SC7: Lauri’s an All-Star, Trade Season Truths, Frequent Trade Partners & More

Markkanen is the first player to appear in the All-Star game in his inaugural Jazz season since 1980. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

We’ve nearly arrived at the next big inflexion point in the Utah Jazz’s rebuild: the 2023 NBA trade deadline.

Before the season, a common joke on Al Gore’s internet was that the professional basketball team in Salt Lake City should be called the Utah Trade Assets because its guys were mostly viewed as rather transient commodities. Then they spent the first two months of the season shocking everybody into the realization that they were real-ass basketball players, which in a way complicates this Thursday’s deadline (at 1pm MST) even more. It turns out that the renaissance, development or arrival of so many of these Jazz dudes simultaneously makes them appealing in a basketball sense — and also really good trade chips.

Jazz brass have referred to as a “fact-finding mission,” and that process takes more than a few months. But certain discoveries have already been made that give decision-makers the option of thinking about what the next round of information-gathering could look like.

For example, we know now that Lauri Markkanen is a full-fledged All-Freaking-Star. That is a huge piece of information we didn’t have on Halloween, and it matters greatly to how the project continues. We’ve learned that Walker Kessler is already an impactful presence, and Ochai Agbaji has a pathway to a lengthy NBA career. Collin Sexton is fun as hell, even though the need for some refinement in his game is equally obvious. In other words, the Jazz know enough about those four to know they want to know more.

We also know that guys like Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt are fine but probably inessential in the big picture. There is a reason these two are mentioned in practically every Jazz-related rumor: they are role players who likely won’t define Utah’s reality in 2-4 years, and that potentially makes their value in today’s marketplace too good to ignore.

We’ve also figured out that Mike Conley’s decline as an athlete is real, but so is his impact on the on-court product, not to mention the environment in which other guys are developing. We’ve learned (or been reminded) that Jordan Clarkson injects something into the veins of the team that nobody else can, but that his Jazz future is in doubt. We’ve learned that Kelly Olynyk, while flawed, affords the Jazz some interesting style-of-play options.

Those are some of the truths we’ve learned about this specific team and these specific players. There are other, broader truths about the whole trade arena that are probably worth remembering with now just three days left in the transaction window:

GMs largely don’t negotiate via the Hoopshype rumors page. The assertion that a team leaked a rumor to “send a message” to another GM always makes me chuckle. There are 30 GMs in the league, and they all have about 47 different ways to connect to each other instantaneously. The idea that a GM would call a reporter, plant a rumor, wait for the rumor to be published and then hope his counterpart sees it is so inefficient compared to the alternative: text the other guy and say what you want to say. The two sides can exchange volumes of information in the time it would take to tease out a protracted exchange through Woj’s or Shams’ Twitter account, and operating that way could also hurt relationships in a business where there are finite actors you’re going to need to engage with later.

Maybe GMs strategically chat with media members for the purpose of putting pressure on the other side, but even that is likely overplayed. My guess is most stuff that a GM leaks during negotiations is not aimed at the other side at all; it’s more so that when a trade eventually does (or doesn’t) go down, there are people with the fan base’s attention who understand their rationale and know what actually was or wasn’t on the table.

The trade discussions we hear about might be the ones that have already lost steam. Execs are probably far more likely to call a reporter and discuss last week’s negotiation with a team than the more promising dialogue happening today. And to the degree that they do share details about active negotiations, it’s usually protected by the caveat of, “but you can’t report this yet, we’re still working on it.” That means that the stuff we read on the rumors page is quite often a recap of what was being discussed, not what’s currently being discussed. It’s still super interesting in terms of assessing value, but it might not be a reflection of real-time haggling.

That said… things can change really quickly. A lot of deals are dead right up until they are not anymore. It’s not uncommon for discussions to dead end, but get an accelerated boost later because both teams already have a sense for what the other wants and how they value certain players/pieces. So now if one party’s situation changes to the point where it makes sense to revisit something, you’re starting those conversations (to mix sports metaphors) on the 50-yard line because you’re already past some of the foundational value-setting talks.

Some rumors are patently false; others start with a speck of truth. I told the story last summer of when a legitimate rumor started making its way into two fan bases in the summer of 2021. Once people got a hold of this actual deal that was close to happening (a protected 2nd for Eric Paschall), they started guessing what else might be attached. It consumed Jazz and Warriors Twitter for a couple of days as folks threw around versions of the deal that were way more involved than the boring, true version. That’s just a reminder that some of what you hear might start from a place of truth but then grow way beyond that in the world of Fanspo, speculation and Twitter GMs. 

