Big Offseason Questions Could Be Answered in the Bubble

After a nice resurgence in his debut season with the Jazz, Mudiay enters free agency. (David Sherman via espn.com)

We are just days away from Jazz basketball returning and already there are questions that still need answering before Dennis Lindsey and Justin Zanik can prepare for the truncated offseason that will follow. The Jazz need as many data points as they can possibly get to help them make the best decisions they can as they build their roster for the 2020-21 season and beyond.

Perhpas the most complicated aspect of this upcoming offseason is the most basic one: what will the salary cap be? The pandemic has thrown a huge wrench into this. Adrian Wojnarowski reported back in January that the cap was projected to rise from $109 million to $115 million. After the season was suspended in March, ESPN’s Bobby Marks reported that the cap could drop $25-$30 million, if the season was officially canceled. Now, with games resuming for most of the league’s 30 teams, we can expect reality to land somewhere in between those figures.

This could put a huge financial burden on the Jazz and every other team. With all the uncertainty around revenues, there is no way of knowing exactly what the cap will be just yet. On Nate Duncan’s podcast, “Hollinger and Duncan,” he mentioned the league has floated the idea of keeping the cap about the same as this season’s, a way of preventing a sharp one-year dip. Wherever it lands, the implications will force every team into some difficult decisions.

The Jazz only have a couple unrestricted free agents this fall to worry about: Jordan Clarkson and Emmanuel Mudiay. Both of these guys will play a bigger role during the upcoming Restart and postseason due to the injury to Bojan Bogdanović. Rayjon Tucker and Juwan Morgan have partially guaranteed deals for next season, and the Jazz will have the ability to convert their two-way players, Jarrell Brantley and Justin Wright-Foreman, into restricted free agents. Brantley and Morgan might see some time in the bubble, because without Bogdanovic the Jazz get really small really quick.

Last year the Jazz traded the beloved Derrick Favors to the Pelicans to clear cap space to sign Bogdanovic. This coming offseason Favors will be a free agent and The Athletics’ Tony Jones (who is close with Favors) reported on his podcast Game Notes that a reunion is possible. “I will say that there’s some interest there, I would say, both ways,” Jones said. Who wouldn’t want to see Favors back in a Jazz uniform? The Jazz would have to use their mid-level exception since they don’t have the cap space to sign him outright.

Last season’s mid-level was worth around $9 million but as of now it’s anybody’s guess as to how much it will be worth next season. If it’s much lower than this, signing Favors back will become more difficult and unlikely. The other aspect to consider before signing Favors is that the Jazz already have a young developing backup center behind Rudy Gobert. Tony Bradley has been the talk of this midseason mini training camp in Orlando. If he shows well during the playoff run, the Jazz may want to use their mid-level on another position, like adding some size at the power forward spot behind Bogdanovic.

Mike Conley is the other domino because he can opt out of the final year on his deal, but no one expects that he’ll do this since it’s worth $34.5 million.

Last offseason Lindsey traded for Conley, hoping the former Grizzly and near All-Star player would help the Jazz get over the hump. His first season with the Jazz has been up and down, hurt by an early season injury to his hamstring. Since February, Conley has played his best basketball since joining the team. During this time, he has averaged 16.5 points, 5 assists and 3.4 rebounds a game. Some would scoff at those numbers, believing that it isn’t good enough for a player making over $30 million per year. In Memphis, when he signed that contract, he was the number one option on offense. Since joining the Jazz, he is probably the team’s third option behind Donovan Mitchell and Bogdanovic, meaning he doesn’t have the same number of opportunities as he did in Memphis.

With Bogdanovic out for the NBA Restart, this means more time with the ball in Conley’s hands to show what he can do in Quin Snyder’s offense, which was another challenging thing for Conley. In Memphis, he spent 13 years running the same system and learning a new one was a big adjustment for him.

Reports out of the Disney Bubble are that Conley looks much more comfortable and should have a huge impact on this team’s playoff run. If Conley struggles then the question will arise again whether the Jazz should try to trade him. This could be tough because of the unknown offseason and the size of his contract. One thing to remember is during the 2021 summer, it will be the offseason of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s free agency. This is when Conley’s contract comes off the books and many teams who are targeting Antekokounmpo will need to clear a lot of cap space in order to sign him. Having a large expiring contract like Conley’s could be quite appealing. So if the Jazz feel they don’t have a chance at Antetokounmpo and Conley still isn’t fitting in well, trying to turn him into something else would be a wise move.

Clarkson has fit in well as the Jazz sixth man since being traded for. He has given them the scoring punch they sorely needed off the bench. Clarkson is making $13.5 million this season and that maybe a bit steep. Offering him a number around what the mid-level is worth might be the right number for both sides to keep him a Jazz man.

Mudiay played well this season but found himself on the bench after the trade for Clarkson and the return of Conley. Mudiay’s role will increase in the bubble and more than anyone else on the Jazz, he can improve his stock the most for this upcoming free agency period.

Since the Jazz don’t have much cap space to spend this offseason, they will have to look for smaller contracts. Without Bogdanovic, they Jazz will start 6-foot-4 Royce O’Neale at power forward. The Jazz could use more depth, size and skill at that position. A few names to watch in the bubble are Dario Saric, a playmaking four, who hasn’t been the same player since his trade away from Philadelphia (who can blame him since his stops were in Minnesota and Phoenix?). Sacramento’s Harry Giles could be a good option as a combo power forward/center. Miami’s Derrick Jones Jr. has had a surprise season for them. A return of Jae Crowder or Marvin Williams could make some sense for the Jazz. Lastly, a low risk/high reward guy is Memphis’ Josh Jackson, the former high lottery pick of the Suns. He’s been a borderline bust so far but once he was called up from the G-League, he was making a difference for the Grizzlies.

The last thing and the most important item to watch during the playoffs are how well Gobert and Mitchell gel. Since both players tested positive for COVID-19, much has been reported about the uneasiness of their relationship. Both players have said they are good to go and have made peace between each other. From what we have seen of their interactions in the bubble, everything looks good. The story won’t be put to rest until we see them on the court and playing together in harmony.

The Jazz need their star players and the cornerstones of the organization to be on the same page. The Jazz can offer both long-term extensions this fall. Mitchell’s rookie deal is up after next season and the Jazz can offer him a maximum extension this fall. The Jazz most certainly will do this and they will hope that he’s willing to sign the full five-year deal and not want a shorter one (like the one Gordon Hayward signed), where he can become an unrestricted free agent sooner.

Gobert is an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2021 and can also sign an extension this upcoming offseason. This would keep him in Utah long-term and not let him test the market. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year is eligible to sign a super-max deal. Those deals are huge (up to 35% of the cap) and are very hard for small markets to do. Add in the pandemic to everything and it makes figuring out Gobert’s extension difficult. The Jazz would be more than happy to give him the regular max deal (up to 30 percent of the cap) but would Gobert’s camp be on board with this during these unprecedented times?

The Jazz have a lot riding on this season’s reboot and let’s hope it’s a long and fun playoff run.