With Lotto Order Set, Utah’s Other Picks May Signal Desires

The Jazz left Chicago with the 9th pick in the 2023 NBA Draft (Jeff Haynes via utahjazz.com)

There were no wild surprises in the NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday night. There was some slight reshuffling in the top five — league-worst Detroit fell all the way to fifth — but six through 14 went chalk. The Utah Jazz remained in the ninth position, a spot they had a 50.7% chance of retaining.

With Utah’s position finally set for their own selection, that might not be the pick that tells us what the Jazz are aiming to be in 2023-24. Most draft pundits have a tier change coming after the ninth or tenth selection. If we assume Utah’s brass broadly agrees with those tier delineations — and it’s entirely likely that they do not — then the choice at No. 9 might be less of a signal of their short term goals than their later picks, where they’ll surely have choices that represent diverging short-term philosophies.

None of Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller will fall to nine. To the degree that there’s consensus across draft sites for the next grouping of players, readers almost always see (in some order) Amen and Ausar Thompson, Jarace Walker, Cam Whitmore, Anthony Black and Taylor Hendricks. If those are really the best nine prospects in this draft, the Jazz are guaranteed to get a shot at one of them.

Some draftniks list Cason Wallace, Gradey Dick or others in the same breath as those nine because the draft is ultimately an eye-of-the-beholder type of exercise. And draft boards could still get scrambled in the ensuing five weeks. But ultimately, the point here is that when it’s the Jazz’s turn to pick on June 22, it might be fairly obvious what the (heavy sarcastic quotes here) “right” pick is, which means we might not be able to glean as much from their pick about the direction it signals.

On the other hand, what the Jazz do with their later picks might provide a clue as their intended competitive trajectory.

The No. 16 pick they’re owed from Minnesota comes at a spot in the draft where they’ll almost certainly have to make some choices between high-upside projects and guys who are ready today. If they draft someone like GG Jackson, Bobi Klintman or Bilal Coulibaly, it could signal that there’s enough patience around 2023-24 results to give a rawer prospect an opportunity to develop.

Klintman and Coulibaly in particular are recent fast risers on draft boards, but with inconsistent or incomplete résumés. The former averaged just 5.3 points per game at Wake Forest, but has caught scouts’ eyes with a combination of defense and shot making. He has shown enough shot creation skills at his size (6’10” with a +2 wingspan) to make people salivate at the idea of him as a secondary ball handler, but at this point he’s more of an idea than a sure bet. He’s 15th on the Ringer’s draft board, but doesn’t appear in some first-round mocks at all. He’s an enigma. Same goes for Coulibaly, who has averaged 11.3 while running alongside Wembanyama in France. His insane measurements (he’s a 6’7″ guard/wing with a 7’3″ wingspan) have people comparing him to OG Anunoby, but his shot is suspect and it’s not like he’s going against NBA talent every night.

It might be unfair to put Jackson in this category since he’s a 15-ppg scorer and has a stronger physique. But he’s also the youngest player in this draft class and his shot diet needs some work.

A selection like any of those three might be an indication that the Jazz envision a slower ascent. If on the other hand they use that pick to add a safer pick in Jalen Hood-Schifino or even Jett Howard (also young, but had the ball in his hands a lot in Michigan), maybe that means the idea is to help the current group start winning games.

The same could be true to a degree with the No. 28 Sixers pick they got in a trade with Brooklyn — if they keep the pick at all. 

ESPN’s Bobby Marks suggested in his Jazz offseason preview that Utah could deal that late first-round pick for multiple future seconds. That tracks with stuff I’ve heard about how the Jazz are light on seconds and wouldn’t mind having some so that they could trade some of their dozen future picks but put some slight protection on them to insure against sending a lottery-winning pick. For example, they could have three picks in 2025, which could come in handy if they start shopping for a star to accelerate their timeline. But they don’t have a second-rounder that year, which would make it harder to get a team to accept, say, 1-5 protection. Having seconds for some of those picks to convert based on light protections could sweeten those assets.

But if they keep the No. 28 pick, there will once again be plenty of options that represent opportunities to improve the roster now or reap for future sowing.

If they want someone who has been described as “steady,” Dariq Whitehead might make his way to the 28th spot. Colby Jones is considered an NBA-ready prospect.  Kris Murray and Jordan Hawkins have both been touted as intelligent contributors who have a solid feel for the game.

Or they could take a high-reward shot. Odds are long that late in an average draft anyway, so maybe they aim for the stars on the logic that a swing-and-miss pick at 28 is less costly than a swing-and-miss pick at nine.

That’s why this writer will be watching the Minnesota pick and the Philadelphia pick for a potential sign of how the Jazz view their near-term future.

Other post-lottery thoughts:

• There have already been rumors of teams ahead of the Jazz being willing to entertain moving their pick for a difference-making veteran. With all due respect, that doesn’t likely mean Kelly Olynyk or Rudy Gay. Some Jazz fans are already trying to connect those possibilities to Utah’s roster, and I just don’t see it. If Portland is going to trade No. 3, for example, it will be for a real difference-maker, not an Olynyk-Ochai Agbaji-#9 package. Their goal is purportedly to use that asset to boost Damian Lillard’s title chances in the near term as a Blazer. Unless the Jazz are willing to part with Lauri Markkanen for the third pick — and I don’t think they are — I don’t think anything the Jazz have really fits the bill.
• I vacilate between happy for the Spurs — a well-run franchise I generally respect — and being flabbergasted that the Jazz are going to have to deal with Wembanyama in their conference for the next 10 years. 
• The “rigged” talk isn’t as cute as people think it is. The Jazz were 80% likely to stay in ninth or worse, and more to the point, you wouldn’t be alleging it was rigged if the Jazz had climbed into the top four.
• Based on recent front office comments, my guess is the Jazz prioritize shooting, at least as a tie-breaking element. It’s why I have a hard time imagining they take a swing with someone like Rayan Rupert or Noah Clowney, as much as those guys possess some interesting things. Hendricks and Dick are knockdown shooters, though the latter might pose defensive issues. Brice Sensabaugh shot over 40% as an Ohio State freshman. He’s the only guy at that level who I consistently see in first round mocks, though plenty of others shot in the mid to high 30s.