There are different levels of “untouchable.” The Jazz, for example, have multiple guys who are functionally off limits, but that means pretty different things. Markkanen is not going to be traded because his All-Star status means he’s already better than all but like 20 healthy NBA players, and those 20 are all some combination of unavailable, undesirable, or unlikely to be part of the Jazz’s future. Agbaji might be functionally “untouchable” too, but it’s because the Jazz are ultra curious about him and the structure of rookie contracts gives them 6-7 years of control while they see what he is. There are maybe 10 guys the Jazz would consider trading Markkanen for, and most of those are pipe dreams like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Luka Doncic. The list of guys they’d consider trading Agbaji for is… longer than that. But I do understand the shorthand, where untouchable just means that no reasonable offer would be enough.

Knowing your newsbreakers is key. We’re going to collectively spend a ridiculous amount of brain cells over these next three days analyzing stuff that comes from people with, uh, very little track record on being right. Instead, pay attention to who the real newsbreakers are, both at the national level and reporters who are extremely well connected at the team level. It’s generally a good idea to be skeptical until you’ve heard something from one of those people who is in the business regularly of breaking NBA transactional news (and being right about it). (Also, you know, don’t fall for fakes.)

In the words of Jazz players/people

“Just all the experiences of the past. You remember everything you’ve gone through in your journey. Everything happens for a reason… Of course (I was) happy when it happened, but then slowly started thinking: oh, kind of had to go through that stuff to get here.”

-Markkanen on what he thought about when he learned of his All-Star selection

Here’s a fun fact: the last time a Jazz player made the All-Star team in his first Jazz season was in 1979-80 (Adrian Dantley).

What Markkanen has done stepping into a new environment, a new role and performing at an All-Star level is really unique. NBA players make All-Star leaps all the time, but usually in the context of a growing role in the same system. It’s unusual to see a jump like his — from 14.8 ppg to 24.9 and from .582 to .667 true shooting, from one season to the next — while a guy simultaneously is changing zip codes, coaching staffs, systems, teammates, etc. And according to the Finnish forward, it wasn’t even necessarily his objective when the season started.

“I didn’t really write down ‘All-Star’ as my goal for the year,” Markkanen explained in his first press availability after the selection. “Staying in the moment, just trying to do whatever it takes to get some wins and build this thing with this team — that’s what I was worried about. All-Star didn’t really cross my mind, I just came here to work.”

Markkanen also added that he took time to thank each team member and Jazz staffer individually for helping create the results that enabled his selection as a first-time All-Star. “It wouldn’t happen without them.”

Markkanen becomes the Jazz’s 16th all-time All-Star, and the first ever Finnish player to claim the honor. 

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

29.0

Markkanen’s season-long averages are impressive enough on their own, but since December 20 he is at 29.0 points, 19.4 points and above the 50-40-90 shooting thresholds. 

+6.0, +5.1

Interestingly, the players the Jazz miss the least when they’re off the court are the two most centrally involved in trade rumors: they’re +6.0 per 100 when Beasley sits, +5.1 when Vanderbilt sits, the two highest off-court figures on the team. Those guys clearly offer value — Beasley has the fourth most catch-and-shoot threes in the NBA this season, and Vando is a solid ball mover for his position and an often frenetic defender.

65%

Agbaji is now up to 65% in the paint, including 20-of-31 in the restricted area and 6-for-9 elsewhere in the lane. He’s also now a 51.4% corner 3-point shooter. Those are all really encouraging figures. (Just don’t ask him to shoot above the break: 18.2%, yikes.)

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

Let’s quickly assess the impact of recent NBA news on the Jazz’s likelihood of moving up (or down) the standings.

• The Kyrie Irving trade probably doesn’t do too much to impact the Jazz’s playoff odds or lottery changes. Dallas already projected higher than Utah in most forecasting systems. A much bigger question for Dallas is how long will Doncic be out.
• However, Irving going to the Mavs means he is not going to either L.A. team or to Phoenix. Those are teams that are trapped in that same 3-through-13 morass with the Jazz, so we’ll see what they do by Thursday that could influence’s the Jazz’s likelihood of jockeying in either direction.
• Steph Curry’s injury news is legitimately important to the Jazz. The Warriors are a half game ahead of the Jazz and now their MVP could miss “multiple weeks.” That could legimately change GSW’s approach to their final 29 games.
• Two weeks ago, the Pelicans said Zion Williamson would be re-evaluated in two weeks. They went 7-2 in their first nine games without Zion, but with secondary stars like Brandon Ingram missing time too, they have shot down the standings with a 4-13 stretch.
• Memphis is another team that has been skidding (1-8), but they’re pretty far outside of Utah’s range anyway. 

