Salt City Seven: The Kessler-Agbaji Show, Career Highs All Around, Tricky Play & More

Kessler’s growth has been and remains a major Jazz storyline. (Rick Bowner via sltrib.com)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

With eight games left in the Utah Jazz’s season and the focus very much having shifted to longer-term questions, it’s hard not to feel like the remainder of the season will primarily be about rookies Walker Kessler and Ochai Agbaji.

That’s not meant as a slight to anybody else. Lauri Markkanen remains superb when he plays, but the Jazz already know what they need to know from his 2022-23 campaign. Kelly Olynyk has been great as a connector, and Simone Fontecchio has had some nice games lately. Even Utah’s late-season pickups have given them a lot.

But with the Jazz dropping eight of their last 12 as veterans hop on and off the active list, the focus now is clearly more about defining the future. And that means, at least in part, continuing to push on the boundaries of what Utah’s two first-r0und rookies could develop into.

Kessler is a rarity: a first-year center who already impacts his team’s ability to play winning basketball. Of the 30 or so rookies who have played half the season’s games, Toronto’s Christian Koloko has a better net rating than Kessler’s +2.7, and Koloko has played half the minutes.

Opponents are still shooting just 51.6% on 488 rim attempts with Kessler’s defending. Brook Lopez is the only player with a better defensive success rate on at least as many rim contests, although Jaren Jackson Jr. is at an otherworldly 46.4% on only 83 fewer attempts defended. Those three are basically the holy trinity of rim protectors right now — an absolutely crazy sentence to write about a trio that includes a rookie.

His presence impacts the whole ecosystem, too. Kessler was promoted to full-time starter on January 10. Since then, the Jazz as a team allow 62% as a team at the rim, 2nd in the NBA over that span. They allowed a very average 66.9% before moving the kiddo into the role.

But that’s not all Kessler is, either. Over half of his 273 buckets this season have been non-dunks, and both his footwork and touch can often be eye-popping.

He’s got a nice little bag for a 7-footer, and yet even with the finesse and creativity, he’s shooting 72.2% from the field, the best figure in the league among players qualified for the leaderboard. When fans see that expanded offensive menu AND the Rudy Gobert-like rim defense numbers, it gets tempting to make declarations. Let’s make no mistake about it: Walker has a long road to go before we should be comparing him to a 4-time All-NBA, 6-time All-Defense stalwart who at his Jazz peak had no worse than a top-15 impact on winning. Nonetheless, Kessler’s first 70 pro games have been ridiculously encouraging. 

The excitement around Agbaji is less about a statistical résumé and more that he just seems to be in a very different place mentally than he was even a couple short months ago. He’s scoring more, sure, but the real harbinger is how willing he has become to be a central figure on possessions.

The same guy that used to rarely move from the corners is now frequently looking for ways to impact possessions. Even outside of scripted actions, the dude is just reading the game and going for it now.

The first play there is a common Jazz setup, but the read is all Agbaji. It’s a simple “horns twist,” but since the defenders appear unsure for a half second whether to switch the Kris Dunn pindown, Agbaji just goes to the ball and shows zero hesitation. The second one is even more assertive and gutsy. The design play is clearly a disguised flare screen for Fontecchio, and you even see Dunn about to fire the pass. But Agbaji, who has Malik Monk about two feet away, just decides, “Whatever, I can beat this dude.” He darts from a standstill into an open lane. In the final 130 seconds of a 1-point game against a top-3 seed.

Maybe that Fontecchio flare screen was a decoy, designed to lift Kessler’s defender away from the restricted area and create room for the cut. Reading the four other players, I doubt it, but even if it was, it’s still impressive that Agbaji is willing to go for it with Monk standing right in his jersey. Then he corrals an awkward pass and uses his strength to finish through the body of the defender. 

Agbaji was using 11.3% of Jazz possessions before All-Star weekend, meaning roughly half of his “share” if you were to divvy up possessions equally among five guys. Since the break, he hasn’t had a single game that low, and on the aggregate he’s up to 17.2%. His efficiency on those possessions is average-ish too (55.8%), because he’s an above-average finisher for his size both in the paint (57%) and from the perimeter (38%). But in a way that doesn’t even matter. Just the fact that he’s leaning into the offense that much is meaningful.

Confession time: it’s getting to the point where these two eyeballs are disproportionately following Kessler and Agbaji whenever they’re in the game. How those two develop is as relevant to the Jazz’s future as anything else that we could possibly find out in the next eight games, and it has made the experience of watching the post-trade Jazz way more interesting.

