SC7 (x2): Best/Worst of 2022, Clutch Woes, Flourishing Finnisher & More

January 2nd, 2023 | by Dan Clayton

The Jazz launch a campaign to get the ice cold Finnisher to the All-Star Game. (Via sltrib.com)

Let’s make it a double! Most Mondays during the regular season start with seven recurring features recapping the previous week, but holidays and family obligations delayed last week’s Salt City Seven, so this time around you get a double dose. We’ll still have seven sections highlighting the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland, but this week those sections will cover 14 days. 

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

A strange chapter of Jazz basketball concluded when the calendar flipped on Saturday night. In the long term history of the franchise, 2022 will have certainly mattered, one way or another.

The calendar year that just ended marked the end of something, but also the start of a process that will undoubtedly matter to future relevant versions of the Utah Jazz. There’s a lot of frustration over all of the things that didn’t come to fruition in 2022. There will also surely be payoffs, including some we can scarcely imagine yet.

So it’s inaccurate to describe the transition that occurred over the course of 2022 in solely fatalistic terms. This was as much a year of beginnings, to say nothing of the fact that there was indeed joy along the last version of the Jazz core was euthanized in a summer of asset-producing trades.

With that in mind, I looked to Jazz Twitter to crowdsource the list of best and worst 2022 Jazz memories. There were plenty of both, but here’s where one observer landed in terms of the defining moments at both ends of the joy scale.

Best Jazz Moment of 2022: Playoff Alley-Oop + “F@#% the Talk”

After much deliberation, it had to be this.

A quick 5-0 run by Luka Doncic had just put the Mavs up by four with under 40 seconds left. The Jazz were hanging on by a thread in that moment, both in the series and in the larger sense as their whole construction was under indictment after falling behind 2-1 to a Luka-less Mavs. Then Donovan Mitchell put back his own miss and was fouled, and Dwight Powell missed a pair of free throws. The stage was set.

The Jazz didn’t call timeout after rebounding Powell’s miss, and take it from someone who was in the building that those were some exhiliarating, stressful seconds as Rudy Gobert secured the ball, found Mitchell, set a brush screen for him at the free throw line, and then bee-lined to the rim.

It was lost on precisely no one that the best moment of the squad’s 2022 playoff run involved Mitchell trusting Gobert as multiple defenders came to the ball on the right elbow. That prompted Gobert’s “(eff) the talk” in the walkoff interview, and for at least 48 more hours there was hope for the series, hope in that relationship, hope in everything the Jazz had spent the last five seasons constructing around those two.

Of course, it wouldn’t last, but that moment was as pure as the joy got all year long in the Utah fan base. Fun stuff happened before then, but the weight of expectations kind of muted it. Fun stuff happened later, but never in moments quite so meaningful.

Other suggestions from Twitter for most joyous Jazz moment in 2022:

  • More than one person said that their best Jazz memory from 2022 was the Gobert trade — not because they wanted to see him go, but because it signaled that the Jazz were serious about setting a new course, and because the haul was so enormous.
  • Someone mentioned the 2021-22 Jazz’s peak, at 28-10 after a road win against the Nuggets without Gobert. They’d lose their next four before winning again in Denver, but right at that moment it was almost unfathomable that the team would be anything but a capital-C contender. In a way, it reminds me of the 2010-11 Jazz improving to 27-13 in mid-January and the fan base having no idea that they were weeks away from a coach stepping down and a superstar being traded.
  • Multiple people mentioned the improbable, unmistakeably fun 10-3 start by the new-look team, a “change of vibe” as @ExpertBrah put it. A few mentioned the season opener specifically. One, a friend of SCH, got even more specific, referring to the way Collin Sexton revved up before going right at a 2-time MVP in that debut win by the new-era Jazz.
  • Other specific moments from the Jazz’s raucous 2022-23 start were mentioned: like Kelly Olynyk’s keeper for a game-winning layup and Jordan Clarkson’s immortal rim hang against the Lakers.
  • For the very X-and-O attentive Mark Russell Pereira, it was “that one time they successfully executed a peel switch.” I think Mark is at least 60% kidding, but given how much of the Jazz’s failings from 2019-2022 came down to defending collectively in space, maybe it’s not a bad call out.
  • Someone mentioned the joy of getting a bunch of exciting prospects like Lauri Markkanen and Malik Beasley, without having to see Clarkson go.