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

Just two games to react to this week: one win to recognize and one consolation prize to give out.

Jazz 131, Raptors 128: Walker Kessler. Without a doubt, the youngster was the story of the game, with five first-quarter blocks on the way to a 17-14-7 night on 8/10 shooting. He also has the paint contest that sealed the win in the final minute, and for the game held the Raptors to X-for-X effectiveness at the rim. He was just bonkers. The main hesitation in giving this to Kessler is that it means we can’t reward one of Conley’s best games of the season, a 19-point, 8-assist night with 9-of-9 shooting at the line. Also, the fact that Markkanen didn’t make my top two despite 28 points and 13 boards is just a sign of how spoiled we are. As well as the kiddo and vet played, the Jazz don’t survive without Markkanen’s second half: 17 points on seven FGA.

Strong in Defeat:

• Jazz 108, Hawks 115: Mike Conley. Clarkson shot the Jazz back into the game in the last first half, and Markkanen had a 25-and-10. Conley’s season-high 20 were just slightly more meaningful to me. All three of those guys had 8-point fourth quarters as the Jazz made it close again, but Conley also had five of his eight assist in that period. He scored or assisted on 22 of Utah’s 30 in those 12 minutes.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

The second longest homestand of the season continues, with two games this week against teams who are probably better than their records.

Monday 2/6, Jazz vs. Mavericks: A Sunday blockbuster left the Mavs looking quite different, but new arrivals Kyrie Irving and Markieff Morris won’t be through the trade process in time to suit up in Salt Lake. Luka Doncic is also out due to injury — the Mavs are 0-7 without him this season — and so are a couple of stretch bigs, so Dallas will be pretty light on bodies. So throw out recent streaks, momentum, or stats about their style. The version of Dallas that rolls in on Monday will be pretty unique. Christian Wood may come back from an 8-game absence. If he doesn’t, then Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.7) and Josh Green (8.1) will be Dallas’ top available scorers.

Wednesday 2/8, Jazz vs. Wolves: Gobert’s second visit to Salt Lake since a July trade comes with Minnesota surging a bit, at 13-6 in the calendar year. Gobert’s net rating is an impressive +7.8 over that stretch (he did miss four of those games), and Anthony Edwards has been putting up 26-6-5. Karl-Anthony Towns still hasn’t played since being carried off the floor in late November, and the Wolves will hit Utah on a back-to-back, coming from Denver. This will be the final Jazz-Wolves matchup of the season. It currently stands 2-1 Utah with each team weirdly winning its road encounters.

**NBA trade deadline** – 2/9 at 1:00 p.m. MST: If the Jazz follow their typical pattern for travel, their flight to Toronto will take off with time still on the NBA’s trade clock. That could lead to an awkward 4-hour ride if someone is included in a last-minute deal and learns about it mid-air.

Friday 2/10, Jazz @ Raptors: The confusing Raptors just concluded a 4-3 road trip when they stunned Memphis by erasing a 15-point lead. Utah got a little taste of that unpredictability last week when all of that frisky length on Toronto’s roster forced a tight finish after Utah led by double figures. Utah and Toronto are second and (tied for) third, respectively, in the number of games decided by three points or less this season; Utah’s 8-6 record is about the coin toss you’d expect on those photo finishes, but Toronto’s 3-10 mark is literally the worst in the league in such games. Toronto could also look different by Friday, as guard Fred VanVleet is being pursued by multiple contenders, and swingman OG Anunoby has been the subject of trade rumors.

Saturday 2/11, Jazz @ Knicks: The Knicks were 3-7 in their last 10, but then stormed from behind to beat a healthy Sixers team on Sunday. Like the Jazz, they’ll be covering a short distance (from Philly) on a back-to-back for this game. Mitchell Robinson is approaching his re-evaluation date after thumb surgery, and other than that they’re mostly healthy, although RJ Barrett was a late scratch on Sunday due to illness. They’re the only team in this year’s NBA that has three guys averaging 20+ (Barrett, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle) who have all played at least 80% of their team’s games.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

We leave you with a little trade week trivia.

A look at the teams with whom the Utah Jazz have dealt most (and least) often.

That’s it for this edition! We’ll see how different the team looks by next week’s Salt City Seven.