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

5

That’s the number of Jazz youngsters who notched (or tied) a career high this past week, just in scoring. On Monday, Agbaji’s 27 marked a new best, and Udoka Azubuike also pounded in 13. On Friday, Fontecchio scored 26. And on Saturday, Kessler had a 31-point blowup while 10-day signee Jarrell Brantley matched his previous career high with 13.

144

Both of the Jazz’s worst home defensive performances of the last 40 years in terms of raw points scored have come since the February trade. Minnesota poured in 143 points just minutes after the swap was announced on February 8, and Milwaukee came into Vivint and laid 144 on the Jazz on Friday. Those opponent outputs are the highest since Denver dropped 145 in the Salt Palace in 1982. Friday’s 28-point loss was Utah’s worst of the year.

710-423

Speaking of Friday’s game, the active players for Milwaukee came into that contest with a combined 710 career Jazz games under their belt — way more than the active Jazz players’ collective total of 423 career Jazz games to that point. That’s kind of hilarious. Bucks forward Joe Ingles obviously accounts for most of those: 590, more than all dressed Jazz players combined. Wesley Matthews and Grayson Allen also each spent a season in Utah, and that’s without counting Jae Crowder’s 107 Jazz games as he was inactive. No Jazz player who was available for the game had appeared in more than 68 games for the franchise before the start of Jazz-Bucks.

10

The Jazz didn’t offensive rebound well on Monday, didn’t turn the Kings over (5.8%, one of the lowest turnover rates of the entire NBA season per CTG), and got outscored by 9 from the 3-point line. So how did they upset the elite Kings offense without Markkanen? By guarding the rim. Sacto got just 10 field goals at the rim, and Domantas Sabonis in particular got just 11 points on 11 attempts from the field.

65%+ 

Five current Jazz players have played the lion’s share of their 2022-23 Jazz minutes just in the month of March: Dunn (79.8%), Damian Jones (86.4%), Johnny Juzang (88.9%), Juan Toscano-Anderson (65.0%) and of course 100% of Brantley’s minutes.

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

Somehow, there are still 12 teams within 3 games of the Jazz as we enter the final two weeks of the season.

Utah has slipped, but still has a dozen teams within reach.

The Jazz and the three teams immediately behind them now have practically identical schedule strength when it comes to average opponent record, but Indiana and Washington do have a home-heavier close than Utah.

In the other direction, the Jazz are now two wins back of the play-in, and since they have games remaining against both the Thunder and Lakers, they could theoretically close that gap. Technically because of their two remaining Laker games, the Jazz control their own destiny to make the play-in. But with Markkanen missing three of the last four and Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson still ailing, it might not trend that way for much longer.

Watch for a midweek update to this on Twitter, and then we’ll refresh this chart for you again next Monday right here.

Looking at the Xs and Os behind a successful play.

Will Hardy likes to call for very similar play setups but then leverage them in different ways. That way as soon as the defense goes, “Oh we’ve seen this play before,” there’s a wrinkle or variation that confounds them and gives the Jazz an advantage.

Take this play below, where the Jazz fake a “Spain pick-and-roll.”

“Spain” action is what you see as the play lines up here: Azubuike is going to screen for the ball handler, and Fontecchio is going to set a back screen on Dok’s guy. That’s Spain P&R, and the Jazz had just used it a few minutes earlier to get Talen Horton-Tucker a thunderous dunk, so Sacramento was liking very aware of it. 

When the Kings see it coming here on this Dunn-Dok-Fontecchio play, they immediately start planning for how they’re going to guard that action again. Monk starts to shade Dunn in case he has to pick up the ball. Sabonis hedges high, which means Trey Lyles has to be mindful of the potential Dok roll. Only there’s a plot twist: the Jazz aren’t actually running Spain.

As soon as Dunn has used Dok’s ball screen, the big man turns around and sets an absolute monster of a pindown for Fontecchio. The Jazz used the fake Spain setup to manipulate their visitors into leaving a good shooter wide open for a catch-and-shoot. Lyles still has both feet on the free-throw line when Fontecchio starts to elevate for the shot, and Monk is miles away because he was concerned with guarding the decoy action.

(And just in case the trickeration didn’t work, a well-timed cut by Olynyk leaves the weak corner empty so that Fontecchio also has the option of catching the big fella as he rolls into now suddenly very open space.) Just excellent play design.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

The Jazz’s 1-3 week made this a light bit of work for the Game Ball department, but we do have a few consolation awards to give out.