Worst Jazz Moment of 2022: Ingles Down

Joe Ingles in many ways was the embodiment of so much of what made us fall in love with the 2019-2022 Jazz. Obviously Gobert and Mitchell defined that era on the court, and guys like Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic were the secondary stars that gave them more firepower. But Ingles was a perfect representation of everything that made it all congeal, and a metaphor for the the Jazz’s identity as unassuming, overlooked, flawed, but still very potent contenders.

So watching him go down in a heap and then writhe around on the court before leaving on a stretcher — just terrible.

Turns out, it would be even worse than that, because while it wasn’t fully apparent at the time, Ingles’ injury would ultimately spell doom for that generation of Jazz basketball. His on-court versatility was sorely needed as the Jazz limped down the stretch, but even more important was the way he helped keep a fragile locker room balanced. 

Other candidates for worst 2022 Jazz moment:

  • There were obviously multiple mentions of the Jazz-Mavs series, from Utah going down 2-1 before Doncic had played a minute, to the way Jalen Brunson confounded the defense, to just the feeling of inevitability.
  • There were obviously a ton of fall-from-ahead losses to zero in on, but the one multiple Jazz fans mentioned as taking the wind out of their sails was the April 2 loss at GSW. The Jazz led by 16 (with the ball!) at around 7:00 left, and then were stunned as the Warriors –without Steph Curry — dropped six threes to take the lead with an 18-0 run. That killed the Jazz’s chances at a top-3 seed, but really it was one of many losses you could choose from to point to the Jazz’s bad habit of collapsing despite late leads.
  • Folks mentioned the Jazz’s apparent inability or unwillingness (note: I still think it was the former) to meaningfully improve the roster at the trade deadline, after Ingles had gone down. Danny Ainge would later bemoan to the Jazz being stuck from an asset standpoint.
  • Nobody mentioned it, but an onslaught of COVID-19 illness and other injuries derailed the Jazz after the 28-10 peak mentioned above. They would never be whole again after early January, and it just killed the belief — again, even though the team was fighting for the No. 1 seed before the bad luck started.

A year of highs and lows, for sure. Beyond that, 2022 will be our reference point for years to come, the before-and-after line separating eras.

In the words of Jazz players/people

“There’s different things in each game that you could look at… The margins of winning and losing in this league are incredibly small.

Being emotional is very easy, anybody can do that. But being able to step back and look at the game with a little bit of a cold heart, that’s what they pay us to do, so that we understand what we need to do better every night. And that’s whether we win or we lose.”

-Jazz coach Will Hardy

After four straight losses, the Jazz are now 7-14 since their impressive 12-6 start. But they’re still in nearly every game: 13 of those games in the 7-14 stretch were close in the final five minutes, per the NBA’s “clutch” stat triggers, and the Jazz were 5-3 in the ones that weren’t close.

In other words, if you zoom out, this is still a team that can compete on almost any given night. The three losses that were close were at Cleveland (no Sexton or Kelly Olynyk), at Milwaukee (no Sexton), and at Golden State (no Conley).

Still, it’s undeniable that the Jazz’s luck has changed in close contests. They were 8-3 in their first clutch games, 2-11 since. They’ve also lost four straight games that were within five in the final five minutes.

To Hardy’s point, the thing about clutch games is you could easily change the outcome of a play or two and flip the outcome — a rebound here or there, Tyler Herro missing at the buzzer, etc.  — but it wouldn’t really change a ton about the predictive value of that game or the macro assessment of how the team played. 

“Losing hurts and it should hurt,” Hardy added after Saturday’s loss. “We’re here to try and win. Our guys are sticking together and competing every day. It’s really on us as a staff to maintain poise and perspective on what’s actually going on in these games so we don’t end up overfocusing on a couple of plays.”

As it stands, the Jazz are now tied for the 9th worst clutch win percentage, and the culprits are clear: since November 20, their defensive rebound percentage, free throw shooting and turnover rate are all sub-average in the clutch.

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

54.9%

I promised we’d keep track of Markkanen’s unexpected excellence at the defensive rim, and as expected, it has regressed a bit toward the mean. He’s still holding foes to 58.3% shooting at the rim, which is lower than league average, and better than all but 11 players with at least as many rim contests as him.

