Salt City Seven: Spida’s Special Start, Rebounding Woes & More

Mitchell has been on a different level this season. (Adam Pantozzi via utahjazz.com)

Every week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

An important quote from Jazz players or personnel from the week

“He’s going to keep getting better each year. We’ve talked about it before, how professional he is and how humble he is and how committed he is. I have no doubt that he’s going to get better and better each year, and obviously he’s a huge part of this franchise for a long time..”

-Jazz forward Joe Ingles, speaking about teammate Donovan Mitchell on his weekly radio show

This Ingles quote isn’t too different from anything he has said about Mitchell in the duo’s time together, but it gives us an opportunity to pause and talk about how special the youngster’s start has been.

It would be easy to zoom in on consecutive losses and lose sight of what matters most to the Jazz’s eventual title hopes. Nothing would accelerate the Jazz’s path to real contention more than Mitchell ensconcing himself as one of the NBA’s truly elite guards.

And he’s knocking on the door.

Mitchell’s scoring average is up to a career-best 25.7 points per outing, but that’s not even the impressive or important part. The eye-popping accomplishment is that he has maintained his usage (30.2%, compared to 30.4% in his first two seasons) while taking his per-shot efficiency from a very average .539 all the way up to .611. He has cut his turnovers in half, his rebounding figures are up slightly, and he has probably been the most consistent perimeter defender on the team to date. 

The one reliable talking point that Mitchell’s detractors could point to as he was flourishing over his first two NBA seasons was his relative inefficiency. Now, on an admittedly small sample size, he’s one of the most efficient primary scorers in the entire NBA. Of the 14 players averaging at least 25 points per game up to this point, Mitchell is fifth in true shooting percentage, per B-Ref.

What’s even more remarkable is that Mitchell has experienced this renaissance while his new backcourt mate, Mike Conley, has struggled. The Jazz added Conley specifically to aid in Mitchell’s progression as a player by giving him more space to operate and sharing the creation responsibilities. So far, though, Conley is shooting under 32% from the field, and Mitchell’s distribution of open and wide open jumpers has remained roughly the same¹. Imagine what his numbers could look like once Conley rounds the corner on his Jazz learning curve.

We’ll see if this version of Mitchell holds. If it does, the Jazz are closer than anybody realizes to true contender status. They already have an All-NBA center and the league’s premier defensive presence in Rudy Gobert. If Mitchell keeps playing like this, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that the Jazz could soon have two of the game’s top 15 players. As of this writing, Mitchell literally is the top player in the league in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric, ranks seventh in Total Points Added², and comes out very well in various other all-in metrics like Win Shares³ and Value Over Replacement Player⁴.

Simply put, Mitchell is playing not just like an improving youngster or even like an All-Star — he’s playing like an absolute superstar. The Jazz are nearly 10% of the way into the season, and if this holds up, Mitchell’s leap matters far more than a couple of November losses will.

Stats that tell the story of the week or highlight a timely topic

That said, let’s talk about a couple of November losses, too.

41+44

Some of the same weak spots were on display in both of Utah’s losses this past week. Specifically, they handed their opposition way too many easy points via turnovers and offensive boards. Against Sacramento, they gave up 28 points off turnovers and 13 second-chance points in a game decided by a single point. Then in Los Angeles, they allowed the Clippers 15 points off their miscues and 29 second-chance points in a game that was tight until the final two minutes. That’s 85 total points that they surrendered over the weekend in those two categories.

75%

Overall, it would still be premature to say that Utah has a defensive rebounding problem. They’re ninth in the league in overall defensive rebounding percentage at 74.9%. However, that mark seems to be the bellwether for them; so far this season, they’re 4-0 when the DReb% is above 75%, 0-3 when it’s below.

103.3

The season is still a bit too young to make too big a deal of it, but so far the worst defensive rating on the team belongs to purported defensive specialist Royce O’Neale. It feels fair at this point to recognize that, of all Utah’s main rotation guys, O’Neale is the only one who really saw a huge increase in his role from year to year — and to wonder how it’s going. The Jazz are asking him to guard across four or five positions, all while playing in a starting role that’s new to him. So on plays like this lapse of concentration against Kawhi Leonard followed by a botched switch, it’s probably fair to give him the benefit of the doubt. His head is probably spinning given everything that his new role entails, and he’ll probably be OK in the long run. But it’s something to keep an eye on. 

-14

The Jazz knew last summer that they were sacrificing some of their rotation depth to upgrade the core. Now, with the health bug biting some of their key reserves, that vulnerability on the deep bench is being tested. Take for example Tony Bradley’s minus-14 in 13:57 of playing time against the Clippers. Turns out that Ed Davis’ injury might matter.

The Jazz were leading both times Bradley checked in, 16-12 in the first half and 59-51 later on. And by the end of both stints, the leads had evaporated. It was Bradley’s first real meaningful NBA minutes, so there are some encouraging signs in his stat line — 8 points, 5 boards — but he posted a -50 net rating, and the Jazz won the game by five while he watched, lost by 14 when he played. Take out his minutes, and Jazz played well enough to beat the Clips⁵.

In Bradley’s defense, fellow reserves Jeff Green and Georges Niang were invisible in L.A., and even Ingles didn’t really have it that night. But for now, Bradley is Utah’s only way to buy Rudy Gobert a quick rest, unless they go super-small or cut a player to call up another big. Both seem unlikely at the moment.

Breaking down the Xs and Os behind a Jazz score from the week

DHO Stagger Backcut

Just time for a quick-hitter this week. If you want to find a little bit of X-and-O wizardry, a good place to look is on the first Jazz possession after a timeout. And as is often the case with Quin Snyder’s after timeout stuff, perfect timing was the key to unlocking this easy basket for Mitchell.

