbaji tier of near-untouchable players, saying that the Jazz are “invested in what he could become” and would have to be “blown away” by an offer to move him. That’s an interesting contrast.

At first glance, Sexton is averaging a career-low 14.3 points per game, but that’s the Jazz taking what they hope is a step back that results in two steps forward. Dialing back his responsibilities some from a 4-year Cleveland stint where he handled the ball non-stop might give Young Bull a chance to hone some things, the logic goes. And anyway, when you adjust for minutes, he’s right at his career per-36 marks for points (21.6), rebounds (3.4) and assists (4.1). Encouragingly, he’s also having far and away his most efficient season as a scorer, with .614 true shooting that blows away the .550 from his Ohio era.

That efficiency jump is mostly due to a massive 3-point improvement, but oddly, that’s mostly due to off-the-bounce triples, not the safer catch-and-shoot variety. Sexton has converted a silly 52.8% of his pull-up threes. Having a reliable off-the-dribble outside jumper is a lethal combination with Sexton’s wrecking-ball skills as a driver. His core strength gives him nice body control once he’s gained an advantage, and he’s a clever finisher (48% in “floater range”).

He’s mostly an A-to-B driver, but his strong body enables him to get to the paint pretty much when he wants. He finishes well enough on drives (51.7%) but what that really unlocks is a boatload of free throws. His ratio of freebies to field goal attempts (.428) is elite for a guard.

That combination of defense-busting drives and off-the-bounce threes would make him even more potent if the decision making were better by some degree. That’s primarily what the Jazz are working on. He passes on 29% of his drives, which is, like, fine — it’s more an issue that some of those passes are kind of scripted as opposed to in-the-moment reads. In a bench role, you can kind of live with that. That said, Mike Conley’s absence earlier this season required a different level of playmaking from Sexton. That stretch included a game where Will Hardy showed frustration with the youngster on the sideline, but it also included a 12-assist outing.

Defense is the other thing that will determine whether Sexton turns into a core piece or remains a bench battering ram. Sexton is a tough defender whose motor is always running, but that’s not always the same thing as being an actually good defender. Particularly when the Jazz deploy any sort of gimmicky scheme that changes his core job description within the defense, he can get a little lost — such as with the proactive trapping the Jazz deployed on Saturday.

That said, defense and decision making are two areas where a lot of youngsters could use some improvement, and the Jazz secured the long-term rights to the barely-24 guard with the belief that he can still be honed into something.

For all those reasons, I’m not surprised that local folks like Sarah are hearing that Sexton is most likely here for the long haul. The Jazz acquired him with the goal of giving him a long runway. This trade deadline might revolve around the value of Utah’s young vets — Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt are constantly in the rumor mill, for example. But one young vet who is less likely to see his name on an ESPN Breaking News banner on February 9 in the young, dynamic, still-developing Sexton.

In the words of Jazz players/people

“It happens if it happens.”

-Markkanen on the impending All-Star reserve announcement

As you’re reading this, Western Conference coaches are filling out their ballots (or delegating the task to some staffer). By Thursday evening, we’ll know if Lauri Markkanen will represent the Jazz at next month’s All-Star game in Salt Lake City.

It probably bodes well for the Finnish forward that players and media understand his case more than fans. He and Domantas Sabonis were 4th/5th and 5th/4th on the player and media vote, respectively. Both Euro bigs outpaced other candidates like Anthony Davis and Paul George. Not that those populations are exactly in synch with coaches, but there’s probably a bit more alignment there in terms of understanding Markkanen’s impact beyond the back of the basketball card.

That said, the back of Markkanen’s basketball card is plenty impressive, too. As of the moment the coaches vote, Lauri is a 24.9 ppg scorer who grabs 8.6 boards a game and whose 52-43-87 shooting splits have carried him to 66.6% true shooting, the best among all 20-ppg scorers other than MVPs Nikola Jokic and Kevin Durant. And just as importantly, the Jazz are .500 as of the coaches vote, having beaten the Mavs (sans Luka Doncic) on Saturday.

Still, there are only three more guaranteed spots for frontcourt players, although coaches could elect to put four or even five big men on the roster, at the expense of the guards. It will most likely be 3-4 of these guys:

• Markkanen (see above)
• Sabonis, one of the key ingredients to the league’s best offense and a surprising No. 3 seed (as of today)
• George, a 7-time All-Star averaging 24-6-5, but who has missed 17 of his team’s 53 games (almost a third)
• AD, who had a short stretch where he was playing like an MVP candidate (35 & 16 over nine games) but the 8-time All-Star has played barely over half his team’s games

That’s probably the field. Kawhi Leonard (just 844 minutes played over 27 games) didn’t make the top eight in the fan-media-player combined vote, and Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green (7 & 8 in the starter vote) probably aren’t serious candidates this time around. Jerami Grant will get some votes. Jaren Jackson Jr., Aaron Gordon, DeAndre Ayton and Rudy Gobert likely don’t have the counting stats to be serious threats, even though all are important to good teams. Brandon Ingram and Karl-Anthony Towns haven’t played enough games.

If four bigs makes the team, then Markkanen will likely be one of them — though that will be bad news for someone like Dame Lillard or De’Aaron Fox. If only three frontcourt players make it as reserves, then it will come down to a question of what coaches value: two legacy All-Stars with bunches of missed games, or two young fulcrums to unexpectedly good outfits.

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

59+

Two of the top four scoring performances in this year’s NBA have come against the Jazz: Joel Embiid’s 59 back in November and Damian Lillard’s 60 on Wednesday night.

+11.5

Kelly Olynyk’s return from injury made it official: Kessler remained in the starting lineup next to Olynyk and Markkanen. That trio has a +11.5 efficiency differential (only 232 possessions so far) and is in the top 10% for both offense and defense.

