The Draft: the Jazz Should Take a Home Run Swing Tonight

History tells us that the Jazz will have a chance to draft a strong rotation player on Thursday night with the 30th pick. History also tells us that they will have a hard time doing so.

I hesitate to putting too much effort into talking about today’s draft for the Utah Jazz, because it feels like they will probably attach their original pick and move salaries. With Mike Conley’s impending return to the team, the Jazz are transitioning towards cutting unnecessary salaries and cheaply fortifying the roster. The Jazz have also lately been very aggressive in acquiring late and middle second round picks.

No matter where the Jazz draft their players, their goal should be the same: find the best available player that can help as soon as possible. That sounds easy enough in theory, but the draft code hasn’t been cracked by any NBA decision makers. Several players drafted in the lottery will never play meaningful minutes in the league, and a handful of picks in the 30s or 40s should become rotation players. If you are a Jazz fan, I suggest that you don’t look at the team’s draft history. From Enes Kanter to Nigel-Williams-Goss, there have been so many misses. The real draft day wins were trades for Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert but those picks alone make up for dozen’s of strikeouts. But let’s put it this way: there is only one Jazz player (Mitchell) playing major rotation minutes that was acquired on draft day in the last 6 years.

It’s hard to pinpoint the Jazz’s shortcoming in their draft style, but looking at their list of selections, one thing sticks out to me: a general lack of athleticism. Maybe that just needs to change.

How Quickly Can a Rookie Help the Team?

The Jazz are ready to contend for a title now, and they only have Donovan Mitchell under team control for 4 seasons. They need to put players on the floor that can help win right now. But is that a realistic expectation of a rookie?

Malcolm Brogdon is probably the most impactful rookie of the last 10 seasons drafted after pick 20. (Gary Dineen via Bucks.com)

In the last 5 seasons, only 9 rookies taken in the draft picks 20-60 have played more than 13 minutes per game in the playoffs. More succinctly, a late drafted rookie playing rotation minutes in the playoffs is rare, but possible. To add to the rarity of it, however, only Desmond Bane (30th pick), Matisse Thybulle (20th pick), Malcolm Brogdon (36th)  and OG Anunoby (23rd) played well in the playoffs.  All of those, except for Anunoby played four seasons in college.

But even though Desmond Bane seemed to play well in the playoffs, it’s hard to say that he was super impactful. Immanuel Quickley (25th) had a great rookie season, but shot just 30% from the field in 15 mpg against a defensively limited Hawks team. Tyrese Maxey (21st) shot well from the field but only 30% from three. But you’d consider his rookie playoffs a huge success. If you can wait one year for a rookie to become a sophomore, their ability to impact the playoffs increases exponentially. Nic Claxton (31st) played 10 effective minutes per playoff game this season. Both Derrick White (29th) and Pascal Siakam (27th) had strong playoffs in the second year. Siakam became the 3rd best player of a title winning team by year 3. For my money and without science to back me up, I count 60 players taken after the 20th pick since 2011 that would crack the current Jazz rotation in their first 3 years. One of those is current Jazzman Bojan Bogdanovic (31st), who didn’t come to the NBA until 3 years after he was drafted, but did play 34 mpg in his first playoffs.

Mathematically speaking, there will be 4-6 guys at the 30th pick or later, that will turn out to be helpful to their NBA teams in the playoffs. Those aren’t great odds, but it’s certainly hopeful.

So Who Should the Jazz Draft?

If I knew the answer to that question, I would be working in a front office, but let’s just talk about the process the Jazz might go through in evaluation. Generally speaking, I think the Jazz tend to draft offensively skilled players and hope that they can defend at an NBA level. That’s true of Enes Kanter and Alec Burks; It’s the case with Trey Burke, Rodney Hood, Trey Lyles, Tony Bradley, Grayson Allen and Justin Wright Foreman. There isn’t even college tape of Elijah Hughes playing NBA style defense, but his offensive skills are so intriguing, that you wonder how much his defense mattered in his evaluation. My main critique of the last several Jazz picks, is that they draft players who lack athleticism and the tools to ever defend at an above average ability in the NBA.  We have years and years of evidence that if you can’t defend at an NBA level, you just can’t play effectively in the post season. Full stop. We weren’t good enough defensively to beat the Clippers. Even with a healthy team, the unspoken assumption is that the Jazz would have been able to outscore their opponents.

Just tell Jazz fans that we drafted Elijah Hughes in 2021 and see how many people notice. Photo by SneakinDeacon CC BY-SA 2.0

That isn’t to say that drafting a defensive first guy with limited offense, is going to work out every time. We don’t know if Josh Okogie (20th) or Josh Hart (30th) will become great players. Even as a top 5 defensive player, Thybulle has limitations offensively that make him a tricky playoff fit. The book is still out on Miye Oni and in the NBA, his defense appears ahead of his offensive game.

The Jazz’s offseason needs are a backup point guard, a small ball center, especially if they move on from Derrick Favors, and wing defense (stop me if you’ve heard this one before). I personally don’t think you should ever draft for need. That leads to drafting Trey Burke when there are at least 2 hall of famers on the board. But you do have to also consider free agency. I will do a whole post later this week on the Jazz’s free agency prospects, but to summarize, there are a few useful centers and guards to be had around the veteran minimum, especially centers. The Jazz also have a $5 million traded player exception that I think could be used to obtain a third point guard. Given the dearth of defensive minded wings, who can guard 2 thru 4 in the league and given the number of such 6’6″-6’9″ athletes in the draft, I think the Jazz should look to take swings in that department. I mean, whatever they’ve been trying to do for the last decade has had, at best, average success. I’d take a flyer on athletes who maybe slide further down, or who played for Kentucky, or who just might need 1-2 years. I know that feels counterintuitive, but swings should be taken in the draft and the Jazz can bolster with free agency and trades. Besides, the Jazz need to be focusing on some rotational development of guys like Elijah Hughes, Udoka Azubuike and Miye Oni. One last thought: the biggest swings the Jazz have taken draft-wise in my lifetime were drafting Andrei Kirilenko and Rudy Gobert. 

Guys I would like to see the Jazz draft for these reasons:

Isaiah Todd– I get the concerns, but this guy is a long athlete who can absolutely shoot the ball. He would need time to develop in the G-League, but he has all the tools. Surprised that he has received no buzz this draft season. 

Brandon Boston– Fits the mold of the Kentucky guy with all the accolades that just gets mismanaged. Risky pick, but he has the physical gifts that (cliche alert) you just can’t teach.

JT Thor– He would be a lottery pick next year, so get him one year ahead of his development and groom him. Can play next to Rudy with polish.

Herbert Jones– Could step in first game of the season and guard at an NBA level. His offense needs work, but I think he could get there. Jones has been my favorite possible prospect for about 2 months now.

Greg Brown– Pure athlete with some of the most vicious posters you will see in college basketball. Not sure he knows how to play the game, but that is why the Jazz brag about the best development coaching staff. 

Vrenz Bleijenbergh– You just need to youtube this guy and see it for yourself. He’s a 6’10” guard that plays in Antwerp and reminds me so much of Andrei Kirilenko that I need this guy in a Jazz uniform. Probably stays overseas for a year or two, but this guy is an NBA talent.

Please let this man become a Jazzman.