The little bit of action that Emmanuel Mudiay, Ingles and Davis run is called a DHO stagger⁶. The Jazz run this all the time, to either side of the floor. But here, it’s almost a decoy. They actually use it almost the way a football team uses a reverse in the backfield: get the whole defense leaning one way and then attack the empty space.

Mudiay’s pitch to Ingles means that the big man defending the play has to stay high in case he has to hedge against a shot attempt, but what really makes this play design is Green’s cut, because that action run simultaneously with DHO stagger means that four defenders are occupied and the whole left side of the floor is empty.

Actually, Trevor Ariza is smart enough that he sniffs out the play and leaves Green in the corner to cut off the paint. But because all five Jazz players nailed the timing, it’s too late. By the time Ariza steps back into the paint, Ingles’ pass is already on its way to the high-flying Mitchell.

After each Jazz win, Twitter helps us decide who was that game’s MVP or most memorable performer

Utah’s 2-2 week means we have two Spaldings to dole out to the most dominant and/or memorable performers.

Jazz 96, Suns 95: Rudy Gobert

Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic took turns saving the Jazz’s bacon. Gobert did a bit more of his damage when it really mattered, but either guy could have easily taken this one. Gobert scored 15 points on just four shots, thanks to a superb night at the line. Ten of those 15 came in the fourth quarter, when he was also 6-for-6 on freebies. He was a team-best +13 for the night, owned the glass with 18 boards, and he absolutely dominated defensively down the stretch. After Phoenix went up by six late, Utah scored on seven of its next nine possessions, including a dunk and six free throws from Gobert, plus his steal that led to a breakaway dunk for Mitchell. For his part, Bogey bookended that same 16-7 run with 3-point plays, and had 29 on the night.

Jazz 110, Clippers 96: Mike Conley

Easy button. After converting just 20% of his shots and 15% from downtown in his first four Jazz games, Conley finally broke out of his slump against the shorthanded Clips. His 18-point third quarter, including 4-for-4 from deep, was probably enough to clinch it, especially since his explosion allowed the Jazz to take control with a 38-20 quarter. But just for good measure, Mountain Mike added to his case with 29 total points, five assists, two steals and an unreal 81% true shooting performance for the night. Mitchell’s 24 earn him an honorable mention, but the night was Conley’s.

Tracking the wild Western Conference postseason race and the Jazz’s place in it

It’s still early to try to make much sense of standings, which is why at this point of the year, I usually keep my eye on different rankings that are more concerned with macro team quality than individual wins and losses.

One of those is Simple Rating (or SRS), which is essentially a version of point differential that adjusts for schedule strength. Based on that metric, Utah comes in as a top-four team, along with both L.A. teams and the surprising Minnesota Timberwolves. At a +6.92, the Jazz’s SRS is a bit ahead of last season (+5.28) despite their middling 4-3 start.

FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR-powered model, which instead of looking at game outcomes uses projected player production as a starting point, also has the Jazz as an upper-echelon team in the West. It currently has Utah slotted behind the Rockets and Nuggets, but just ahead of the Lakers, Wolves and Clippers.

The Jazz also have the fifth best raw Net Rating in the conference, which is just another indicator that they’re still on track to have a great season despite consecutive losses this past weekend.

In other words, the models aren’t obsessing too much over the road losses in L.A. or the close defeat in Sacramento. It will be interesting to see if the Wolves and even Mavs sustain their strong starts. The Jazz will get their first look at Minnesota with a home-and-home set in two weeks, but won’t play the Mavs until late January.

A quick look at the Jazz’s next seven nights of action

The Jazz have an oddly light week of work ahead of them, with just two games coming in their next seven nights, and a rare weekend with both Saturday AND Sunday off.

Wednesady 11/6, Jazz vs. Sixers: The Sixers were the league’s last undefeated squad until they finally dropped a close one in Phoenix without the suspended Joel Embiid. He’ll be back in time for Wednesday’s Jazz-Sixers contest, though, which means Gobert’s hands will be full on both ends. Perhaps more concerning, Philly brings a supersized frontcourt that can give the suddenly smaller Jazz some troubles. The 6-foot-10 Al Horford will slide back to power forward upon Embiid’s return, making Tobias Harris, once a rumored power forward target for the Jazz, their 6-foot-8 starting wing. They also have length at both starting guard spots, with Ben Simmons and Josh Richardson. Utah is 0-4 against the Sixers in the Simmons-Embiid era. 

Friday 11/8, Jazz vs. Bucks: From the pan into the fire. The Bucks are the East’s other elite team, starting with the reigning MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Malcolm Brogdon left via free agency, but Milwaukee did a great job replacing him on the cheap by adding one-time Jazz guard Wesley Matthews. Matthews is a reasonable facsimile of Brogdon who is on a veteran-minimum deal. With George Hill and Kyle Korver coming off their bench, the Bucks have assumed the title of “Jazz East.” You’ll see a lot of familiar faces on Friday night.

Because after all, following a basketball team is supposed to be fun

We’ve known for a while now that the Jazz employ a particularly menschy group of guys. Ingles erased all doubt by proactively reaching out to this mother of a son with communication challenges who, after 21 years, asked a heartbreakingly honest question.

Kerry, there is 2 people in Utah that like your son a lot, my wife @RenaeIngles & I! We would love to invite you guys to a Jazz game!plz let me know & I’ll sort it out!

— Joe Ingles (@Joeingles7) November 1, 2019

Joe for the win. 

That does it for this week. We’ll be back next Monday with seven more drops of Jazz stuff for your eyes and brains.