But Utah has a new prodigy when it comes to paint protection: Walker Kessler has now guarded the 14th most rim attempts of anybody in the league (206) despite a relatively low minute total. He’s holding guys to 54.9% in close. Only two rim protectors in the league (Brook Lopez and Nic Claxton) have a lower rim defense figure than Kessler on at least as many attempts guarded.

-9.2

More on Kessler: the defense is 9.2 points better overall per 100 non-garbage time possessions when Kessler is on the court versus when he’s off, and opponents’ efficiency at the rim drops by 5.4%.

53.1/48.0/90.5

Markkanen just completed a full month at 50-40-90 while averaging 26.8 points per game. So far this season, only Curry, Mitchell, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have had 12-game stretches of 50-40-90 shooting on at least 26 points per outing.

6+

Conley is at the other end of the shooting spectrum, with just 48.3% true shooting (league average usually tracks right around 57%) since returning from injury. But he has had seven straight games with 6+ assists, his second such streak of six games or more. That marks the first time a Jazz player has had two separate streaks of six or more games with 6+ assists in a season since Deron Williams was traded in February 2011.

+7.5

Even during this 4-game skid, the Jazz’s net rating with Sexton on the court has been +7.5. (The bad news: it’s -14.4 with Jarred Vanderbilt on during this slide.)

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

With a little more than a month left before the NBA’s trade deadline, we’ll start focusing a bit more on the options available to the Jazz.

For now, here’s a reminder of how pretty the club is sitting when it comes to first-round assets. Nobody has more guaranteed first-round capital than Utah, which has sevent incoming picks guaranteed to convey plus at least six of their own selections.

If the Jazz decided to go into buyer mode before the 2023 draft, they could trade up to 10 total firsts. That’s because they are required to keep at least one of their three picks in 2023, since they have an outgoing obligation in 2024-2026. Of the 11 remaining picks they own between 2025 and 2029, they’d need to hold onto at least one from each of the 2025, 2027 and 2029 drafts, at least for now.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

We have two weeks of game balls to give out as we play catch-up, but unfortunately the Jazz’s 2-5 fortnight means just two Wilsons.

Jazz 126, Pistons 111: Lauri Markkanen. Whoa, Lauri. The Finnisher tied his career high (set earlier this season) with 38 points, and he did it on 87.3% true shooting (What?!). Clarkson also carried the Jazz for a stretch, and Vanderbilt was really important, especially in the third as the Jazz pulled away. Vando finished with 18 points (tied a season high), 13 boards, six assists and two steals. But Markkanen’s night was the one that caused heads to turn. Easy call.

Jazz 120, Wizards 112: Collin Sexton. On the surface, this should be a close call between Young Bull and max scorer Beasley (25 points, 4 steals). In reality, it wasn’t that close. Sexton came into the game and sneezed 11 points, plus he was responsible for the buzzer-beating 3 that started an 11-0 Jazz run that effectively decided the game AND a bunch of fun moments as he sparred with Bradley Beal. Generally I have a soft “rule” that it’s hard to win this award in a 17-minute sparkplug type performance, but I don’t even care this time. Sexton is the guy we’ll think of when we remember this game in a month: 18 points on just seven shots and in just 17 minutes, and just instantly broke the defense down. Walker Kessler’s presense (and 14-and-12), Markkanen’s 21, and of course Beasley were also considered. 

Strong in Defeat:

  • Jazz 99, Cavs 122: Lauri Markkanen. Nobody played particularly well — hence the blowout. This basically had to be either Markkanen (24) or Clarkson (23), and the former was far more efficient. But again, after a blowout like this, you could throw a dart and not be too wrong (or too right).
  • Jazz 122, Spurs 126: Jordan Clarkson. Conley was the cuter story, at least through the first half. He had a 17-5-6 line with three steals, but he did most of that in the first 24, so this probably had to be one of Markkanen/Clarkson again. I went Clarkson mostly to spread the love, but also because 25-7-4 is a pretty tasty line (as was Lauri’s 32-and-12) and because he had a bigger hand in making it interesting late. After the Spurs went up 14 with three minutes left, JC had a putback, assisted a three, then drilled back-to-back triples of his own.
  • Jazz 107, Warriors 112: Lauri Markkanen. A fairly easy choise, despite his quiet second half. He scored 23 of his game-high 29 before intermission, and he also hauled in 16 rebounds for the night. It would have been nice if he did better than 2-for-8 shooting in the second act, but in terms of total impact nobody quite touched him. Clarkson carried the torch after halftime (15 of his 22), and Conley’s 10-assist night deserves mention.
  • Jazz 125, Kings 126: Walker Kessler. I was tempted to throw this Markkanen’s way, largely for symbolic reasons since he was so gutted after missing a would-be game-winner. The dude has no reason to feel ashamed after a 36-point performance, and giving him this fake honor could have been my small way of saying so. Instead, I went with Walker Kessler: +17, 5-for-5, 11-and-8, and an absurd 92.2 DRtg.
  • Jazz 123, Heat 126: Lauri Markkanen. Beasley’s five threes were nice (14 of his 17 were before halftime), Clarkson was solid, and another nice defensive game by Kessler earned him another close and a 30-minute night. But ignoring Markkanen’s 29 and 14 might be a little too cute.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

Let’s hope the Jazz enjoyed their nice Christmas break, because a 4-in-6 chaser awaits them.

Tuesday 1/3, Jazz vs. Kings: The Jazz get a quick rematch after their gut-wrenching 1-point loss from last week. More importantly, they get something far rarer and more valuable: multiple days off at home with no travel. I’ll defer to the experts (Ken) at JazzTravelNotes, but I believe this is the first time since December 4-6 that the Jazz have had consecutive home games with multiple days off in between. As for the Kings, they come to town sitting in a playoff spot, which is all the more improbable given their 0-4 start to the season. They’re top five in shooting efficiency.

Thursday 1/5, Jazz @ Rockets: The Rockets are, in a word, bad. Entering Monday night, they have the second-worst offense and third-worst defense. That said, they are capable of catching lightning in a bottle, as evidenced by their impressive list of stunners: Milwaukee, Philly, Phoenix (twice) all in the last month. Their leaders are former lottery guards Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr., but both have below-average per-shot efficiency.

Saturday 1/7, Jazz @ Bulls: Chicago is one of the NBA’s weirdest teams this season, and now they have some Zach Lavine drama to accompany their up-and-down results on the court. Meanwhile, DeMar DeRozan has been superb, averaging 26-5-5 and creating a higher proportion of his own looks than almost anybody. He also takes the highest proportion of midrange shots in the league: 69% of his attempts per Cleaning the Glass. This will be a back-to-back for the Bulls, who have to come from Philadelphia while the Jazz hang out and wait for them.

Sunday 1/8, Jazz @ Grizzlies: This will be a study in opposing styles, because Memphis’ defense is ELITE, but the one thing they have been willing to give up is the area where Utah thrives. The Grizz have the best defensive eFG% in the league and allow just 60.2% at the rim (1st), and 39.2% from 4 to 14 feet (2nd), per CTG. But they’ll give up threes. So if Utah can dial it in from deep, they have the tools to make this interesting. The Grizz are 11-4 since the start of December, and Ja Morant (27-6-8) is playing like a fringe MVP candidate and a walking highlight reel.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

This is pretty fun.

LeBron James and Nikola Jokic will be in as frontcourt starters in the West. Zion Williamson should be a lock, and Anthony Davis probably will be unless he can’t play.

That leaves four more spots if all wildcards go to frontcourt guys. Minnesota’s disappointing record might keep their two bigs out, and it’s been a weird year for Draymond Green. Andrew Wiggins won’t repeat unless some weird fan vote stuff happens again, but Domantas Sabonis, Jerami Grant and Brandon Ingram are all 20-plus scorers who have strong arguments. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Aaron Gordon are getting some buzz, but they’re probably below that other tier in terms of raw numbers.

It could help Markkanen with the coach voting that Utah is hosting. Utah’s surprising start also could help, but that’s probably less true the longer Utah’s slide lingers. It’ll be close.

Happy New Year, Jazz fans! Wishing all of our SCH friends a safe, healthy, productive and otherwise memorable 2023.

Comments are closed.

© 2024 Salt City Hoops. All Rights Reserved.