133

With 133 catch-and-shoot threes this season Markkanen trails only Buddy Hield. But he can score with the ball in his hands too: of any NBA player who has used at least 25 possessions in isolation, his 1.38 points per possession is tops. (Play type data is imperfect, but that’s especially impressive since most top performers in that metric are guards.

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

A lot of the early talk about the Jazz revolved around how stiff the schedule was and how they’d be rewarded later. Looking at the schedule for the last 30 games, I’m not that sure:

• The Dallas win was the first encounter in a 5-game homestand, but that includes two against the Mavs (Luka will likely be back for the rematch) and three against teams who are probably better than their records.
• They then embark to play 10 of the next 13 on the road. The home games in this stretch are at least super winnable — SAS twice, and the current version of the Jazz should be favored against OKC. The 10 road games include mostly good opponents, with the best being Memphis, Dallas and Miami.
• Then they come home for four but it’s Boston (oof), Sacramento (argh), Portland (ehhh) and Milwaukee (gah).
• Four of their next five are away again, including at the Kings, Celtics and Nets. The home game is against Phoenix.
• That takes them to the last week of the season, when they have three home games before closing at the Lakers, but all those teams are likely still going to be fighting for something.

There are still a lot of winnable games in there for the Jazz as presently constituted. But if they drastically change their makeup in the next week and a half, the final 30 games could get a little rough.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

Jazz 120, Hornets 102: Lauri Markkanen. This is one of those time when it just sort of defaults to the All-Star hopeful. This was just a taking-care-of-business style win for the Jazz, and Markkanen piled up 25 points (on 14 shots) to go with 11 boards and a game-best +23, all without really breaking a sweat. Clarkson (18 points) and Conley (14) helped with the scoring load but weren’t super efficient, and Sexton was important off the bench for his ability to break the paint. Kessler also had a nice second half, and 13-and-9 overall.

Jazz 108, Mavs 100: Lauri Markkanen. I toyed briefly with Kessler, but decided that was getting too clever. Markkanen had 29 and five, and his 12 fourth-quarter points included back-to-back late buckets when Dallas made it close. Kessler’s case is that this one was essentially won with defense, and the Jazz guarded extremeley well with their starters on the court on Saturday, despite doing some unique, almost gimmicky stuff. Kessler played a big role in that: he held the Mavs to 1/6 shooting at the rim and he also got out and hedged high much more than we’ve seen so far. For a rookie big to be given a completely new assignment and not only not screw it up but basically be the reason it worked is phenomenal. Fourteen, 11 and five blocks for Kessler. Beasley and Sexton each hit timely shots, and Conley doled out 11 helpers.

Strong in Defeat:

• Jazz 124, Blazers 134: Collin Sexton. This could probably be Markkanen again, but sometimes I take the “best player on the floor” requirement less literally for losses than I do for Game Ball. Sexton was really important in this one, and most of the stretches where the Jazz were close in the second half involved Young Bull doing Young Bull things. He finished with 19 points, plus picked Lillard up for 90 feet. Sexton’s defense wasn’t exactly, um, *good*, but there was at least a sense of “I’m going to make it harder on you” when Sexton decided to climb in Dame’s jersey with him. Markkanen was probably better in macro terms with another efficient 24-point night, but with just 4 boards, it was easier to justify looking somewhere else. Talen Horton-Tucker and Rudy Gay both had their best games in a while, Conley had 10 assists, and Vanderbilt played important minutes on a night when Kessler struggled some.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

The second longest homestand of the season continues, with two games this week against teams who are probably better than their records.

Wednesday 2/1, Jazz vs. Raptors: The Raptors are a game out of the play-in, but have won three of five (and seven of 13), including blowout road wins in Sacramento and Portland last week. In other words, they’re hard to figure out. Per Cleaning the Glass, they have underperformed their expected win total (based on point differential) more than any team in the league, and largely that comes down to a 2-9 record in games decided by three or less. They’ve been bad defensively just about everywhere, but in particularly they don’t have any rim deterrence and they allow a higher proportion of corner 3s than anybody. Rudy Gay averaged 19.5 points over parts of two seasons as a Raptor, and brief Jazzman Juancho Hernangomez now comes off Toronto’s bench.

Friday 2/3, Jazz vs. Hawks: Atlanta is another confusing, underperforming team that was in shambles until winning six of the last 10 (including a late loss in Portland). Dejounte Murray has been the biggest catalyst to the turnaround, with 24-6-6 on 41.5% from deep, culminating a career-high 40 on Monday. Rumored Jazz target John Collins remains mired in a season-long shooting slump from outside, but nevertheless is posting above-average efficiency. Two-time All-Star Trae Young is also shooting under 32% from three for the season, but they are 18-11 in games when he drops at least two triples — and 7-14 when he doesn’t (including when he sits). He was out on Monday after turning an ankle.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

A couple of milestones to watch:

• Assuming Conley plays in both games this week, he’ll his 1,000 career games played. (He’s also 367 points away from joining the 15,000 club, giving him an outside shot of getting there this year.)
• Sexton is 85 points away from the 5,000 mark.
• Olynyk needs eight more threes for 800.
• Kessler’s next double-double will move him past Mark Eaton (1982-83) and Paul Griffin (1976-77) and all alone for the second most double-doubles by a rookie in franchise history.
• Beasley is on pace to break the Jazz record for 3-pointers made in a season (232).
• Clarkson needs 63 more 3-point shots — or 2.1 per game if he plays all 30 — to catch Gordon Hayward for fourth place on all-time Jazz triples. He averages 2.6 outside makes per game this season.

That’s another seven days in the books…

All-Star announcements on Thursday, trade deadline next week.