Jazz 128, Kings 120: Ochai Agbaji. This just had to be the rook, who was a game-best +18 with a career-high 27 that included several clutch moments. Without Markkanen, Och hit a go-ahead, pull-up three, then a cutting layup to extend the lead, then a FT-generating drive. All of that happened in a 2-minute span of a clutch game, and his seven points paced a 12-5 Jazz run that put them up for good. Even before that final stretch, Agbaji’s assertiveness and feel are just in a completely different realm now than earlier in the season. Kessler had another bonkers game too. He harassed Sabonis and held the Kings to 4/13 at the rim and 8/22 overall as the primary defender. Dunn had 18 points and 10 assists, Olynyk had a near triple double (19-10-8) and Azubuike had maybe his best game as a pro with 13 meaningful points.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 115, Blazers 127: Lauri Markkanen. Pretty easy call on this one. Markkanen’s third 40-point game of the season (on just 23 shots) was the only reason the Jazz stayed close to a hungry Blazer squad that had lost six straight.
• Jazz 116, Bucks 144: Simone Fontecchio. “Tech” was the game’s top scorer on a career-high night. Olynyk was a distant second here, but for a second straight game, everybody who played any meaningful minutes was widlly negative in +/-, so it’s easier to take the simplistic route.  
• Jazz 113, Bucks 121: Walker Kessler. Another easy one on Kid Kessler’s career night. He had 31 points (on 16 shots) for a new personal best, and he once again made the night harder on Domantas Sabonic (16 points on 14 shots). Agbaji’s 20 were meaningful, and Olynyk had another almost-triple-double at 17, 10 and 8. But Brantley might have been the story of the game — his good defense and timely 13 points were part of what the Jazz got back in it after trailing by double digits.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

The Jazz close with eight games in 14 nights — starting with four this week, each in a different state.

Monday 3/27, Jazz vs. Suns: Phoenix is in a weird limbo: they’re waiting on Kevin Durant but also don’t have the players (most notably Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson) they had to send to Brooklyn to get the 2-time champ. That combined with Deandre Ayton’s 4-game absence has left things a little thin for the Suns. That explains their 2-6 funk going into Monday. That said, Devin Booker has been superb — a career-high 28.2 scoring average — and Chris Paul gives them another clutch tactician despite some age-related decline. Ayton may be back for this Monday tilt anyway, but KD is targeting Wednesday.

Wednesday 3/29, Jazz @ Spurs: The Spurs have been somewhat competent (5-8) since their 16-game losing streak finally came to a close, but this is still not a very good basketball team. They sport the second-worst offense and worst defense in the association, and they’re somehow even worse when they’re resting guys. Top scorer Keldon Johnson and promising rookie Jeremy Sochan both sat in Boston and watched the Spurs get boatraced by 44. Zach Collins is having a nice little resurrection arc, and Devin Vassell can fill it up (18.8 ppg).

Friday 3/31, Jazz @ Celtics: The Jazz go from a bottom-two team on both ends of the court to facing the only team in the NBA that’s in the top five in both departments. And the Celtics don’t need to access their long-term memory to recall a 117-118 loss in Utah in mid March, so don’t expect them to be sleeping on the Jazz. They’ve won seven of nine, and like the Jazz they are very reliant on the three: almost half their attempts come from outside the arc.

Sunday 4/2, Jazz @ Nets: Speaking of Bridges, the former Sun is averaging 25.8 since being traded to Brooklyn, with 49-39-90 shooting splits and good defense. But Brooklyn has lost six of its last seven, including a Sunday misstep in Orlando. Identity-wise, they too are depending more on outside shooting since they remade their roster. No team has a higher percentage of their points coming from the perimeter since the trade deadline than Brooklyn’s 42.7%. There’s a cost to that, though: they also rank dead last in paint points over that same span. If Utah can help them have a cold shooting night on Flatbush Avenue, the door could be open.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

A lot of really fun stuff happened this week: 

• This might be my favorite Hardy moment yet.
• Speaking of Hardy, this this Andy Larsen article about Hardy’s pet aphorisms is one of the best NBA things I’ve read all season.
• This video from the Jazz was awesome even before assistant coach Jason Terry came in to offer a plot twist, just because Markkanen and especially Kessler have such a great sense of humor about stuff like this. That these two in particular have such fun chemistry is notable.

But the one that took the cake for this writer was the Jazz welcoming Ingles back.

Even in a season full of “Always A Jazz Man”-style tribute videos, this one was special. The beloved Aussie had the second longest Jazz tenure at the time of his February 2022 trade. He played the 12th most games in franchise history, set a club record for threes, was top-five in assists and top-10 in steals. He also stamped his personality all over the team, both before and during an elite stretch. He was a literal waiver-wire pickup who went on to influence Jazz basketball as much as all but maybe a dozen or so men who ever bounced a ball in Utah. 

Thanks for reliving another week of Jazz basketball with us!